Recency Bias Hits Home (Literally)

11-2-25

Opening Comments

My last note was about my dinner at Tamarind in Tribeca. The most opened links were the video of the plane going into Hurricane Melissa and life-saving things a cardiologist wants you to know about cholesterol. Also, interesting comments on the Boca Resort flood video.

News Quiz-7 for 8.

Remember to change your clocks back one hour today, as sadly, the bill to make daylight savings time permanent failed in the House.

Remember, Tuesday is election day. Whoever you want to support, be sure to get out and vote. Critical election in NYC for mayor. If the election does not go your way and you do not participate, you have only yourself to blame. 23% turnout in 2021 in NYC, with 1.1mm votes. A federal judge blocked Trump from requiring Americans to provide proof of citizenship to vote.

As a reminder, I am in NYC a few times in November and will be meeting with numerous readers. This assumes my flights take off with all the chaos.

November 4-5th, November 10-12th, November 18-21st

• Video of the Day-Dr. Peter Attia on Longevity

• Recency Bias Hits Home (Literally)

• Quick Bites

  • Markets

  • AOL Valuation History

  • Manhattan Exodus? Bloomberg Does Not Think So

  • Great Wealth Transfer

  • Berkshire Hathaway Earnings

  • Aidan Hutchinson Contract Extension

  • Big Mac Price by State+Jersey Mike’s Story

• Middle East

• Politics

• Other Headlines

• Health

• Tariffs

• Real Estate

  • $85mm Manhattan PH

  • Gates Owns a Lot of Land

  • States Americans Want to Move in 2025

  • Mortgage Rates

  • $7bn Data Center in MI

Video of the Day-Dr. Peter Attia on Longevity

I am a big fan of Dr. Attia, and his 60 Minutes interview focused on longevity. He is viewed as the guru on the topic and had some interesting thoughts. I get so many questions on this topic from my readers, so I expect you will find this interesting. This link is to Attia’s website. His best-selling book, Outlive, gets amazing reviews. On a related note, this article is about an island off the coast of Honduras where people are going for longevity start-ups.

Recency Bias Hits Home (Literally)

I had a strange situation in my home recently and blame recency bias for my flawed thought process that forced me into the wrong conclusion. Recency bias is the cognitive tendency to place too much emphasis on recent experiences or information when making decisions, even if older information is more relevant. The memory of a recent event is fresher and more accessible, causing people to overvalue it and make potentially irrational judgments.

As my readers know, as the empty nest status is upon us, I am shedding assets. I have been spending a lot of time and money on the house to make it perfect for the sale, and installed four brand new air conditioning units. This takes large teams of people, so for a few days, my house had 6-8 people to take out and install the new units. One unit took longer to install than the others, and they were here until about 6:30 pm. That evening, as I was going to sleep, I started hearing strange noises. I kept looking around and could not determine the origin of the sound. I can best describe it as feedback from a microphone too close to a speaker or something. Every time I heard it, I jumped up and it was gone. This went on all night. I was up from 11 pm to 3 am due to the loud intermittent sound.

I was convinced it was due to the AC units as that installation process created such commotion in my home that day. It was also recency bias that was impacting my view as to the cause of the issue. I know the cell of the AC installer and knew he would be sleeping, but I was texting him in the middle of the night. I suggested the installers may have done something wrong. I was worried an improper installation could cause some serious problems. Not sure why I thought this, but it was 2 am, so cut me some slack. Turns out that the AC units had NOTHING to do with the noise.

That morning, my AV guy came to the house to fix a shade, and I had mentioned the sound system was acting up. He must have done something in the AV closet that led to these horrific sounds happening, but because I was so convinced it was the AC system, I never considered the sound system as the issue. I blame recency bias.

As an aside, living near the ocean means salt air damages anything outside. Check out an 8-year-old AC unit that was properly cared for and had quarterly maintenance. Hence, the new units.

Quick Bites

• Big tech earnings. Alphabet topped $100bn in quarterly revenue for the 1st time with 34% cloud growth, sending the stock +5%. However, Meta shares were -10% despite beating on revenues, as heightened. Meta expects expenses to significantly increase in 2026. Microsoft beat on earnings with Azure revenue +40% but stock was -3% post earnings. On Thursday, stocks were lower driven by Meta and MSFT. After the close on Thursday, Amazon beat and the stock was +11% on strong cloud growth (+20%) and Apple beat and provided a strong forecast on iPhone 17 demand. Stocks rallied on Friday thanks to the stronger earnings on Thursday post-close. The Nasdaq outperformed, while the Russell was actually down on the day. Despite the recent volatility, the markets were positive on the week and the month.

