Opening Comments
My last note was about my favorite restaurants in Midtown Manhattan. I heard from a handful of people involved in the restaurants that they were happy to have made the list. The most opened links were the video of the Gen Alpha speech (readers enjoyed it) and the habits Millennials have abandoned that Baby Boomers did to make them rich.
We are back in Florida after over two months of travelling. Jack checks into his dorm at Wake Forest on August 20th for what is sure to be an emotional time for the Rosen family. We are driving up on the 18th with a large SUV packed to the gills. Jack moves into a 95 square foot room (single). With Julia one year behind, the empty nest is soon upon us. Given the offensive weather from July to October in South Florida, we will be living there for seven months a year once Julia goes off to college next fall. I am excited that this will be my last August-October in Florida. I won’t miss the heat and humidity. Getting off the plane in Palm Beach on Monday was brutal.
Picture of the Day-Richest Countries & Most Spoken Languages
Markets
Record Corporate Stock Buybacks
New US Business Formations
Alarming Study on Smartphone Impact on Brains
Wine Consumption Trends
Ken Griffin’s $1bn Palm Beach Mega Mansion
120mm Square Feet of Retail Closures
NYC Rental Listings Dropping
Qatar Royal Family Owns More of London Than King Charles
Picture of the Day-Richest Countries and Most Spoken Languages
Visual Capitalist put out this list of highest GDP per capita, Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, and Median Wealth per adult. Some European countries do better than I would have thought. I was surprised to see median wealth in Canada so high. On most spoken languages, my kids are fluent in Spanish and English, as I felt that was most important living in the USA.
Structure=Success
I like structure. I feel being “tight” helps you become successful. When I was running trading businesses at JPM, I was on a schedule and had a plan each day. The night before work, I would outline what I wanted to accomplish the next day, and have lists of meetings t have, clients I wanted to speak with, colleagues I need to connect to, and things that I felt needed to be done. I do believe that scratching items off of your “To Do” list is rewarding and gives you a sense of accomplishment.
I was up by 4:45 am most days and either swam at the YMCA on 47th and 2nd or went to the Equinox in Midtown prior to work. I wanted to be at the desk between 6:00 am and 6:15 am. I liked to get my morning note out before 6:45 am. I also wanted to set the tone for the desk that, despite being the boss, I was in earl,y and feel that work ethic rubbed off on my team. The discipline of a plan and goals helped to ensure I accomplished more.
After work, I would run home to play with the kids for 30 minutes and then back out for drinks and dinners with multiple clients most nights. The day was long, but I was getting a lot done and felt good about my contribution to the firm. I made Managing Director by the time I was 28, so I did something right.
When I took 18 months off after leaving JPM, the structure I had was gone. I did not have to be anywhere. My cell phone was not ringing all day and night long with emergencies. I did not need to wake up before the crack of dawn. My “To Do” list was so short, it was virtually non-existent. Truth be told, I was miserable. I was not accomplishing much, and that goes against who I am as a person. My lack of organization made me feel worse about myself and my lack of daily accomplishments. As I started to realize my need for a regular framework, I became more efficient, productive and happier.
As my son, Jack, starts his collegiate career at Wake Forest this week, I have tried to impart a little wisdom on him to be sure he structures his day accordingly to allow him to accomplish his academic goals while having fun along the way. Not that Jack ever needs a push academically, but there will be no one to tell him to eat, study, go to class, make his bed, clean his room, or do the laundry. In a funny incident, I called my mom about a month into college and asked, how often should I change my sheets. She replied, “once a week.” It had been four or five weeks, and I was yet to change them. Kind of disgusting in hindsight. Jack, change your sheets every week.
Jack, have a schedule and plan to be sure you combine your academic responsibilities and your social desires. You will have a great deal of time given you only have classes for 15 hours a week. With 8 hours a night of sleep and one hour of eating, that leaves you 90 hours each week to study, do homework, go to the gym, play golf, play guitar, and make friends. That is a hell of a lot of time. Jack, you will be working for a living in short order and have far less free time. You could easily be working 12-14 hour days leaving little personal time. Take advantage of it while you still can.
I wish I could go back to college with what I know now. They say, “Youth is wasted on the young,” and I concur. Structure=Success. Have a plan and some semblance of a schedule to help make sure you reach your goals.
