Changing Behavior Impacting The Economy
8-3-25
Opening Comments
My last note was about how the Chase Sapphire Card got me into Don Angie for an amazing dinner. I had multiple readers call and email that they were signing up for the Sapphire Reserve Card after my note. The most opened links were a trainer’s hack for aging gracefully and the short video of the 5-year-old piano prodigy who performed at Carnegie Hall.
Picture of the Day-Over 55 Households Own a Growing Share of Assets
Markets
States Ranked by Tax Competitiveness Across All Taxes
American’s Time Online is Astounding-Mine Too
AI Disintermediating Jobs/Robot Video/10 Jobs Safe From AI
US Condo Market Weakness (Good Charts)
Waldorf Astoria NYC Hotel Opening
Zillow R/E Forecast
$80mm East Hampton Estate
Picture of the Day-Over 55 Households Own a Growing Share of Assets
In light of today’s theme piece, I thought this chart from Torsten Slok (Apollo) complimented the next section. Note the dramatic increase in assets owned by the over 55 population since 2001.
Changing Behavior Impacting the Economy
What are the impacts of these behavioral changes on the economy? Issues such as what age people get married, how have fertility rates changed, what homeownership looks like over the decades?
I want to state that I never know the ages of generations which are mentioned in the media so I thought I would outline them for everyone to be sure we are on the same page.
Today, individuals are saying “I do” much later in their lives than what was considered the standard age years ago. According to the Pew Research Center, in 1980, 33% of adults were married by age 21, and 66% were married by 25 years old. More than 40 years later, those statistics have dropped to 6% and 22%, respectively.
Fertility rates have plummeted across the globe, and the US is in a dangerous position. You need a fertility rate of 2.1 to maintain a population and the US is at 1.6 in 2024 (all-time low) after being at 7.0 in 1800 and 3.6 in 1960. In 1950, the US had 16 workers for every retiree and today, we are at 2.9 and dropping. The lack of workers supporting retirees is creating a massive hole in entitlements that cannot be filled absent raising the retirement age and doing a major overhaul to include means testing. Countries with dangerously low fertility rates include South Korea .8, China 1.1, Spain 1.1, Japan 1.2, Italy 1.2. and Canada 1.3.
The chart below has a link to the site that gives details. The red line is the median home price showing approximately $422k. The green line shows the affordability index of those in the 25th percentile of household income and the number is 2.55, suggesting this income level cannot afford a home. The blue line is the median affordability index showing 1.27, again unaffordable, as anything over 1 is unaffordable. The yellow line is the index for those in the 75th percentile of household income and that it at .72: well within the affordable range. No wonder why so many cannot afford home ownership!
Rising home prices and high mortgage rates have pushed the median age of homebuyers to a record-high 56 years old in 2024, up from 45 in 2021. In 1981, the median age of homebuyers was 31 years old, see chart below. Of note, mortgage rates in 1981 peaked at 18.6% and the median age of home buyers was 25 years younger than today when mortgage rates are 7%. Home prices have gone up so much in recent years coupled with higher insurance and maintenance costs as well as a sharp increase in mortgage rates.
Many countries are facing massive deficit issues with aging populations, crashing fertility rates, inflation, runaway healthcare costs, and a growing divide between the wealthy and poor. In the US, we are going down a dangerous path and running out of time to attack the massive budget shortfalls. Entitlement reform is needed now. Spending bills need to be cleaner. New bills need to be deficit reducing. Term limits in Congress should be required. I like Buffett’s idea of forcing Congress to have deficits of 3% or less of GDP to be reelected. We have been running 5-7% with low unemployment plus high stock and real estate prices. These policies are unsustainable.
Due to the fiscal disaster, aging population, declining birth rates and rise in health care costs, Social Security faces a mandatory cut in coming years. In just seven years, Social Security will reach a fiscal cliff that could leave millions of American retirees with drastically reduced benefits, according to a recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). We must raise the retirement age immediately. Denmark, Germany, France, Australia, Japan, Belgium, UK, Portugal, Spain, China, and others have raised the retirement age due to aging populations, declining birth rates and rising healthcare costs, yet the US refuses to make the right choice.