  

• As the internet boomed, AOL was at the center of it. The stock went from $11.5/share for a market cap of $62mm at the IPO in 1992, to a peak market cap of $222 billion in December 1999. AOL was sold to Time Warner for $100bn in a disastrous deal for Time Warner. In 2015, Yahoo bought AOL for $4.4bn. Apollo bought Yahoo and AOL for approximately $5bn in 2018. According to this WSJ article, AOL was sold to Bending Spoons for approximately $1.5bn. Market leaders who do not adapt and change get destroyed.

  

  

• Interesting Fortune article about the “Great Wealth Transfer,” and how UBS believes it will play out. If you’re eyeing the $80 trillion promise of the Great Wealth Transfer and wondering what it may do for your personal finances, you’re not the only one. Governments are asking themselves the same, according to UBS.

  Those funds, UBS says, could be used to balance the books for countries with high levels of unsustainable national debt. Studies have found that over the next 20 to 30 years as much as $124 trillion will be passed down from older generations to their younger counterparts. The baby boomers—people born between 1946 and 1964—are the wealthiest generation in history. As these individuals begin passing on, sums will go immediately to their Gen X, millennial, and Gen Z successors, and some cash will go to spouses. But UBS chief economist Paul Donovan believes governments will want to add their names to the list of recipients. “The change in wealth comes at a time when many governments around the world have high debt and deficits. It seems unrealistic to suppose that governments will just sit idly by as this wealth moves around. We would expect governments to attempt to mobilize that wealth to help fund their debt, but in doing so that denies private sector investment access to some of those funds.” Given massive deficits, mounting debt levels, aging populations, crashing birth rates, runaway health care costs, and fiscally irresponsible governments, I agree that the money will be taxed in some way shape or form.

• Bloomberg article suggests there will not be a massive millionaire exodus if Mamdani wins. I see the migration to the suburbs, not to Florida, given work from home is dead in many corporations today. I spoke with a large Greenwich R/E agent who told me the inquiry rate since Mamdani’s rise has been substantial and his primary win pushed contracts directionally 50% higher. Also, there was an increase in the $15mm+ contracts in Greenwich post-Mamdani’s rise. For the wealthy, the biggest financial gain from leaving New York shows up in their tax returns. City and state levies can total 13.5% on incomes above $1 million and reach 14.8% for those earning $25 million or more. Mamdani would like to boost the cost of being a rich New Yorker to almost 17%, by adding two points to the city’s 3.9% top rate. The city’s wealthiest 1% earn roughly 40% of its dollars, a share that fluctuates based on financial and market conditions. That’s about twice the income inequality in the US as a whole and also higher than any other country in the world. The 3rd chart shows Michelin Star restaurants. Of note, before June 2022, Florida had zero stars. It has come a long way with almost all of them in Miami. The influx of wealthy people brought far better restaurants to town.

  

  

  

• Berkshire’s operating profit generated from the conglomerate’s wholly owned businesses including insurance and railroads jumped 34% year over year to $13.485 billion in the third quarter. The gains were driven by a more than 200% surge in insurance underwriting income, which rose to $2.37 billion. Buffett once again refrained from repurchasing shares despite a significant pullback in the stock (-10% from May highs). Without any buybacks, Berkshire’s cash hoard swelled to a record $381.6 billion, surpassing the previous high of $347.7 billion set in the first quarter of this year. Two months from now, Warren Buffett will no longer be Berkshire’s CEO, and investors appear to be getting increasingly nervous about the year-end transition. I wrote a piece about Buffett, and my favorite quotes and life lessons when he announced he was handing over the CEO role.

  

  

• Detroit’s defensive end, Aidan Hutchinson just signed a massive contract extension. The 25 year old signed a 4-year $180mm deal with $141mm guaranteed. Hutchinson has registered 34.5 sacks in 46 games overall, helping them claim their first play-off win in 32 years en route to the NFC Championship game at the end of the 2023 season, which they lost 34-31 to the San Francisco 49ers. Don’t get me wrong, this kid is a complete stud. However, the money in pro sports is completely out of control. Arguably the best defensive end of all time was Reggie White. He played from 1985-2000. He had 13 Pro Bowls, two-time Defensive Player of the Year, 198 career sacks (2nd all time), Hall of Fame and won a Super Bowl. His career earnings were $32.4mm. JJ Watt is a more recent great player who recently retired. In his 12-year career, he earned $129.7mm. See below for Hutchinson’s contract.

