Opening Comments
My last note was about the famous weight loss bet that happened on the trading desk 20 years ago. The most opened links were Gen Z facing a job-market bloodbath and what you need to do to stay fit at every age.
A reader commented about my last note suggesting that my claim that L’industrie was inexpensive was not true. I want to clarify. I tend to go to expensive restaurants, and in NYC, dinner for two adds up quickly. Two people can eat at L’Industrie for under $30, which is cheap by most standards. Not cheap for pizza, but totally worth it. Well worth the wait and price.
Markets
AI Impact on Salesforce
401k by Age
Zohran’s Impact on NYC R/E
$250mm Land Assemblage in Palm Beach
DC R/E Impacted by DOGE
Pictures of the Day-Santi New Midtown Stunner
I am a big fan of Michael White of Marea and Ai Fiori fame, and he does not disappoint with Santi, a new Midtown Mediterranean that packs a punch. To be clear, my favorite pasta dish in NYC is from Marea (octopus and bone marrow fusilli). Although White and Altamarea Group parted ways four years ago, I am glad White is back giving me more of the food that I enjoy. Santi has done it right with spectacular dining rooms and an inviting bar. This will be a go-to place for lunch or a power business dinner. I went for lunch with one of my closest friends, Alex, and we both enjoyed a delicious two course pre-fixe meal at $72/person. You can also order a la carte. The dishes are all works of art and beautifully presented. The waiter brought out delicious focaccia with stunning olive oil and the tone was set. I started with the diver scallop that was stunning to look at and even better to eat. I tasted the amberjack, which was good but not overwhelming. Remember, I had eaten omakase at Noz 17 the night before. As usual, the pasta stole the show and the squid ink ravioli with lobster was delicious. I had the meat ravioli, and it was cooked to perfection, but I need to go back and try all the other pastas. The portions are a bit small for the price point, but given the amount of food I am consuming in NYC it is probably for the better. The culinary wasteland of Midtown definitely has a new winner on its hands with Santi. Michael, I won’t be upset if you bring my favorite Marea fusilli to Santi. Just a thought. All you Midtown workers, head over to Santi and grab a drink at the bar, the place looks amazing.
Food 8.6
Service 8.7
Ambiance-9.0 (power lunch or dinner)
Price-Fully priced especially for portions
Exfoliated Against My Will
The Rosen family has been in the Northeast for a few weeks, and my son Jack and I have been bouncing between NYC, the Hamptons, and Marion, Massachusetts. We had planned on going to our club, Saucon Valley, in PA, but there had been rain, and the course does not drain particularly well. Also, the heat wave will make it very hot. As a result, last minute, we decided to go to our club in Marion. There were very limited hotel options in the area and over the weekend with short notice only made matters worse. The result was a disaster. I would have rather spent triple the price and had a decent experience.
We stayed at the Seaport Resort and Marina in Fairhaven, MA, about 20 minutes from our golf course. For those longtime readers, this will bring back memories of our travels when Jack was playing tournament golf and I was staying at fleabag motels all across the Southeast. Who can forget, “Zachary, Louisiana. Why?” The famous bullet hole in the window from Zachary. “Pièce de Résistance at the Motel 6,” was another reader favorite.
Back to the hellhole called the Seaport Resort and Marina. There is a bridge that we caught four straight times that lasts 15 minutes when getting to or leaving the hotel. I went to check in and the woman behind the counter said, “there is live music at the bar.” I asked the question, “will I hear it from my room?” She replied, “Yes, it is quite loud.”
The tone was set for two awful nights at a gross motel. Parking was a disaster due to the rowdy bar crowd. We were in room 237 (same room # as the movie, “The Shining) which one would think would be on the 2nd floor. NOPE! I walked up four or five flights to get to the room. Inside, lights did not turn on. I had to take a shower, and the water pressure could not get the shampoo out of my hair. Then, I went to dry myself with the towel, or shall I say, 40 grit sandpaper. The bad news: drying yourself was painful. The good news is I exfoliated my skin, as I lost three layers drying myself. How about some fabric softener?
The bed sheets were awful, the mattress was terrible, and the air conditioning was loud. However, not loud enough to drown out the band. The Wi-Fi was so weak, I had to use my phone as a hotspot. How in 2025 can you not get Wi-Fi?