Quick Bites
Meta beat substantially and rallied 11%, while Microsoft rallied 4% Wednesday post earnings. Despite the strength in tech stocks, 9 out of 11 S&P sectors were down on Thursday causing the third straight down day in the S&P. Thursday post close, Apple reported the biggest revenue growth since December 2021 with +13% iPhone sales and overall revenue at +10%. Despite strong Amazon cloud revenue and earnings above expectations, the stock fell 7%. The company gave guidance for the 3rd quarter that was below expectations for income which dragged the stock lower. Friday, the sell off intensified on the heels of a weak jobs report (73k vs 100k expectations) and prior months were revised sharply downward. The S&P was -1.6% and Nasdaq -2.2% on the day. The weaker jobs report sent Treasury yields sharply lower with the 10-year -14bps to 4.22% and the 30 year -6bps to 4.82%. Based on the jobs report and move in Treasuries, now a 98% chance of two cuts by year end and the September cut is a forgone conclusion according to futures. Blackrock’s Rick Reider believes there could be a 50bps cut in September now. The US Dollar fell sharply against the basket for its largest daily loss in 2.5 years, as rate cut probabilities increased. I remain concerned that tariff inflation will show in coming months. YTD, the S&P is +6% (-2.4% on week) and the Nasdaq +7% (-2.2% on week). Oil fell almost 3% Friday on concerns of OPEC production boost. Both Visa and Mastercard had strong earnings due to the resilient consumer.
This Tax Foundation article outlines 2025 state tax competitiveness. The link goes into GREAT detail about overall ranking, corporate taxes, individual taxes, sales taxes, property taxes, and more. There are amazing interactive charts, and I strongly suggest my readers spend five minutes glancing through the link. There are a few surprises in article from ranking perspective. I thought Nevada would have been higher overall, but the state ranks poorly in corporate, sales, and unemployment insurance taxes.
This article suggests Americans spend a ridiculous amount of time online. Wired Americans spend nearly half their day online — splitting that time almost evenly between watching videos or TV shows and working, browsing and shopping, according to a new survey. “This new survey was eye-opening,” said Eric Bruno, senior vice president of product management for Optimum, whose telecommunications firm interviewed 2,000 US residents who have a home Internet subscription with any company for the poll. On average, screen-zombie Americans spend more than 10 hours daily accessing the Web. They spend 5.4 of those hours browsing, working, gaming, looking at social media, reading email or paying bills, the survey found. They spend another five hours streaming video or TV content. Besides streaming videos and TV shows, nearly 80% of customers said they use the Web to browse or pay bills, 73% scour social media, 72% shop online, 37% handle work assignments and 20% complete schoolwork. I spend an average of 11 hours/day on my phone, and then I need to type, edit, and research on my computer. I am online at least 13 hours/day. Humiliating.
AI Is Wrecking an Already Fragile Job Market for College Graduates. Companies have long leaned on entry-level workers to do grunt work that doubles as on-the-job training. Now ChatGPT and other bots can do many of those chores. This short video link shows the Figure AI robot doing laundry. In coming years, millions of these robots will be replacing all kinds of workers. This CNBC link outlines the top 10 most AI-safe careers including nursing assistants, painters, embalmers, and more. However, AI is not yet perfected as it is giving specific self-harm advice according to this article. This link shows a robot putting on a new roof. Lots of jobs are in play in coming years.
Tariffs
A lot more clarity on major tariffs and the chart below from Bloomberg does a nice job of summarizing where things stand. The NY Post has another good link for those without Bloomberg access.
Trump announces trade deal with South Korea, setting tariffs at 15%
Trump slaps universal 50% tariff on copper imports; metal’s price plunges
U.S. copper prices plunged as much as 18% in after-hours trading as soon as the White House announced the new tariff rate. Copper miners Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper were down about 10% and more than 6%, respectively. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on copper products, but not on the raw material.
