Opening Comments
My last note was about the Palm Beach Par 3 Golf Course and restaurant with ratings. The most opened links were the five healthiest vegetables to eat from a heart surgeon and the three common eye problems that may indicate dementia years before a diagnosis.
The picture below is of the major donors to the Palm Beach Par 3 and it is quite impressive. Some of the most powerful people in town participated.
In recent months, I have had more friends go through open heart surgery, hip replacements, prostate cancer, and other surgeries. I am 55 years young and getting a little depressed at the aging process and inability to do what I could a short time ago. My shoulder pain is getting far worse, and another labrum surgery will be coming up in the fall after Jack goes off to college. Enjoy time with family and friends and do some fun things. Time flies.
Markets
Secondary Venture Market
NYC Fiscal Comparison 1970s and Today
Best and Worst College Majors for Income
Shrinking Home Sizes
Income Needed To Buy a House in Each State
Zombie Office Buildings
Video of the Day-Funny Prank by Jimmy Kimmel
I am not the biggest Kimmel fan and don’t find him very funny, but this prank was hysterical. It is a few minute video played on “Aunt Chippy.” In the skit, his family pranks Aunt Chippy by getting her a self-driving Waymo Taxi. The older woman being pranked does not understand self-driving and is screaming. I was laughing at her reaction, and when she finds out it is a prank done by her family, she goes crazy.
I Am Too Old
I will be 56 years old in November, and although I pride myself on being in shape, my body is breaking down, and I need surgery on my torn labrum in my shoulder. To be clear: no one ever accused me of being a genius, and after this story, you will understand why.
On Monday, I took my friend, Bill, to my club to play golf. Mind you, I rarely play anymore, and this was only my 2nd 18-hole round of 2025. It was not pretty, but I finished strong. We had a great time, and the greens were rolling like Augusta National.
I had a couple of afternoon meetings and was scheduled to play in the padel league at my club, Replay, at 6:30 pm. We missed our match last week, as my partner was travelling and needed to find a time to reschedule it. I got there early to do my warm-ups, and my partner, Jonathon, and I played our match. We won 6-0, 6-2. We decided to keep playing even though the match was over. We played two more sets and spent 1.5 hours on the court. I was tired and ready to go home. This is where my “brilliance” comes into the picture.
The team we needed to play for the makeup match was there, and we were trying to find a day to reschedule our missed match from last week. We could not agree on a day, and someone said, “What about now?” The right answer from me would have been, “No. I cannot do it. I am old and sore. We need to do it another time.” However, what came out of my mouth was, “Sure. Let’s do it.” I could not believe I said such a stupid thing. These guys are half my age, and one is a tennis and pickleball pro. What the hell was I thinking? I was told I was inadvertently dropped on my head between 700 and 900 times as a child, and my decision to play MORE padel did nothing to dissuade anyone from questioning my idiocy.
These guys were good, and the match was very competitive with long points. Just what I needed after 18 holes of golf and four sets of padel just minutes prior. We won the first set in a tie-breaker. We got destroyed in the 2nd set 6-1, and I think it was because I was delirious between being too tired, too sore, and too hungry to move. I was too focused on sitting down to take a break and missed some easy shots.
We now had to do a tie breaker to 10 points (must win by two). We came out hot and were up 4-0. I was getting too cocky as was my partner, and it quickly went to 4-3. We were down 7-6, and I was livid. Shockingly, we won 10-8, and I jumped into Jonathon’s arms as though I won the US Open to complete my career grand slam. It was not joy due to winning the match. It was elation that the match was over. I am not sure my reaction would have been any different had we lost.
I limped to my car, soaking wet, sore, tired, and mad at myself for the absurdity of my decision to play 7 sets (3 hours) of padel after playing a round of golf. I am too old for this #@$% and am now walking as though I rode bareback over Pike’s Peak. Given that I blame my wife for any bad decisions I make, I have a funny feeling this was all her fault. Jill, why did you make me play 7 sets of padel on Monday night? You should have known better.
Quick Bites
Markets had a solid start to the week until GDP came out Wednesday morning, showing the US economy shrank .3% in the first quarter relative to +.4% expectation. Remember, GDP was +2.4% in the 4th quarter of 2024. Imports soared 41.3% driven by a 50.9% increase in goods to beat the tariffs in the first quarter. The pull forward of imports is very distortive of data, and we need to see the 2nd quarter, but we do know that consumer and CEO confidence is shaken. Major indices were basically flat on the day, after being down 2-3% in the morning. YTD, the S&P is -5.3% and the Nasdaq is -9.7%. Based on the tariff debacle, consumer sentiment, earnings warnings, and global uncertainty, I would have thought the markets would be lower. Watch payrolls on Friday after the ADP report showed payroll growth slowed to 62k in April (120k estimate). Also, keep an eye out for tech earnings this week. If Snap is any indication (withholding guidance), we are heading lower. However, after the close, Meta and MSFT reported and beat and stocks were higher. The positive note is that rates are falling with the 10-year Treasury 18bps to 4.17%, over the past 5 days, and the likelihood of rate cuts is for a little over three cuts in 2025. Oil fell to $58/barrel and is -18% in April. Despite the big drop in oil prices, I am not paying much less at the pump.