Of course, there were broken windows in the hotel. The pictures on the website are either heavily edited or old. The walls were paper thin and anytime a drunk guest walked down the hall, it was shockingly loud. Calling this place a resort would be akin to calling a box of macaroni and cheese a three Michelin Star meal.
Although I am getting too old for this crap, having dinner at the golf course with this sunset made up for some of my travails. Taken on Sunday and Tuesday night.
Quick Bites
The S&P closed at an all-time high Friday despite the numerous headwinds. YTD, the S&P and Nasdaq are now +5% in a stunning reversal from less than two months prior. The US Dollar has been under pressure again. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hit 97.32 on Thursday. Remember, it was 110 in January. Clearly, Trump’s discussion of replacing Powell and naming the replacement potentially early led to the dollar weakness on Thursday. Core inflation rose to 2.7%, higher than expected, which pushed up bond yields slightly. The 10 year is now at 4.26%, and 30 year at 4.81%. Oil was pummeled on the week with Brent -12% and WTI -11% as the cease-fire was announced.
I have written extensively about AI and the impact on employment. I have used the chart below too many times to count. Most of the engineers and computer science majors I speak with are in full freak out mode about the future employment opportunities in the space. If companies are using AI for 30-50% of the work today, what does that look like in 2030 as these models improve and more companies adopt the technology? Salesforce is accelerating its use of artificial intelligence in automating workloads, according to CEO Marc Benioff. “All of us have to get our head around this idea that AI could do things, that before, we were doing, and we can move on to do higher-value work,” he said in an interview, noting that the technology currently accounts for about 30% to 50% of the company’s work. Other technology companies have made similar moves, including cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike. Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski said the company has shrunk its headcount by 40% due in part to AI investment, while Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said the e-commerce giant will use artificial intelligence to reduce roles. Check out this short video of a “robo manicure” done with incredible precision. Yet another example of technology and robotics replacing jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests there are 212k manicurists and pedicurists in the US and growth was expected at 12%. Apparently, the BLS did not get the robot video. In yet another example of technology impacting employment, Elon Musk claims Tesla delivered its first car fully autonomously from factory to customer.
This CNBC article outlines the average and median 401k balances by age and the results are quite concerning. When it comes to our retirement nest egg, we can’t help but wonder where we stand compared to our cohorts. While Vanguard’s newly released “How America Saves” yearly report reveals that Americans’ 401(k) savings rates are at record highs — making up an average $148,153 balance and a median $38,176 balance, in 2024 — this is how Vanguard participants’ balances shake out by age group.
Tariffs
Trump trade deadline of July 9 ‘not critical’: White House
Trump makes a lot of threats on tariffs and seems to not follow through, and the market has looked passed his initial aggressive tone.
Donald Trump says US-China trade truce has been ‘signed’
I am struggling to find the exact details of the trade deal in terms of tariff levels. Trump did not announce specifics. However, Bessent did.
US says deal with Beijing will expedite rare earth exports from China
Trump ends all U.S. trade talks with Canada over digital services tax
Trump's tariff revenue is on pace for another monthly record in June
$27bn through June 25th, and expect slightly more by the end of month.
Wall Street economist who ripped Trump admits prez may have ‘outsmarted all of us’ on tariffs
I was very critical of the sloppy tariff roll out. I felt it was ill conceived despite the fact that I support a proper reciprocal tariff policy. Given the constant changes to the policy, the Trump Administration has gotten to a better place I thought possible. Stock markets are back to record highs despite the massive turmoil between geopolitical risks and a trade war. Shocking. However, this CNBC article suggests that prices are starting to go up and inventory down due to tariffs.
Politics
I mentioned in my last note that I did not believe the election for Mayor of NYC was over yet, and Bill Ackman pledged to bankroll any candida capable of being Mamdani. Bill Ackman said he and his wealthy associates are ready to pour “hundreds of millions of dollars” into the campaign for an aspiring politician looking to position themself on the national stage: “The risk/reward of running for mayor over the next 132 days is extremely compelling as the cost in time and energy is small and the upside is enormous.” I think Mamdani is the likely winner, but with wealthy people looking for a new candidate and money flows start, a newcomer has a shot. The person needs name recognition (Dimon, Clinton, type).
Mamdani ran a great campaign and got the young voters out in force with a smart social media campaign. Despite a lack of experience, he connected with critical demographics, especially middle- and high-income voters. Mamdani also did well with Hispanic voters.
