Opening Comments
My last note was about a gem of a restaurant in Boynton Beach, Florida (Nicholson Muir). The most opened links were the #1 thing to do to save money on bills from a millionaire and the incredible story of the glam waitress who dated Tony Bennett, Frank Sinatra, & Warren Beatty while working at P.J. Clarke’s. The story on what great listeners do was a close third.
Twenty-four years ago terrorists attacked America on 9/11. I am in shock that day was so long ago, as I recall it as though it was yesterday. Never Forget.
Despite my love of fishing, I placed my fishing boat on the market. It is a 34’ Jupiter center console with triple 300 Yamaha engines. If you know anyone interested, please let me know. We are downsizing our life as an empty nest is soon upon us, and we will only be in Florida for six months a year. Email me at rosenreport@gmail.com if you know anyone interested in the fishing boat. It was just detailed and looks amazing. This is the link to the Boat Trader ad and includes pictures and a short video. If you know any fishermen, please send the ad link to them.
Markets
UK Debt Crisis Coming?
AI Corporate Job Disruptions
Billionaire Spending on Longevity
Tennis Dominance Then and Now
Great Housing Charts
Industrial Demand Weaker/Manhattan Office Stronger
Big Discount on a Madison Avenue Office Building
Picture of the Day-Breakfast at Brennan’s New Orleans
Brennan’s in the French Quarter of New Orleans has been in business since 1946. It has won countless awards and is considered one of the best restaurants in town. We went for breakfast and were the first to enter. In a nice tradition, the staff is waiting by the hostess to welcome you. Service is snappy. The food is solid, albeit fully priced. Julia wanted the $20 cinnamon roll that comes with delicious vanilla cream icing. It is massive and decadent. I had blueberry and ricotta pancakes with lemon curd. They were very good, but a bit over the top on the blueberries. The place is touristy, but worth a look given the history and interesting décor. Food does not disappoint, but I prefer the less-traveled places away from the French Quarter. Reviews of Shaya and Lilette in New Orleans are coming soon.
Food-7.8
Service-8.6
Ambiance-8.1
Price-Full
I Am Sharply Cutting Back My Wine Consumption
If you have been a reader of the Rosen Report for any period of time, you know I love my food AND my vino. On most nights, I am cooking up gourmet meals while sipping on a bottle of wine, which continues when I am eating my dinner.
I decided to take a week off from drinking, and I felt great, slept better, lost weight, had less acid reflux, and had more stamina. When we went out to Sunny’s steakhouse (amazing review coming), it was a week after I took the alcohol break and ended up drinking red wine. My sleep was not great that night, and I felt awful the next morning. I cannot believe I am saying this, but I am going to sharply cut back my alcohol intake. To be clear, I have not had beer in 35 years and do not drink much liquor apart from a tequila now and again. I had been more of a wine guy who enjoys pairing my wine with my food.
As I considered taking a step back from wine, I started researching the impact of alcohol on your body. Drinking too much – on a single occasion or over time – can take a serious toll on your health. The whole body is affected by alcohol use–not just the liver, but also the brain, gut, pancreas, lungs, cardiovascular system, immune system, and more.
Interestingly, in 2025, we are at a record low for drinking alcohol in the US, as seen in the chart below. The consecutive declines in Americans’ reported drinking the past few years are unmatched in Gallup’s trend and coincide with recent research indicating that any level of alcohol consumption may negatively affect health. This has been a sharp reversal from previous recommendations that moderate drinking could offer some protective benefits.
I found this article written by a man who stopped drinking and his health and fitness improved dramatically. He looks far better at 53 than he did at 40!
To be clear, I am not done with wine. I hope that day never comes; I have just decided to partake less frequently and do my best to drink two glasses at a sitting and not overindulge. I also think after years of being a big Cabernet and red blend drinker, I am going to start leaning back into Chardonnay. I just don’t feel great after drinking big reds. Based on the drinking data outlined above, I am not alone in cutting in alcohol consumption. Another benefit to cutting back on wine is that dinners are far cheaper when you don’t have a bottle, or at least a few $30 glasses.