Bloomberg story about the growth in the venture secondary market as more start ups have taken longer to grow, sell, or IPO. Those who prefer not to hold off have been turning to the “secondary” market, a venue for buying and selling stakes in a growing array of private companies. The market has existed in some form since the late 1970s, but has mushroomed of late. An estimated $122 billion in assets are expected to change hands on the secondary market in 2025, up from $25 billion in 2012, according to VC firm Industry Ventures. In the past, the secondary market was seen as a last-resort, rather expensive option for investors to offload stakes in a hurry. Now it’s become almost a feature of the VC investing process. Venture capitalists wrote large checks at record speed between 2020 and 2021, leading to sky-high valuations and unprecedented deal activity. The tide turned in 2022 as central banks raised interest rates to combat inflation, and the IPO market slammed shut. The amount raised in IPOs worldwide tumbled to $146 billion in 2024 from a peak of $641 billion in 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and VCs have been forced to prolong their investment timescales beyond the 10 years that were once typical in the industry. As a result, GPs have been resorting to the secondary market to generate the returns they need to keep their LPs on side.
It is 50 years since the NYC fiscal crisis of 1975 and this NY Post article outlines some similarities between today and the 1970s from a fiscal perspective. It is written by a “lifelong Democrat.” While pundits often misplay the notes of history to force a rhyme with today’s events, sadly, given the realities of the city’s current economic condition — a projected $5.5 billion budget shortfall for fiscal 2026 growing to over $13 billion in fiscal 2028 — the parallels to 1975 are unmistakable. In the 1970s, there was a mass exodus of high-paying industrial jobs from NYC, and today the financial services sector is losing jobs in the city. A decade ago, one-third of America’s total securities industry jobs were found in New York City. Today, it is less than one-quarter. Also, the pandemic caused hundreds of thousands of middle-class and well-to-do New Yorkers to leave NYC. In the 1970s, federal aid to NYC fell under Nixon. Today, DOGE and Trump are likely to make cuts as well. So many cities have been incredibly fiscally irresponsible and should start making tough decisions now to try to get back on track. Massive deficits cannot last forever.
I have been consistently critical of colleges and the skyrocketing cost of tuition and room & board. Top private colleges cost over $100k when all is said and done, and more kids are not getting the jobs they want upon graduation. There is a huge disruption coming from AI and robotics, and many schools are indoctrinating students. This CNBC article is entitled “The 10 worst-paying college majors, 5 years after graduation,” and is worth a read as your kids decide on majors. If you are going to go into a low-paying major, it makes far more sense to go to a state school to avoid incurring hundreds of thousands in college-related costs. The charts below are broken down by early and mid-career. The last chart shows the best-paying major from a different CNBC article from 2024. Interestingly, it is all engineering, math, and science for the most part that tops the list. Given AI disintermediating some engineering and coding roles, what does this list look like in 2035?
Tariffs
Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline
Trump: ‘I think we’ll have a deal with India’ on tariffs and trade
Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week as China tariffs start to bite
US treasury secretary says ‘there is a path’ with China over tariff negotiations
‘The Chinese will see this high tariff level is unsustainable for their business,’ says Scott Bessent.
Treasury Secretary Bessent says it’s up to China to de-escalate trade tensions
China insists no tariff talks underway with Trump and Xi or top aides, despite U.S. claims
Trump claims talks are underway. China disputes. Which one is it?
Trump tariffs live updates: China eases some US tariffs as Trump says he wants concessions
Chinese factories are stopping production and looking for new markets as U.S. tariffs bite
Agriculture isn’t nearing trade war tariffs crisis, ‘it is full blown crisis already’ farmers say
White House blasts Amazon over tariff cost report: ‘Hostile and political act’
I have no problem with what Amazon showing tariff cost.