Trump raises Canada tariff to 35% as US announces new levies for dozens of countries
TACO? Trump Announces He’s Backing Off August 1 Tariff Deadline With Mexico
Politics
A lot of people are arguing about the Trump policies around illegal immigrants. The ICE raids have caused many illegals to stop working on construction sites, restaurants, and farms that is wreaking havoc on these industries. I believe the open border policy of the Biden Administration was incredibly dangerous. I feel Trump should focus on criminals and bad actors including gang members. I also strongly agree with Famed economist Milton Friedman’s 1978 short speech about how the value proposition of illegal immigration has changed over time is quite good. Before 1914, our borders were open, and workers flocked to the US in search of work and immigration worked for both the US and immigrants. However, that changed and now too many illegal immigrants are getting US government handouts. Friedman said, “It is one thing to have free immigration to jobs, and it is another thing to have free immigration to welfare.” The US cannot take in millions of people each year and support them while we are running $2 trillion deficits. The math does not work. If you are a value-adding member of society who is working, paying taxes, and not breaking the law, I am fully supportive of a LEGAL immigration process.
Trump says he moved two nuclear submarines after Russia’s Medvedev warns U.S.
Abrupt resignation at Federal Reserve has big implications for Trump
The poll shows Mamdani at 50%, Cuomo at 22%, Sliwa at 13% and Adams only has 7%. For anyone other than Mamdani to win, there needs to be a substantial turnout and one candidate against Mamdani. Polymarket has Mamdani at 82%!
Office of Special Counsel launches investigation into ex-Trump prosecutor Jack Smith
Trump says he asked 17 drugmakers to take steps to cut U.S. prices within 60 days
In too many cases, US buyers pay far more than other countries for drugs. It is ridiculous.
Nvidia’s China-bound H20 AI chips face Beijing scrutiny over ‘tracking’ and security concerns
CBS News investigation of Jeffrey Epstein jail video reveals new discrepancies
I believe there is a massive cover up, and that he did not commit suicide. I hope this story does not go away until the files and lists are released.
Trump administration is launching a new private health tracking system with Big Tech’s help
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon and Trump appear to mend fences after previous public disagreements
The federal government is paying more than 154,000 people not to work
A 'beautiful' ballroom and a new Lincoln bathroom: Trump relishes remaking the White House
$200mm cost. If it is anything like his taste in his apartment or Mar-a-Lago, I do not support the gaudy design.
I am adamantly opposed to any pardon for Diddy based on what he has done over the decades.
Middle East
Following France and UK, Canada says it will recognize Palestinian state in September
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt sign declaration calling for Hamas to disarm, end rule of Gaza
Brown reaches deal with Trump administration, agrees to several steps against antisemitism
IDF to begin discharging traumatized reservists amid growing mental health concerns
Trump insists Hamas surrender will end Gaza humanitarian crisis: ‘RELEASE THE HOSTAGES!’
Mob of anti-Israel protestors clash with police after attempting to storm Grand Central Terminal
Other Headline
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he believes in stablecoins and blockchain
The PhD dropout was initially offered a “measly” $125mm four-year deal and turned it down.
Microsoft tops $4 trillion in market cap after hours, joining Nvidia
Reddit shares jump 20% on second-quarter sales and guidance beat
Figma more than triples in NYSE debut after selling shares at $33
Berkshire Hathaway operating earnings dip 4% as conglomerate braces for tariff impact
Shares of world’s largest brewer AB InBev tumble 9% on declining volumes
Coinbase shares tumble as second-quarter revenue disappoints
Samsung’s profit more than halves, missing expectations as chip business fell 94%
JPMorgan partners with Coinbase to connect bank accounts to crypto wallets
Ray Dalio Sells Last Stake in Bridgewater, the Hedge Fund That Made Him a Billionaire
Dalio also gives up board seat; Brunei’s sovereign-wealth fund now owns almost 20% of firm. Dalio, 75, said in a statement that he looks forward to Bridgewater’s future success in his role “as a client and mentor.” He remains invested in Bridgewater funds.
The income it takes to be in the top 1% of earners in every U.S. state—it’s over $700,000 on average
New-vehicle loan payments on track toward July record even with lower rates, J.D. Power says
Average new loan vehicle payment in July was $742/month (+1.6% from last year). Average new vehicle price was $45,063 or +1%.
