Suspension of Disbelief-Mission UNpossible
6-18-25
Opening Comments
My last note was about my customer service experience buying a guitar for my son Jack. The most opened links were healthiest breakfast foods, three heart attack symptoms you should not ignore and the CNBC article explaining how the Iron Dome works.
Today is my daughter Julia’s 18th birthday with a party tonight for a dozen of her friends. Hard to believe they grow up so fast. Happy Birthday Julia. Ill have pictures in the next note of her party.
Story of a scam and I was sent these concerning texts from a group claiming to be the DMV. The text suggests you have unpaid tolls. DELETE IMMEDIATELY and do not open them. All these scams are so concerning. I was sent the text below. Malware can get onto your phone.
Picture of the Day-Douglas Murray on Israel/Iran from 13 Years Ago
Market
Market Valuation
Consumer/Pressure/Median Net Worth By Age
College Jobs
Natural and Lab Diamond Prices
Average Car Accident Rates
Florida Housing Market Slowing
Homebuilder Confidence Tumbles
Residential Inventory Building
Best and Worst Rated Cities in America
Picture of the Day-Douglas Murray on Israel/Iran from 13 Years Ago
I am a huge Murray fan and went to see him speak last year. He is an amazing journalist and supporter of Jews and Israel. This 2-minute video from 13 years ago shows Murray outlining that Israel will attack Iran as the country approaches nuclear capabilities. He praises Israel for having the courage to do what no other country will. He also suggests that the world will condemn the attacks publicly, while privately praising them. I love this guy. He chides Europeans for not having the courage to do what Israel can.
Suspension of Disbelief-Mission UNpossible
At one point in my life, I was a big movie buff. I believe I have watched well over 1,200 movies over the past 50 years. My family and I went to the new Southampton, NY movie theater to watch Mission UNpossible-The Final Reckoning.
I want to start with some positives. The new theater was beautiful, clean, and had an amazing sound system. Tom Cruise knows how to do an action movie, and this does not disappoint if you are looking for a thriller despite a slow start. Cruise is a solid actor who has generated $12bn in revenues in the box office with his films from Mission Impossible, Top Gun, Eyes Wide Shut, Jerry Maguire, Rain Man and many others. A Cruise movie is always entertaining.
The suspension of disbelief is the act of behaving as if you believe that what you are seeing, hearing, or reading is real or true, although you know that it is not. Anytime you watch action movies, you require the suspension of disbelief given the absurdity of the plot and actions in the film. For the movie Mission Impossible-The Final Day of Reckoning, you require the suspension of disbelief on steroids. In my lifetime, I cannot recall a more ridiculous movie plot that required you to forget reality and go with the flow as much as this one.
To put it into perspective, there is a better chance of this happening to me next week than what happens in the movie: I am asked by James Dolan to both coach the Knicks and be the starting center. I win Powerball in seven states, I cure all forms of cancer, I climb Mount Everest barefoot, I buy an article of clothing at full retail, make a bad meal, win the starting QB and offensive tackle rolls for the Buffalo Bills, replace Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan and am elected the next President of the United States.
If you want to be entertained, go see the latest Mission Impossible flick. It is fun despite a slow start and long run-time. However, the absurdity of what transpires in the 2 hours and 49 minutes takes more than the suspension of disbelief. It requires heavy drugs.
Christopher McQuarrie was the director and co-writer. Bud, the movies was exciting, I will give you that. Let’s tone it down a notch to make it 5% believable for the next movie you write and direct. You can start by having me be the star of the movie. Tom Cruise costs you over $100mm. I will do it for the bargain basement price of $50mm. However, I need to be crystal clear on something. There are no stunts I will do. ZERO. The airplane scenes nearly had me puking. Also, all my most loyal readers get invited to the red carpet for the premier.
Go see the movie. It is entertaining, even if it is UNpossible. As a funny side bar, the night we went to watch Mission Impossible, we watched The Beekeeper with Jason Statham. As farfetched as this film was with Statham killing 100 FBI agents barehanded, it was believable relative to Mission Impossible.