Adidas warns it will raise prices on all U.S. products due to tariffs
Temu adds ‘import charges’ of about 145% after Trump tariffs, more than doubling price of many items
Politics
The entire DOGE project is polarizing. I believe that there is too much government waste and corruption in spending, and feel something needs to be done. I am not convinced DOGE is going about it properly, and it seems a bit sloppy on disclosures and pronouncements, and how they have carried out the cuts. I had hoped to see up to $500bn in annualized savings, and I questioned Musk’s $2 trillion goal. This BBC article goes into some detail about the cuts. There remains a lack of evidence for most of the claimed savings. I mistakenly thought the savings were annual, but the more I read about DOGE, it seems that some of the savings highlighted are over the total number of years of a contract. I am not diminishing saving money, but I want to be sure we are all on the same page, and the $160mm claim on the DOGE site may not be what it seems. I want DOGE to save money responsibly and be tighter around announcements and goals. Also of note: I do not believe the DOGE savings highlighted consider lost tax collections due to the staffing cuts or the amount of money that will be spent defending lawsuits related to DOGE. Another example is if DOGE does indeed cut 40% of the IRS staff, how many billions of lost revenue will be lost due to lower tax compliance and fewer audits? I do appreciate what DOGE is trying to do. However, I would like more transparency on the actual savings achieved, with some proof and fully factored in costs relative to savings.
Trump’s approval ratings fall as he nears 100 days in office, polls show
A trio of polls out Sunday show that a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency. His approval rating — which hovers between 39% and 45% in the three surveys— is the lowest for any newly elected president at the 100-day mark in more than seven decades.
Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell, claims to know more about interest rates
Trump, stop it.
Hawley Reintroduces PELOSI Act to Ban Congress from Trading Stocks
I have been critical of BOTH Republicans and Democrats for insider trading, but I have to admit that this bill’s name made me laugh. It’s called the Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments Act. Yep, that spells PELOSI. Based on Pelosi’s returns, she is one of the most elite stock pickers in history. Her 54% return in 2024 was impressive but her 65% return in 2023 stole the show. This article suggests her 10-year return is 720%. Impressive.
Carney wins Canada election, warns ‘Trump is trying to break us’
The United States is the villain of our story.' Nationalism surges in Mexico amid Trump threats
Donald Trump Jr. co-founds new private members club, Executive Branch, with a $500,000 fee
There is already a waiting list, and the initial members are all well-known. I surely would not pay $500k for this, but many others would based on the article. This just seems aggressive to me. Also, what happens to the club in 2028 when Trump is gone?
Mar-a-Lago face: The plastic surgery trend that’s taking over Trump’s inner circle
Defined by big lips, overfilled cheekbones, and pixie noses, Kaleigh Werner investigates the phenomenon sweeping through Trump’s inner circle.
Middle East
Harvard released the final report “Presidential Task Force on Combating Antisemitism and Anti-Israeli Bias.” The findings are troubling and show just how unfairly the Jews have been treated by a University that receives billions from the federal government as well as billions in donations from Jews. This thread highlights some of the troubling findings in the 300-page report. Why are US taxpayers subsidizing this crap? I hope you find the report troubling and would agree that changes must be made. Trump has done a lot of things wrong in his first 100 days in my opinion. His support of Jews and Israel is not one of them. It is his withholding of money that is bringing antisemitism on campus front and center. The full report.
Qatar and China Are Pouring Billions Into Elite American Universities
There is an old adage: follow the money. Many schools are taking massive sums of money, and it is no surprise that schools have altered policies in favor of those giving them billions. Foreign donors have given as much to U.S. universities in the last four years as they did in the previous 40, according to a new report by the Network Contagion Research Institute shared exclusively with The Free Press. The study shows an explosion in overseas funding for American schools between 2021 and 2024, with nearly $29 billion in foreign money donated during that period. Qatar has donated $6.3bn to US universities over the past 40 years.
Do not give him permanent citizenship.
Jewish Community Says ‘Never Again’ to Nike After New Ad Debases Holocaust Remembrance Slogan
Red billboards plastered along the London Marathon route on Sunday read ‘Never Again. Until Next Year.’
Other Headlines
US Consumer Confidence Plunged Again in April
It's Too Late: The Changes Are Coming
This is Ray Dalio’s latest diatribe about the tariff impact.
Wealthy consumers upped their spending last quarter, while the rest of America is cutting back
Plane tickets are getting cheaper as domestic travel demand weakens
Hawaii pod hotel hopes to attract Japanese tourists back to Islands
GM beats Wall Street estimates, reassesses full-year guidance amid auto tariffs
Super Micro shares dive after server maker issues weak preliminary results (-15%)
UPS in Talks With Startup Figure AI to Deploy Humanoid Robots
Good question. One of many I would ask.
'Rare atmospheric phenomenon' triggers huge blackouts in Portugal and Spain
Huge power outages have hit major cities across Spain and Portugal. Flights, traffic lights, trains, phone networks and card payments have been affected, with reports of panic-buying at supermarkets. Follow the latest here. Spain has been bragging about the renewable energy changes, and as of 2024 generated 60% of its energy from renewables. The percentage of renewable energy has tripled in less than 20 years in Spain. Articles suggest renewables will account for 81% of the power grid by 2030. Spain had just celebrated the fact that its grid operated entirely on renewable energy for the first time during a weekday and six days later the largest blackout in Spain’s history.