Zorhan’s policy ideas are awful and will only further deteriorate the once great city of NY. Ideas including: city run grocery stores, freezing rents on over 2 million rent stabilized apartments, creating a Department of Community Safety, universal free childcare (6 weeks to five years), raising minimum wage to $30/hr by 2030, strengthening sanctuary city status by kicking ICE out of all facilities and ending any cooperation with the agency, and more. He has attempted to justify his phrase “globalize the intifada.” He accused the Israeli government of committing apartheid and genocide in Gaza. He has stated, “we want to defund the police.” He has suggested the prison system be dismantled. Zorhan wants to abolish private health insurance, decriminalize sex work, permit “safe injection sites” for drug use, and has asserted that he wants to spend $65mm on trans medical treatment, including minors. He wants to raise the corporate tax rate to 11.5% and impose a 2% incremental tax on the wealthiest NYers. To take it to another level, he proposed higher property taxes on “Richer and Whiter Neighborhoods.” Free buses and congestion pricing are also on Mamdani’s list. I cannot think of a worse candidate to run NYC and my desire to move eight years ago proves it was 100% the right decision. This link outlines policies from NYT. If Mamdani wins, the outflow of tax-paying private sector workers who aren’t tied to NYC will likely continue and may accelerate toward Florida and other places that are more attractive for work and family life. Of course, the wealthy with options will also continue leaving. I never thought I would utter these words but I long for Bill DeBlasio.
NYC mayor on Mamdani’s primary win: ‘The Jewish community should be concerned’
Zohran Mamdani’s victory in NYC mayoral primary leaves Wall Street ‘alarmed’ and ‘depressed’
CNBC host Jim Cramer quips wealthy New Yorkers may ‘get shot’ if Zohran Mamdani becomes NYC mayor
Peter Thiel on why 70% of Millennials say they are pro-socialist
Supreme Court Voids Universal Injunctions
The Supreme Court delivered a huge win for the Trump administration. The Court held that the federal courts do not have the constitutional authority to issue “universal injunctions,” i.e., injunctions that apply to everyone, not just the parties to the case.
Trump scores major win in birthright citizenship case as Supreme Court curbs nationwide injunctions
The US Supreme Court ruled Friday that nationwide injunctions issued by lower-court judges “likely exceed” the judicial branch’s constitutional authority — handing a major boost to President Trump’s push to end birthright citizenship. The Supreme Court did not address the merits of Trump’s actual order in its opinion, only the extent to which one of the nearly 700 district judges in the US could block an executive action from taking effect.
Amy Coney Barrett rips Ketanji Brown Jackson over dissent in birthright citizenship case
Elon Musk rips into ‘utterly insane’ Trump-backed megabill
ICE arrests 100+ Iranian nationals across US amid sleeper cell concerns
ICE arrests 130 Iranian nationals in nationwide operation as officials warn of possible sleeper cell activation. "We don't know who they are, where they came from, why they're here," border czar Tom Homan said last week. "This is the biggest national security vulnerability we’ve ever seen." Open borders have consequences. The damage done by the awful border policies under the Biden Administration will have repercussions for a long time.
Trump admin takes action after massive fraud uncovered at agency Dems tried to protect from DOGE
Harvard Kennedy School announces layoffs after Trump cuts billions in funding
ICE told Congress in September that over 13,000 immigrants known to have committed murder remained at large. Since then, only 752 have been arrested.
Trump threatens tough trade deal for Spain after it refuses to meet NATO defense spending target
"Vicious Circle": Immigration Is Costing France 3.4% Of Its GDP
Open borders have many costs. Europe is paying a high price for its awful border policies.
Again, horrible policies have caused law-abiding citizens great harm in California.
Middle East
There had been early indications from “unnamed sources” of limited damage. Those seem bogus. More likely significant damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran, Israel and US agree that Islamic Republic nuclear sites were 'badly damaged' despite leaked intel report.
Great pictures and graphics in the link.
Despite CNN’s Rogue Journalism, The IAEA Confirms the Centrifuges are Gone
The centrifuges at the Fordow site “are no longer operational.”
Trump Says He Would Bomb Iran Again 'Without Question' & Not Looking To Drop Sanctions Anymore
Iran's supreme leader claims 'victory' in his first comments after U.S. strikes
Khamenei, suggesting Iran was victorious is a bit of a joke. You have been decimated. More appropriately it would have been described that the Jews and Americans EVISCERATED you. Trump eviscerated Khamenei for the suggestion.