Quick Bites
On Tuesday, job growth was revised down by 911k through March, a historically large revision that only further brings data quality into question. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey response rates have crashed from 60% in 2019 to 43% today, and only 651k out of 33mm total businesses are surveyed, meaning .85% of all businesses in the US participate. The Labor Department’s Office of Inspector General opened a probe of BLS jobs and inflation data collection, given how bad the data has become. Stocks continued to rally with another new record for the S&P & Nasdaq as of late Wednesday, as the stock market is anticipating lower rates. Bad news (jobs) is good news for lower rates and stocks. Treasury yields have dropped in the last week on the heels of the weaker jobs data, as the likelihood of rate cuts is higher due to the weaker jobs data. The result is the 10-year yield is 4.03% (-18bps in last week) and the 30-year is down to 4.68% (-21bps in last week). Also contributing to lower Treasury yields was the better-than-anticipated PPI data which showed a .1% DECLINE in August. Mortgage demand jumped as rates fell down to 6.49% for 30-year fixed mortgages. Despite my inflation concerns, the data is better than I expected and further solidifies Fed cuts. Oil rallied 1.5% as explosions rocked Doha, Qatar on Tuesday, as Israel is reportedly targeting Hamas members.
Interesting WSJ article, “Is the U.K. a Canary in the Coal Mine for a Heavily Indebted World?” I continue to write about my concerns regarding debt levels, deficits, aging populations, declining birth rates, rising interest burdens, skyrocketing healthcare costs, and a shrinking workforce relative to retirees. This past week, U.K. long-term borrowing costs hit their highest level in decades, causing Treasury chief Rachel Reeves to shoot down suggestions that the heavily indebted country is heading for a fiscal crisis. Next year, the U.K.’s interest payments are expected to hit £111.2 billion, or roughly $150 billion, twice what the country spends on defense. U.K. government debt, currently below 100% of gross domestic product, is projected to hit 270% of GDP by the early 2070s, pushed up by an aging population and spending on healthcare and pensions. Massive deficits in good periods of low unemployment, high stock markets, and high real estate prices are UNSUSTAINABLE. Until politicians are willing to make tougher choices, the path of pain will continue.
This CNBC story, “AI is not just ending entry-level jobs. It’s the end of the career ladder as we know it,” outlines AI’s impact on careers. Current CEO of Hewlett Packard Enterprise Antonio Neri rose from call center agent at the company to chief executive officer. Doug McMillon, Walmart CEO, started off with a summer gig helping to unload trucks. It’s a similar story for GM CEO Mary Barra, who began on the assembly line at the automaker as an 18-year old. Those are the kinds of career ladder success arcs that have inspired workers, and Hollywood, but as AI is set to replace many entry-level jobs, it may also write that corporate character out of the plot. The rise of AI has coincided with considerable organizational flattening, especially among middle management ranks. At the same time, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is among those who forecast 50% of entry-level jobs may be wiped out by AI as the technology improves, including being able to work eight-hour shifts without a break. The “Godfather of AI,” believes the technology will create massive unemployment and send profits soaring. All the uncertainty in the corporate org chart introduced by AI — occurring at a time when college graduates are struggling to find roles — raises the question of whether the career ladder is about to be broken, and the current generation of corporate leaders’ tales of ascent that have always made up an important part of the corporate American ethos set to become a thing of the past.
Longevity and health span are two hot topics in recent years. This WSJ article, “The Billionaires Fueling the Quest for Longer Life,” goes into detail on the topic. Silicon Valley giants Peter Thiel, Sam Altman, Yuri Milner and Marc Andreessen are among the boldface names behind the influx of money in the longevity industry. Thiel’s quest for longer life spans nearly a dozen companies—some of which were funded by his venture firm and others by a nonprofit foundation he backed—that raised more than $700 million, according to the Journal’s analysis. I am all for doing things to improve your health and longevity up to a point. The freakshow Bryan Johnson has gone overboard. I am not willing to live a miserable life to live longer. Eat healthy, exercise, and get good sleep. I do need to spend more time on hyperbaric chambers, as I do think that is one thing that can be a difference maker. Billions are being raised, and some believe that a person alive today will live to 150 years old. I don’t want to live that long. What quality of life would you have?