‘60 Minutes’ journalist chastises corporate parent in unusual on-air rebuke
The article suggests the Vatican has information collected from millions of confessions. Also, Pentagon whistleblower David Grusch claimed Italy uncovered a UFO during Mussolini’s reign in 1933. Either way, I want pictures and want to know. As a friendly reminder, I am willing to be abducted so I can write a Rosen Report about the experience. Given that aliens are probably smarter than humans, you likely know where I live.
Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption was so large its shockwave reached space, satellites orbiting Earth
Kobe Bryant’s First Game-Worn Jersey Sells For Record Amount In Auction
Katy Perry Struggling to Sell Tickets After Disastrous Rocket Launch
To be fair, ticket sales were soft before the rocket launch, and it only made matters worse. One article suggested the 11 minute trip produced 50 tonnes of carbon dioxide. Perry lectured people on climate change in the past. Sorry, you can’t have it both ways. People are right to call out Perry for her blatant contradictions.
Playful bear caught on video sliding head-first down children’s slide in Connecticut backyard
Customer rattled after snake falls from Mexican restaurant ceiling, into margarita during date night
19 must-visit bars in the greatest cities on Earth
From Hong Kong to London, these first-class watering holes perfectly capture the spirit of their city. Lots to check out. One not on the list that has been a top rated bar in the world called Double Chicken Please in Manhattan. Crazy drinks and the single best chicken sandwich I ever ate.
First look at the stylish food hall inside former Lord & Taylor in NYC
Looks amazing. I will be trying this over the summer.
Inside North Korea's brutal school system where children are forced to worship Kim Jong-un
The article suggests teacher-inflicted beatings were common, and students had to take hours of classes about Kim Jong-un on a daily basis.
Health Related
Suicide Reverberates Among Young Doctors
Nearly a quarter of residents have considered self-harm, and a fifth know a peer or colleague who has considered suicide in the past year, according to a 2024 survey by the Physicians Foundation, an advocacy group.
The exact amount of vacation time you need for peak mental and physical health, according to experts
I’m a therapist who’s worked with over 100 couples—the 5 most annoying habits I see in relationships
Amateur Athletes Are Turning to Ozempic to Raise Their Game
Runners, cyclists and other fitness enthusiasts say weight-loss drugs give them a performance edge, despite potential risks
Real Estate
This is an interesting article from The Street on shrinking home sizes and advice for first time homebuyers. One of the most significant barriers to homeownership is affordability. Rising home prices, down payment expectations, elevated mortgage rates, and closing costs have made it challenging for first-time homeowners to enter the housing market. As the size of the average U.S. household shrinks, the need for large and expensive homes is subsiding. To address the dwindling housing supply and waning demand, housing experts suggest ramping up the construction of smaller, more affordable homes to meet buyer needs and price ranges. Smaller homes are less expensive and more appealing to first-time homebuyers hoping to enter the housing market with a lower price range. Berkshire Hathaway Home Services shares why buyers on a budget should set their sights on smaller homes and the long-term payoff of lower square footage. The number of households without children is also rising, lowering demand for larger homes. During the challenging 1980s housing market, plagued by double-digit mortgage rates, construction projects pivoted toward smaller homes to meet buyers' needs. Smaller homes may be making a resurgence, as the average size of newly built homes dropped to 2,150 square feet in 2024, the lowest level in 15 years.
On a related matter, this CNBC article outlines how much you need to earn in every state to afford a house. The sharp rise in housing prices in recent years, coupled with higher rates and limited inventory, has made buying a home increasingly challenging. The affordability analysis revealed that, in nearly half the country, an average four-person household doesn’t bring home enough to afford monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced three-bedroom house.
Interesting WSJ article, “The ‘Zombie Buildings’ at the Heart of the Office Meltdown.” The impact on the area of a building being vacant or with low occupancy is severe. The of the restaurants and services around the buildings in downtown centers that were once vibrant. One of the biggest office towers in Chicago’s River North district occupies some 1.7 million square feet. These days, too much of that space is empty—and the whole neighborhood is paying the price. Five years after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. cities are still struggling to avoid commercial real-estate doom loops that have claimed areas such as downtown St. Louis. Fights like the one involving the River North building’s creditors are making it much harder for communities to rebound. Private-equity firms that snapped up large office buildings—using money borrowed by issuing bonds called commercial mortgage-backed securities—are often writing off properties in ailing business districts. That is leaving the buildings in the hands of bondholders, who sometimes duke it out to recover as much money as possible. The article outlines vacancies and goes into detail, especially about the Chicago market.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #782 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
THANK YOU