Quick Bites
Given the credibility issues with the jobs data, market participants are concerned about the quality of the CPI report which came out Tuesday and came in roughly as expected. CPI month over month was .2%. CPI ex food and energy (core) month of month was .3% vs .3% expected. CPI was +2.7% in July from last year and slightly lower than the 2.8% expected by the WSJ. However, prices excluding food and energy were +3.1% vs 3% expected. Stocks bounced over 1% on the news, while front-end Treasuries rallied, but 10 and 30 year Treasuries sold off slightly. The 10-year was +2bps and the 30 year was +4bps post the CPI data. However, both were -5bps on Wednesday. Futures suggest a 96% chance of a September cut and are pricing in a 100% chance of a 2nd cut and 30% chance of a 3rd cut before year end. The Russell 2000 outperformed larger-cap stocks by finishing +3% on Tuesday, relative to the S&P +1.1% and Nasdaq +1.4%. The VIX is back down below 15 relative to 60 in early April 2025. The S&P hit yet another new high on Wednesday and is now +10% YTD, while the Nasdaq is +12%. Mortgage refinancing shot pup 23% with riskier loans making a comeback.
Good WSJ article on the record pace of corporate stock buyback programs. U.S. companies have announced $983.6 billion worth of stock buybacks so far this year, the best start to a year on record, according to Birinyi Associates data going back to 1982. They are projected to purchase more than $1.1 trillion worth overall in 2025, which would mark an all-time high. The biggest repurchasers include tech giants Apple and Google parent Alphabet. Big banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley also are leading the charge. Strong earnings growth and tax cuts have helped fill corporate coffers, while powering stocks out of their tariff-driven April rout and lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh records. At the same time, the confusion around trade has stalled many businesses’ investment plans, making buybacks a more appealing use of incoming cash.
Torsten Slok published a chart outlining new US business applications. There is a clear uptick since Trump took office. Clearly, lower regulations have helped to lower the administrative burden for new business formation.
I have written extensively about the impact of smartphones on children and believe they are the largest cause of issues for youth today. I love the book, The Anxious Generation by Jonathan Haidt and wrote about the impact of social media on teens. I also wrote about social media’s impact on gender dysphoria here. A new study suggests that smartphones are ruining our brains at a rapid rate. In less than a decade, conscientiousness — the trait most closely linked to responsibility, follow-through, and self-control — has collapsed among young adults. For those aged 16 to 39, it’s not a gradual erosion; it’s a plunge from respectability into the low 30th percentile. Older adults (who aren’t addicted to smartphones), meanwhile, remain essentially unchanged. In less than 15 years, we’ve tethered billions of brains to an always-on, infinitely stimulating “meta-world” — a hybrid of the broader digital ecosystem, the AI-powered feed that tells you what is conventionally known, and social media platforms that distort reality by promoting the loudest, most self-promotional sliver of humanity. This is not a tool for quiet reflection; it’s a behavioral slot machine that lives in your hand. Take a few minutes to read the entire article. Jonathan Haidt just wrote an article after a survey regarding kids on how to get them off their smartphones, and you can find the results here. Haidt makes some concerning statements regarding children’s lack of ability to socialize given parental restrictions which only results in more screen time.
I love wine. I have my wine drinking rules which mean no drinking during the day (no exceptions), but when the evening rolls around and I am cooking dinner, I can open a bottle. I have written a great deal about changing behaviors impacting industries. The wine industry got a boost in 2020 when Covid-fueled lockdowns and stay-at-home orders juiced demand. But that spike has proved to be fleeting. World wine industry consumption fell to the lowest level in more than dix decades. The wine industry is no different and is under pressure as the baby boomers age out and the younger generation does not drink wine as much. This is a good state of the US Wine Industry 2025 report from Silicon Valley Bank. The report suggests that “no and low alcohol” products are growing. More health-conscious consumers are clearly moving away from alcohol. At the same time, there are so many new options (hard seltzer, craft beers, cannabis products and mocktails). Clearly, high wine prices are also playing a factor. I also feel the growth of marijuana is hurting wine and alcohol sales for the younger generation. I buy a fair amount of wine each year and am seeing more aggressive deals from dealers who are “hung” on unsold inventory. To put wine consumption changes in France into perspective, per capita consumption in 1926 was 136 liters, 125 liters in 1950, hit 95 liters in 1980, and 71 liters in 1990. By 2000, France per capita wine consumption fell to 58 liters and is now closer to 40 liters. Since 1926, wine consumption per capita is down 70% in France.