Starting in the Australian Open in 2004 through the US Open in 2023, Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic won 65 out of 79 men’s major titles. Roger also won the 2003 Wimbledon title. The dominance was amazing. Federer won 20 majors, while Nadal took 22 and Djokovic won 24 during their illustrious careers. Before the big three, the most men’s majors were 14 held by Sampras. During the run of the big three, they had periods of 18, 13, and 11 straight majors between them. Today, we have two young guns in Alcaraz (22 years old) and Sinner (24 years old) who have won the last eight majors. After Alcaraz dominated Djokovic in straight sets, Djoker had some comments about overcoming the new sheriffs in town. He said, “They are just too good,” when referring to Alcaraz and Sinner. Djokovic is 38 years old, and they are approximately 15 years his junior. “It will be very difficult for me to overcome the hurdle of Sinner/Alcaraz in the best of five in the grand slams.” As a sports fan, I love watching greatness and dominance. Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, Wayne Gretzky, Mike Tyson, Michael Phelps, Tom Brady, Lionel Messi, Floyd Mayweather, Serena Williams, Usain Bolt… Thankfully, it looks as though we will be blessed with dominance from Alcaraz and Sinner for years to come. With the win on Sunday at the US Open, Alcaraz took the world #1 ranking back.
Tariffs
Potential Trump tariff refund bill could top $1 trillion as Supreme Court fight looms
It would be an awful outcome and weaken our trading position if these tariffs are cancelled. SCOTUS will hear the tariffs case.
Treasury Secretary Bessent warns of massive refunds if the Supreme Court voids Trump tariffs
Postal traffic to US down by over 80% amid tariffs, UN says
USPS lost $9.5bn in 2024. Inefficiency of the US Government.
China’s shipments to U.S. plunge 33% in August as overall exports growth hits a 6-month low
Politics
I am an unabashed capitalist and believe that capitalism, while not perfect, is the only economic system that makes sense and has proven so historically. Capitalism is the best allocator of labor and resources relative to other economic models. It is not just me; famed economist Milton Friedman agrees in this short video. (BRILLIANT) I grew up with limited means: no father, public school, washed dishes and cleaned toilets starting at 11 years old, and became a Managing Director at JPMorgan by my 28th birthday. It is not just my personal story–capitalism has led to more prosperity for more people, less poverty, and more freedom than any other economic system. Anything is possible under capitalism with hard work, some luck, and perseverance. Please tell me why millions of people are trying to “break into” America every year, and no one is trying to break into China, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea… Capitalism is proven to work, and socialism fails at every turn. Look at Europe vs. the US and economic growth over the past 20 years. The US has dwarfed Europe, and bad policy across the pond is to blame. Of the 25 top market cap companies in the world, 22 are from the USA (mic drop). This new Gallup poll shows support for capitalism continuing to decline, while socialism support is steady to increasing. IF you want socialism, move to another country. If you need my advice or counsel, I give it for free to 150 kids, young professionals, and seasoned veterans as part of my mentor program. Rosenreport@gmail.com.
Trump ally Charlie Kirk reported shot at Utah college event
President Trump, Obama, Bush –Second Term Job Approval
Trump blocked from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook as lawsuit plays out
Trump administration launches Chicago immigration crackdown Operation Midway Blitz
Trump delivers warning to Florida about the dangers of nixing school vaccine requirements
Biden officials raised concerns with how he issued pardons, used autopen
Biden was in bad shape while President of the United States and his family, administration, and the media covered it up.
The Significance of the Recently Released Russia Hoax Documents
How many media outlets that spoke of Russian collusion ever came to correct the record?
11 Westchester Public Retirees Receiving $200k or More in Pensions
According to new data posted on SeeThroughNY.net, the Empire Center’s government transparency website, Bennorth-Hubertus, is receiving a pension of $ 503,128. One of the things weighing down city, state, and federal governments is funding requirements for pensions.