Iran executes three prisoners accused of spying for Israel in brutal crackdown in wake of 12-day war
Iranian FM says law passed barring cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog
Obama OMB director says Democratic Party is ‘becoming increasingly antisemitic’
Other Headlines
Q1 GDP Revised Lower As Personal Spending Unexpectedly Prints Weakest Since Covid
China’s industrial profits plunge 9.1% in May, signaling persistent deflation worries
Micron reports earnings, revenue beat and issues strong forecast
China’s Xiaomi sees shares soar to record highs as new electric vehicle draws strong response
Nike says tariffs will cost it $1 billion before price increases, supply chain shifts
AI-powered hiring tools favor black and female job candidates over white and male applicants
Union Pushes To Extend $30 Minimum Wage to All Los Angeles Employees
Industry groups warn that a $30 wage rate already approved for hotel employees threatens to trigger an ‘economic tsunami.’ Someone has to pay for the higher labor costs, and it will be the consumer.
The blood-curdling Permian monsters that ruled the Earth before dinosaurs
Fireball meteor believed to have crashed into Georgia home after sending shockwaves across Southeast
Health
What to Do During a Heart Attack: 5 Essential Tips to Survive
Synthetic dyes found in 19% of US foods and drinks — ‘worst offenders’ ID’d in new study
Experts say you should wash your hair this often in the summer — and their advice might shock you
I shower two to three times a day all year.
Deaths from heart attacks are way down. Here’s what’s killing us instead
Ticks spread to new regions across America, bringing dangerous diseases and need for vigilance
Check yourself regularly. The consequences of tick-borne illness are serious.
Real Estate
Within minutes of Zohran Mamdani clinching the Democratic nomination Tuesday night, real estate agents like Ryan Serhant were flooded with calls from clients looking to walk away from deals to buy apartments in NYC. High-end buyers are now looking to purchase property outside the city. “My number one job will be moving people from New York to Florida. Again,” Serhant told me. “Based on the results, clients are going to hold off on making any kind of investment in New York City.” According to a note I reviewed, one client who had made an offer on a Chelsea apartment sent her broker an email minutes after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo conceded to Mamdani. “We are going to take a break from looking until there’s more clarity on the mayoral election,” the client wrote. Having made the move to South Florida eight years ago, I know all the communities, schools, and golf courses from Jupiter to Miami. I can help those looking to escape the likely wrath of the socialist mayor. I have spoken with numerous finance and real estate professionals who are so upset with the Democratic primary that they are considering options on leaving the city even if Mamdani does not win. This RealDeal article also outlines how South Florida will benefit from the turmoil in NYC. Florida, a right-to-work state with no personal state income tax and a ban on rent regulation, has for years been the antithesis of New York, where developers and investors face strict rent control policies and requirements for union labor. Since Covid’s onset, South Florida’s pro-business climate made it a magnet for New Yorkers, supercharging the tri-county region’s residential and commercial markets. Kyle Bass urged Dan Loeb to “embrace your inner Texas” after the election shocker.
The highest end product from Miami to Palm Beach remains in demand and the likely new mayor of NYC will only keep demand high. An unidentified buyer or group of buyers has been quietly assembling one of the most valuable private estates in the country. So far, the buyer has paid roughly $250 million for four separate properties, and is pushing for more, according to people familiar with the situation. The roughly 3-acre assemblage, on exclusive North Ocean Boulevard, could pave the way for the creation of one of South Florida’s most impressive homes, rivaling those of billionaires like Ken Griffin and Jeff Bezos. The local markets in Palm Beach and Miami have been on an unprecedented upswing since 2020, logging record deal after record deal. The properties include two oceanfront lots previously owned by billionaire cosmetics heir William Lauder. Lauder, who had initially planned to keep the properties for personal use before changing his mind, listed the parcels for a combined $200 million in 2023. In total, the parcels span about 2.8 acres with 360 feet of direct beach frontage. The properties sold in February 2025. The deal wasn’t recorded in public records so the exact price isn’t known, but it came close to Lauder’s asking price, according to one of the people.
Most people in the D.C. region probably know someone affected by cuts to the federal workforce and government spending or might be concerned they will be. The same goes for area real estate agents. Listing service Bright MLS reports almost 40% of buyer and seller agents in the D.C. region worked with clients in May whose decisions were driven by federal government layoffs and cuts. And over half agents surveyed report that federal workforce reductions are impacting market activity.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #797 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