Quick Bites
Markets rallied and oil sold off on Monday on the belief that the war in the Middle East would be short lived. Tuesday, stocks reversed course on disappointing retail sales and Middle East headlines. Equities were up slightly on Wednesday and despite the growing tension with the US more vocal about Iran. The equity market is not too worried, as oil was actually down slightly on Wednesday. However, since May 30th, Oil is +$15 or 25% due to the Middle East developments and is approximately $75/barrel after being as low as $55 six weeks ago. The Fed statement can be seen here and kept rates unchanged while raising the inflation forecast. The Treasury market has been volatile, but largely unchanged for the past week on 10-years with a yield of 4.38%.
In my last note, I wrote about my surprise that markets have been so resilient despite the backdrop. The 1st chart outlines how expensive the market is based on about 20 various metrics relative to historical averages. Yes, the chart is a couple weeks dated, but you get the idea. The S&P is +—- since 5/31.
I have often written about the bifurcated consumer and the growing number of families under financial strain. Rising prices for housing, healthcare, food, insurance and other items are crushing millions of American Families. In 2023, about 11% of Americans officially lived in poverty, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Even more struggle financially, though — and the share may be higher than you think. Many of the headline economic stats you see are based on “survival indexes,” says Gene Ludwig, founder of the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity, and don’t reflect Americans’ full financial picture. “What people are thinking about — a real shared prosperity — is not, ‘I can survive,’ but, ‘What does it take to live a middle-class life?’” he says. ”‘What does it take to be on the first rung, at least, of the American dream?’” According to LISEP’s analysis, most Americans don’t meet that standard. In 2023, the bottom 60% of households by income fell well short of the threshold for a minimal quality of life. That’s largely because wages have failed to keep up with rising costs, the researchers say. Medical premiums rose 301% from 2001 to 2023, they note, while travel expenses were up 170%. Rent grew by 131%. The cost of raising children, which includes saving for higher education, by LISEP’s estimates, grew by 107%. I thought this link, which outlines average and median net worth by age, was interesting.
More concerning news for college graduates. Finding jobs is harder in recent years. I keep writing that probably 40-50% of college students should not be attending four-year schools and should consider a vocational job requiring less time and money on education. Recent college and high-school graduates are facing an employment crisis. The overall national unemployment rate remains around 4%, but for new college graduates looking for work, it is much higher: 6.6% over the past 12 months ending in May. That is about the highest level in a decade—excluding the pandemic unemployment spike—and up from 6% for the 12-month period a year earlier. That rate, based on data from the Labor Department, applies to people ages 20 to 24 looking for work who have at least a bachelor’s degree. (This group is mostly people 21 to 24, since few people graduate college sooner.) Young graduates typically face a higher unemployment rate than their counterparts who have been in the workforce longer, but the gap is growing wider between older workers and the young. Entry-level hiring has fallen by 17% since April 2019, according to data from LinkedIn. Since the pandemic, hiring has risen in healthcare, construction and education but weakened in other areas that have traditionally snapped up many college graduates, including tech and financial services, said Kory Kantenga, LinkedIn’s head of economics for the Americas. I have spoken with young engineers who are worried about losing their jobs due to AI. What once was a guaranteed high-page job is now being disintermediated by AI. Amazon just announced that due to AI it will reduce the workforce.
Both real and lab grown diamond prices are down. The price of real diamonds is falling due to the rise of lab-grown alternatives, slowing demand in China, oversupply in the market, fewer young people getting married, and a broader shift in spending toward experiences over material goods. Prices for diamonds peaked in 2022, according to Tenoris, which tracks diamond sale prices. Since then, the average price of a one-carat natural diamond has fallen by more than $1,800. Lab-grown diamonds of the same size have seen average prices drop from $3,410 for a one-carat cut to $892..
I was shocked at this post on accidents per million miles driven. In a related note, this link is from Telsa with a great chart showing 7.5mm miles driven before an accident with self-diving. The US average is 800k miles.
Tariffs
Politics
Suspect Vance Boelter apprehended in Minnesota lawmakers shooting case
Inside Trump’s Extraordinary Turnaround on Immigration Raids
President Trump’s decision to pause most raids targeting farms and hospitality workers took many inside the White House by surprise. It came after intensive lobbying by his agriculture secretary.