Dr. Oz is saving the government more money than Elon Musk and ‘DOGE’ ever did
Trump’s Medicare and Medicaid chief cracks down on payment practices and insurance companies — but costs are still rising.
'I'm gonna punch you!' Top Trump officials pulled apart as threats hurled at swanky dinner
Apparently, Bessent was aggressive with Pulte, claiming he spoke negatively about Bessent to Trump. Bessent was also involved in an altercation with Musk.
Trump loses bid to overturn $83.3 million judgment in E. Jean Carroll defamation case
Macron struts on world stage as revolt over France’s soaring debt puts his PM on the brink
Debt now stands at 113% of GDP and was 55% in 1995. The French government collapsed on Monday as MPs voted to oust the Prime Minister.
Poland strikes down Russian drones that violated airspace in potential escalation of Ukraine war
First time NATO has fired in the Ukraine war. So much for de-escalation post Trump’s meetings with Putin and European leaders. Russia strikes Ukraine cabinet offices in unprecedented deadly assault with over 800 drones
The end of the war does not seem near.
Trump ready to punish Putin, Russia after latest deadly assault on Ukraine
Trump massively overpromised and underdelivered on Russia/Ukraine.
WW3? French Hospitals Told To Prepare For A "Major Military Engagement" Within Six Months
The leaked letter also reportedly explains that mass casualties are to be expected not just from its own forces, but wounded soldiers from across Europe, and that France would be acting as a ‘rear base.’ It outlines how French hospitals would need to prepare for up to 50 THOUSAND beds allocated to wounded civilians and military personnel EVERY MONTH.
Comedian Arrested at Heathrow for Edgy Tweets
He tweeted about transgender people and was arrested at Heathrow by five officers. His tweets were offensive, not criminal.
Middle East
Responding to Trump, Hamas says it’s ‘ready to immediately sit at the negotiating table’
Israel orders Gaza City residents to leave as military prepares to occupy city
Red Sea cable cuts disrupt internet across Asia and the Middle East
Sirens fail as Houthi drone hits arrivals hall at Ramon Airport in southern Israel
IDF hits 3rd Gaza City high-rise in as many days after evacuation warnings
Pro-Palestinian activists are disrupting one of America’s most powerful tech giants.
France Faces Backlash After Its Decision To Recognize Palestinian Statehood on Rosh Hashanah
The leadership of Palestine was involved in the murder, rape, and beating of Israelis, and countries want to recognize it as a state? By that thinking, Jeffrey Dahmer should be nominated for a children’s award or a Nobel Peace Prize.
Other Headlines
Wells Fargo CEO sees ‘more downside’ to U.S. economy as lower-income consumers struggle
Lumber Prices Are Flashing a Warning Sign for the U.S. Economy
Wood prices are sliding and mills are cutting back because of uncertainty over tariffs and a building slump.
Everything Apple just announced: iPhone 17 Air, AirPods Pro 3, Apple Watch Series 11 and more
Finally, some bigger changes to help drive purchases. Better battery life too.
‘We’re all kind of in shock.’ Oracle’s revenue projections leave analysts slack-jawed
Stock was +35% or +$235bn in market cap in a day. Cloud revenue jumped 77% to $18bn in the last year, and in fiscal 2027, it will be $32bn, then $73bn, $114bn, and $144bn in subsequent years! Ellison’s net worth jumped by almost $100bn on the day.
Robinhood shares soar 15% after getting long-sought addition to S&P 500
Stock +214% YTD with a $104bn market cap. Impressive.
StubHub IPO: Ticket reseller aims to raise up to $9.2 billion, pricing at $22 to $25 per share
IPO and M&A activity is up under Trump after weakness due to “Liberation Day.”
Lachlan Murdoch cements control of Fox, WSJ media empire in new family deal
Meta is paying a 24-year old AI researcher $250 million — echoing the dot-com bubble
Yet another failure by the criminal justice system. Consequences for crime are mandatory. Cashless bail for violent offenders is moronic, and Brown was free on cashless bail despite years of violence. The pictures are awful. She never had a chance.