Photos show battered face of the woman knocked out during Cincinnati brawl
Look at these awful pictures of a woman who went to a jazz festival and was attacked and nearly killed. This should be investigated as a hate crime.
MTA set to hike fares in latest crunch on subway, LIRR and Metro-North riders
She Was Murdered in Midtown Manhattan. The Internet Celebrated It.
What is wrong with people? Who celebrates murder?
I am 100% in agreement here.
AI in Wyoming may soon use more electricity than state’s human residents
Proposed data center would demand 5x Wyoming's current power use at full deployment.
Two Polish Heroes Every American Should Know
One of my biggest contributors sent me this interesting article about a story of two Polish heroes. One helped in the US fight for independence, and the other was instrumental in Poland’s independence.
Health
Research suggests that these particles, smaller than a grain of rice, can be harmful to your reproductive, digestive and respiratory systems, potentially leading to colon and lung cancers.
Trump Revives the Presidential Fitness Test for American Schoolchildren
Given the epidemic of obesity in children (20%) and reliance on screens, I am very supportive of the Presidential Fitness Test.
Study reveals simple lifestyle changes could help prevent dementia
Diet and exercise and improve your cognition, as outlined in the video.
Living Near Water Could Shorten Your Life? Here’s What Makes The Difference
Article suggests living near an ocean can increase life expectancy, while living near fresh water shortens lifespans. Although environmental factors like heat and air quality play a factor, clearly income differentials play a factor.
3 NYC hospitals among top in US; best hospitals in New Jersey and New York
Paralyzed woman reveals shocking effect of Elon Musk's Neuralink brain chip
Real Estate
Great article with solid data from the WSJ on the weakness in the US condo market relative to single family homes. The prospects for condo sellers are far bleaker than for those selling single-family homes, where supply is tighter. Despite high mortgage rates and home prices driving sales to a nine-month low in June, home prices still climbed to a record high last month, according to the National Association of Realtors. Prices aren’t adjusted for inflation. Condo prices tend to outperform when the market heats up and underperform when the market cools, said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at Intercontinental Exchange. Condos typically list at a 45% premium compared with single-family homes on a price-per-square-foot basis. This premium jumped to about 60% in 2021 when the condo market was super hot but sat at around 30% in June, said Krimmel. High list prices for smaller spaces might not seem as desirable when mortgage rates are around 7%. Condos are also more likely to be near shorelines, so the rising cost of home insurance might be finally deterring potential buyers as natural disasters increase, he said. In Florida, the condo market is softer in my markets, especially for the older buildings in light of the regulations post the Surfside building collapse. However, the highest end condos are still selling well. For example, in Miami, The Surf Club is selling in the $6k/foot range, and the new buildings are nearly sold out.
When I first moved to NYC in 1997, I could not find an apartment and Chase put me up at the Waldorf for almost one month until a corporate apartment became available. The iconic hotel is reopening in September after a debacle of epic proportions. The Chinese company Anbang Insurance bought the Waldorf for $1.95bn in 2014. The hotel closed for renovations in 2017, and speculation is $2bn was spent to restore the hotel to its Art Deco glory. There were 1,400 rooms in the hotel, and now there are 375 hotel rooms as well as 375 condos. If I lived in NYC, this is one of the worst locations to live other than proximity to your Midtown office. Fine for a hotel for a few nights. I would love to see the final economics of how it worked out for the owners. It cannot have been a good investment based on cost, construction delays, COVID… Had Anbang invested in the S&P rather than buying Waldorf, they would have doubled their money. According to the website, there are still condos available.
This week, Zillow economists published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will fall by 1.0% between June 2025 and June 2026. For calendar year 2025, they forecast U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, will fall -2.0%. “The rise in [active] listings is fueling softer [home] price growth, as greater supply provides more options and more bargaining power for buyers,” Zillow economists wrote in March. “Potential buyers are opting to remain renters for longer as affordability challenges suppress demand for home purchases.”
Essentially, Zillow believes that strained housing affordability—driven by U.S. home prices soaring over 40% during the Pandemic Housing Boom and mortgage rates jumping from 3% to 6% in 2022—is putting upward pressure on active inventory growth and short-term downward pressure on home price growth. Good interactive charts in the link.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #808 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