Anti-ICE rioters may face domestic terrorism federal charges as Trump admin sends stern message
ICE agents confirmed to attend Miami’s Club World Cup matches as ticket sales and prices plummet
Tickets went from $350 to $20 as fears of ICE agents prevented illegals from attending games.
Tulsi Gabbard Joins Trump In Situation Room Amid Reports Of Rift With President
‘SALT’ deduction in limbo as Senate Republicans unveil tax plan for Trump’s spending package
Solar stocks plummet as Senate version of Trump’s tax bill cuts renewable energy incentives
Lutnick hails Trump’s $5mn investor visa as almost 70,000 apply
Program to grant foreigners legal residency in US in exchange registers 68,703 people on waiting list.
Middle East
Israel is crushing Iran and Iran is looking to negotiate. I feel Israel must completely destroy all nuclear facilities for this to be deemed successful. The ultimate success would be that coupled with regime change. Netanyahu suggest taking out Khamenei is still on the table. Trump warned “everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,” and this link shows many thousands looking to exit. Trump then demanded “unconditional surrender” by Iran after Israel eliminated Tehran’s most senior military commander. Khamenei warned “the battle begins” and launched hypersonic missiles. Iran is now threatening “irreparable damage’ if the US enters the conflict. Wednesday morning, Iran threatened “all out war” and is reportedly preparing to attack American military bases. Americans were warned to evacuate Israel on Wednesday, as the crisis is escalating. Trump suggested it is “really late” for Iran to begin talks after “getting the hell beaten out of them.” Iran’s military capabilities have been massively diminished by Israel and a coordinated strike on the Fordow nuclear site will eviscerate Iran. I understand why Trump is so divisive and many dislike him. However, what he has done for Jews and Israel than other presidents. If Israel eliminates Iran’s nukes and forces a regime change with the help of the Trump Administration, it is a HUGE win for the world. The Middle East should be overjoyed, yet they are condemning the attacks. Remember, the leadership in Iran HATES America, Israel, and Jews, and talks of eliminating them regularly.
Trump says he gave Iran ‘ultimate ultimatum,’ as U.S. prepares to evacuate citizens from Israel
Israel Takes Control of Iran’s Skies—a Feat That Still Eludes Russia in Ukraine
Power mismatch in Israel-Iran war shows importance of air superiority
15-ton mega bomb needed to destroy Iran's last nuclear facility – here's why Israel can't deliver it
Iran warns of strikes on US, UK, French bases: Why that would be dangerous
How the Israel-Iran war may develop
If Iran is losing a conventional conflict, there is a danger that it will resort to unconventional means of retaliation
Chinese embassy in Israel advises Chinese citizens to leave Israel ASAP
IDF Arabic spokesperson issues first-of-a-kind warning to Iranian residents
The IDF tries to protect civilians in Iran, while the Iranian troops purposely target Israeli civilians.
Donald Trump issues warning to Iran as Israel violence escalates
"If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before," Trump said in a post to his Truth Social site late on Saturday.
Israel destroys one of Iran’s last remaining F-14 Tomcats — iconic US fighter jet from ‘Top Gun’
Israel planned to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei, but Trump said no
Netanyahu claims Iran 'wanted to give nuclear weapons to Houthis' and Trump is 'enemy no1'
I do not believe this.
Iran targets Israeli civilians on supreme leader's order, senior cabinet minister tells 'Post'
Pro-Israel hackers destroy $90 million in Iran crypto exchange breach
Other Headlines
Europeans work far fewer hours per week than Americans,
I always knew broader Europe worked less, but I thought Germany worked more than other Western European countries. I was wrong.
Sam Altman says Meta offered OpenAI staff $100 million bonuses
Altman crushes Meta on innovation and claims Meta is offering massive bonuses to poach Open AI engineers.
NYC subway stabbing victim rushed to hospital with blade protruding from neck
Two men stabbed during morning rush at Grand Central subway station, suspect on the run
Open borders strike again.
Spaniards turn water guns on visitors in Barcelona and Mallorca to protest mass tourism
Here’s how much money you now need to make to be considered upper-middle class in New York
I don’t know why this would be any different for men.