Glamorous law student sentenced to 25 years in hellhole Dubai prison over coke
This will not end well. Don’t go to the Middle East to do cocaine.
I love the idea of a tech detox, but the idiot father did not alert anyone to the plan. The boy missed school.
What is wrong with people? Why is this funny? I hope they catch them and they rot in jail. Let’s hire hackers to find them. Between Aug. 21 and Aug. 25, at least 10 universities across the US were thrown into chaos after fake active shooter calls sent armed federal and local law enforcement agencies to lockdown campuses, launching students into full-blown panic.
Southern California man’s unbreakable glass foils smash-and-grab robbers targeting jewelry store
Divorce Plunged in Kentucky. Equal Custody for Fathers Is a Big Reason Why.
A law setting 50-50 shared custody as the state’s standard was hailed as a victory for fathers, but critics say it puts mothers and children at risk
Hippo capsizes boat in Ivory Coast, leaving 11 people missing — including children and baby
Shocking radar footage shows Hellfire missile fired by US military bounce off UFO over ocean
The UFO was struck by a 100 lb missile, and it bounced off.
Health
Happiness Once Rose With Age. Now It Only Falls For The Young
Scientists find musical link to boosting brain function for life
A single dose of this hippie drug can reduce anxiety — even without therapy
Cocaine levels are 50% above the US average in rich and famous hotspot Nantucket, sewage tests show
Knee pain is becoming more common in younger adults for two specific reasons
Orthopedist reveals why knee issues are rising among those in their 30s & 40s.
Real Estate
I was sent an email with a bunch of interesting charts on housing. The first chart is from the end of 2024, but we have not seen a meaningful change in prices in 2025 in total. “Inflation-adjusted home prices are now a near-record 100% higher than the long-term 130-year average… The only 2 times in history that home prices were this far above the 130-year average were 2006 and 2024.” The 2nd chart shows that approximately 50% of homeowners are locked in at 4% or less. Only 20% are paying 6% or more. The larger percentage of homeowners locked in at a low rate makes them unwilling to sell as the new mortgage is sharply higher than the existing one. I found the last chart from a reader showing annual US housing price growth since 1950.
Two very different articles with respect to the demand for industrial and commercial office space. Demand for industrial space fell for the 1st time in 15 years. Just 27 million square feet of space was absorbed in the first half of this year, and demand fell by 11.3 million in the second quarter alone — the first quarterly drop since 2010. The national industrial vacancy rate in July was 9.1%, up 10 basis points from June and up 270 basis points from July 2024. However, Manhattan office leasing is on track to hit the highest volume since 2019. Manhattan office leasing increased more than 20% in August compared with July to 3.7 million square feet and was well above the 10-year monthly average of 2.72 million square feet, according to a new report from Colliers. If demand continues at the same pace for the remainder of 2025, Manhattan’s yearly volume would exceed 40 million square feet for the first time since 2019. Amazon took over 1mm square feet in Manhattan since November 2024. As a result, the supply, known as the “availability rate,” of newer office space, has dropped to 6.7% compared with the rate for older, prewar buildings, at 17%. Manhattan’s overall availability rate fell to 15%, the lowest since January 2021.
Billionaire Amancio Ortega’s firm is selling a Manhattan office building for less than half the price it was purchased for nearly two decades ago. A unit of Pontegadea, Ortega’s family office, is in contract to sell 366 Madison Ave. to the Sioni Group for roughly $50 million, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the details are private. The price is a 57% discount to the $115.5 million Ortega’s firm paid for the building, located near Grand Central Terminal, in 2006. Brokerage firm Eastdil Secured is handling the sale. If you factor in inflation, the $115mm would be $179mm, and that would mean the $50mm sale price is a 72% discount to the original purchase price. This also does not consider any upgrades made to the building over 20 years.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #818 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
Eric, I congratulate on deciding to decrease your wine intake. I believe you will continue to see better wellness results including mentally as you go. I wish you the best. While more are choosing to drink less, some parts of society still wonder about those kinds of choices. Peace.