Tariffs
What U.S. consumers can expect from new tariffs on imported goods
Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sales revenues to the U.S. government
Coffee and tea prices continue to ramp up due to tariffs, worrying retailers
Politics
FBI dispatching agents to D.C. streets as Trump weighs calling National Guard
I am fully supportive of cleaning up the streets to protect innocent civilians. I feel numerous other cities could use the help. However, we need consequences for crimes, and if these bad actors get arrested only to be let out with a slap on the wrist, these efforts are wasted.
ICE Begs Supreme Court for Right to Racially Profile Immigrants
The Department of Homeland Security is asking the Supreme Court to allow it to question anyone who speaks Spanish “to support reasonable suspicion that the person is here illegally.”
Trump considering 11 candidates for Fed chair, including David Zervos and Rick Rieder, sources say
I know both of these candidates and feel they could be interesting choices. Given Zervos has hair like Jesus, I am partial to having a long-haired Fed Chair. I have golfed with Rieder, and we won a Pro-Am with Billy Horshel in 2015.
Democratic whistleblower told FBI that Adam Schiff approved classified leaks to target Trump
Intelligence staffer who worked for House Democrats called the alleged behavior 'treasonous' and 'illegal.' The Dem whistleblower went to the FBI in 2017. Article suggests other leak investigations will be out in coming days.
Inflation report: July unchanged; Trump tells Powell lower the rate now
Trump tells Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon to replace bank's economist over tariff predictions
Trump, your behavior towards the Chairman of the Fed is inappropriate. Your commentary makes it harder for him to cut rates. Also, you should not try to get people fired who disagree with you. The economist at GS is far smarter than you are, and I happen to agree with him. Listen more. Tweet less. I always surrounded myself with people who were better than me at things where I was not strong. Made me smarter. I listened to people who knew more than me. Trump, you are doing many things well. Trying to influence the Fed and fire GS employees, not so good. GS stands by the call that consumers will bear the brunt of tariffs.
Trump threatens Fed chair Powell with ‘major lawsuit’ over HQ renovation cost
The Trump administration has ordered colleges and universities to disclose the race, SAT score, and grade point average of all of their applicants — those admitted and those rejected.
Newsom says California to draw congressional maps to 'END TRUMP PRESIDENCY'
Andrew Cuomo proposes ‘Zohran’s Law’ after privileged Mamdani clings to rent-stabilized apartment
Despite negative headlines and absurd policies, Mamdani continues to do well in the betting markets with an 80% chance of winning.
Mamdani leads Cuomo by 19 points, while Stefanik is catching up to Hochul
Big Tech workers top donations to Mamdani campaign in headache for Google, Meta
New York’s Medicaid costs dwarf rest of nation
The Empire Center estimates New York could save between $19 billion and $48 billion a year if it matched the per-resident spending of states like Kentucky, Massachusetts, or New Jersey.
6 more states restrict purchases of processed 'junk' foods
The article is about SNAP (food stamps) benefits being restricted to not allow soda and certain processed foods.
Ex-government officials pen letter blasting Kash Patel's FBI 'purge'
Moscow troops make advance in Ukraine just days before Trump set to meet with Putin
Cannabis stocks rally after Trump says he is weighing drug reclassification
Although I am supportive of a reclassification, I believe that cannabis is a gateway drug and have seen too many kids get addicted and ruin their lives.
Middle East
Hamas’ Own Data Claims Most Gaza Deaths are Combat-Aged Men
Hamas’ Ministry of Health recently published a list of the more than 60,000 alleged deaths in Gaza in this war, up to the end of July. Astonishingly, its breakdown by age and gender supports Israel’s claim that the IDF is trying to avoid civilian casualties in the strip.
32,113 deaths were men of combat age (15–65)
12,875 were children (under 15)
12,067 were women (15–65)
3,094 were elderly (65+)
It's not just Israel's traditional enemies who slander the Jewish state.
A war scholar suggested “there is no historical precedent for a military providing the level of direct aid to an enemy population that Israel has provided to Gaza.” Israel is held to a different standard. The world hates the Jews and Israel. No other waring county provides such aid, yet Israel is vilified at every turn.
Watch this very short video outlining how and why Islam intends to dominate the world and extinguish every other religion. If that requires fighting to achieve it, so be it.
Rolex founder was suspected Nazi spy
MI5 wanted Hans Wilsdorf blacklisted because of his ‘strong’ sympathies for Hitler’s regime.
Other Headlines
BofA Says Record Number of Investors See Stocks Overvalued
Most crowded trades: long Magnificent Seven (45%), short dollar (23%), long gold (12%).
Very telling sign that the US is on course for recession
More than half of US industries are already cutting jobs — a glaring red flag that a recession is near, a leading economist has warned.