JetBlue to cut more flights, other costs with break-even 2025 ‘unlikely’ due to weaker travel demand
I’m a travel writer. These are the best travel-size gadgets I never leave home without
Chicago schools face enrollment crisis with 150 buildings half-empty
Massive declines in students with projections to continue. Chicago spends $19k/student, but some schools are as high as $93k given the shrinking student population. It gets worse. Fewer than 1/3rd of Chicago public school students read at grade level. For 11th grade, only 22% read at grade level in the city. The governor of IL wants to run for President with a horrible track record on crime, COVID response, business growth, spending, education, pension issues, immigration, taxes…
UFO cover used by government to ‘hide a lot of things,’ former NASA agent says
This agent does not believe UFOs have visited earth and suggests it would be too far to do so. I still do not believe we are the only planet with life and am begging to be abducted and want pictures of me with aliens proudly wearing Rosen Report hats.
Health
A 41-year-old longevity doctor says his 'biological age' is 24. He takes 3 supplements daily.
This veggie of many names can boost immunity, fight cancer and promote weight loss
‘I thought my brain fog was dementia until I discovered it was a vitamin deficiency’
Eating this fatty snack every day can help you sleep better — scientists were surprised
The best exercises to banish ‘tech neck’
Looking down at your phone or computer can place strain on your neck and back muscles, with serious long-term effects. Here’s how to fix it
I’m a spine doctor — beware this surprising cause of back pain, and what you can do to improve it
Your brain physically changes when you work too much, scientists warn
Real Estate
I have written about the slowdown in R/E in Florida and the Southwest part of the state has been hit particularly hard. The previously hot real estate market of southwest Florida has recently seen a worrying slowdown. Properties that would typically sell quickly are now sitting unsold for months, sparking concerns among homeowners and real estate professionals. Fort Myers homeowners face growing frustration as their homes are taking longer to sell than they expected.
Local data shows properties are now sitting on the market for an average of almost 100 days — a sharp contrast to a couple of years ago when homes spent closer to 50 days on the market. In south Florida, homes are now taking 90 days to sell, according to CBS News Miami — compared to 60 days a few years ago. In Tampa Bay, the average number of days houses stay on the market has jumped as well, with ABC Action News reporting a rise in inventory and a shift to what agents are calling a buyer’s market. Higher mortgage rates, soaring insurance premiums, affordability issues, hurricane damage, and fewer people relocating than during pandemic are all contributing to the growing inventory. The Zelman survey of homebuilder confidence is at a 2.5 year low. The positive news is in many cases it has turned into a buyer’s market.
Confidence among US homebuilders fell to the lowest level since December 2022 in June, with potential buyers deterred by high mortgage rates and anxiety about tariffs and the economy. A gauge of market conditions from the NAHB slipped 2 points to 32 this month (well below the 36 exp), back near 13 year lows. This is CNBC’s take on the news.
In a related article to the bullet above, there is a discussion of the growing amount of inventory that is overwhelming buyers in various cities. After years of sellers calling the shots, some of the hottest pandemic-era housing markets are now grappling with a surplus of listings — and not enough willing buyers. According to real estate brokerage Redfin, April saw nearly half a million more homes listed than buyers in the market, the largest gap since at least 2013.
But this supply surge hasn’t translated into a wave of closings. Instead, home sales have stalled in many areas, particularly across the Southeast and Southwest, where inventory has ballooned past pre-pandemic norms. In Miami, for example, there were almost three times as many sellers as buyers in April, Redfin data show. These conditions mark a sharp reversal for the Sunbelt, which saw home values soar and bidding wars erupt during the COVID years. Now, many of those same metros — Atlanta, Austin, Phoenix and Tampa among them — are seeing listings linger, as affordability challenges, higher mortgage rates and buyer wariness take hold. Great chart below that outlines affordability issues that are in large part driving the weaker housing market.
San Francisco was ranked worst run major city in America. The next worst-run cities after San Francisco were Detroit (147th), Oakland (146th), New York City (145th), Philadelphia (144th), and Baltimore (143rd). The best-run city is Provo, Utah, according to WalletHub. McCann cited economic growth that is "hard to ignore," low crime and unemployment, and clean roads. List here. Of note, six out of the bottom 10 are in CA.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #794 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