Nvidia claps back against Chinese accusations its H20 chips pose a security risk
SoftBank founder Son makes his biggest bet by staking the Japanese giant’s future on AI
Restaurants are under threat as costs skyrocket and consumers cut back
Data Center Energy Demand Will Double Over the Next Five Years
Circle shares rise as second-quarter revenue jumps 53% on strong stablecoin growth
How one real estate startup is taking on record heat this summer
Interesting technology to help you manage temperatures in large buildings. It,’ now installed in over 10,000 buildings in 10 states.
Inside the $10,000 Job Search: Career Coaching, LinkedIn Fees, Résumé Help
The costs of finding work climb as job hunts stretch over months; ‘It’s trying to be louder than anyone else’
How much money you need to be considered wealthy across the U.S.—it’s over $2 million in most places
Average U.S. household debt reaches $152K; Here’s a breakdown of what Americans owe
Good data in the article.
Human connection to nature has declined 60% in 200 years, study finds
No sex please we’re celibate: why Gen Z have ditched hook-up culture
South Korea’s military shrinks by 20% as low birthrate hits recruitment
South Korea’s military has shrunk by 20% in the past six years, largely due to a sharp decrease in the population of men of enlistment age for mandatory service in the country with the world’s lowest birthrate, according to a report. The data is staggering, with a fertility rate of .75, compared to 2.1 required to maintain a population. The US is now at 1.6, down from 3.6 in 1960. South Korea will see the population shrink from almost 52mm in 2020 to 36mm by 2072.
Latest NYC subway shove victim is ER doc who was on his way home — just ‘happy he’s still alive’
What about National Guard on the NYC subway?
Mentally ill gunman shoots, kills 3 at Texas Target — caught after crashing stolen car
NYC schools are still failing to teach over 40% of kids — and it may soon get WORSE
AWFUL results despite spending $36.3k/per pupil each year.
This is the most attractive hobby a man can have, according to women
Why do drug dealers want to kill their customers?
Allianz Life Insurance data breach exposes 1.4 million Americans
Explosions at US Steel plant in Pennsylvania leave 1 dead, 2 missing and multiple injured
Meteorite fragment that slammed through homeowner's roof is billions of years old, predates Earth
Harvard physicist says massive interstellar object could be alien probe on 'reconnaissance mission'
Health
Colorectal cancer diagnoses soar among younger adults for one key reason
I’m a heart surgeon and gut health expert: I love eating these 6 high-protein foods—that aren’t meat
Neurologists reveal the top 3 foods to avoid to protect your brain and nervous system
Neurologists share foods that can lead to muscle paralysis, epilepsy and other neurological illnesses
Ozempic users aged backwards by more than 3 years in new trial
Real Estate
Ken Griffin (Citadel Founder) is in process of building a rumored $1bn mega mansion on Palm Beach Island. The 50,000-foot single story house will also include a vast garden. The article suggests construction costs of $150-400mm. In speaking with people familiar with the project, shockingly, Griffin may be spending $4000/ft for construction costs, which would get you to $200mm on the house. For perspective, I can build what I consider to be a very nice house for $800/ft. I cannot imagine the finishes at over $3,000/ft. Good map in the link. The article suggests Griffin has assembled 27 acres.
120 Million Square Feet: Store Closings In The US Are On Pace To Set A New Record High In 2025. For perspective, the retail space in the Macy’s in NYC is 1.25mm feet. The GM building in NYC is 50 stories and 1.7mm square feet. 120mm square feet of retail closures year to date is a huge number. 5,822 store closures were recorded as of June 27, compared to 3,496 closures announced during the same period of 2024.
NYC’s rental market is tight, and the broker fee ban has only reduced listings. According to this Real Deal article, since landlords were prohibited from charging tenant’s fees for agents they hired, listings fell 74%. “This sharp decline suggests landlords are using other listing sources as they adjust to the new FARE Act requirements,” UrbanDigs’ co-founder John Walkup wrote in a statement.
Qatar’s royal family owns more of London than King Charles. The AI-Thanis control 1.8mm feet of prime real estate, including Harrods, Claridge’s, 95% of the Shard, 25% of Mayfair, 20% of Heathrow and a chunk of Canary Wharf. They also own the Dudley House, reportedly the most valuable private residence in London. The 44,000 square foot mansion with 17 bedrooms was restored according to this Vanity Fair article (includes pictures).
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #811 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
Thanks!
Love your Reports and this weeks section on Structure=Success, on point 100%!