  

• I was intrigued by this Food & Wine article on the average Big Mac Prices in each state. A new report from CashNetUSA reveals that the average cost of a Big Mac across the United States now ranges between $4.67 and $6.72. The numbers reflect a significant trend: the price of a Big Mac has risen by approximately 141% over the past five years, according to Newsweek. The general inflation rate during that period is approximately 25%. A 2024 LendingTree report found that 78% of Americans now view fast food as a luxury. The highest price is in Seattle at $7.06, and the lowest is $4.36 in Austin. As an aside, I was on a road trip last week from Wake Forest to Palmetto Bluff, SC and was starving. I pulled over and ate at Jersey Mike’s for the 1st time in my life. I ordered a turkey sub (not good). I thought it would be $12, as I was in South Carolina. I was wrong. It was $21.19, including a $1.77 tip. Are you kidding me? Nothing special or extra. No chips, water or cookie.

  

Middle East

• 2 Years After Oct. 7, Majority Palestinians Say Hamas Was Right to Attack — 86% Deny Civilian Atrocities

• Qatari Prime Minister Says Hamas Violated Ceasefire with Attack on Israeli Soldiers

• IDF, Mossad prepping for attacks from Iranian-backed militias

• Israel says remains of three people handed over by Hamas do not match any deceased hostages

• Ben & Jerry’s co-founder to launch own Palestine-themed ice cream after Unilever vetoed idea

• Prominent university chancellor says anti-Israel campus protests ‘were encouraged from Iran’

• NYC antisemitic attack marks dark start for Mayor Mamdani

  • Yet another disgusting attack on Jews in NYC.

Politics

I thought this was an interesting and concerning chart. However, with the rise of Mamdani, not surprising.

• The government shutdown is barreling toward a terrible record. These financial pain points could end it.

• FAA warns of ‘surge’ in air traffic controllers calling out of work

  • “Currently, half of our Core 30 facilities are experiencing staffing shortages, and nearly 80 percent of air traffic controllers are absent at New York–area facilities,” the FAA said.

  • America in chaos as ‘perfect storm’ grounds flights and JD Vance admits he fears ‘disaster’

    • Major US airport near closure amid government shutdown — and it’s worrying news for Disney fans

• Millions face ‘huge sticker shock’ when ACA open enrollment starts Nov. 1

  • I checked into ACA insurance last month, and the prices were ridiculous for marginal coverage. The Article suggests with government shutdown and no subsidies, prices are higher. 22mm of 24mm receive enhanced tax credits.

• U.S. poised to strike military targets in Venezuela in escalation against Maduro

• ICE and CBP Agents Are Scanning Peoples’ Faces on the Street To Verify Citizenship

• ICE Arrests Over 145 Illegal Alien Truck Drivers on Indiana Highways

• DHS warns of ‘unprecedented violence’ as death threats against ICE officers soar 8,000%

• Judges say Trump administration must continue paying SNAP food stamp benefits during shutdown

• Walmart, NYC-area grocery stores threatened with mass looting after SNAP benefits expire

• ‘Get out there and ravish!’ Woman ‘out of food stamps’ shows off stolen goods, urges others to steal at will and ‘infiltrate’ churches for cash

• Major phone carriers reveal Jack Smith’s subpoenas for Republican senators’ records

  • Verizon complied with subpoenas while AT&T refused to turn over records for Arctic Frost investigation

• Trump orders Pentagon to ‘immediately’ restart nuclear weapons testing for first time in 33 years to compete with Russia, China

• The DEA said it arrested 171 ‘high ranking’ Sinaloa Cartel members. A Spotlight investigation found that’s not true.

• Trump’s Net Approval Rating among Americans under 30 is now at -45%

  

• Conservative mom sued for calling DEI teacher ‘woke’ celebrates as defamation case tossed

  • Wisconsin appeals court rules terms like ‘woke’ and ‘White savior’ are protected opinion, not defamation

• VP JD Vance dresses up as his own viral meme for Halloween, social media post tops 15 million views

  • Quite funny.

• Ex-Biden spokesman Ian Sams –who asserted he saw ‘sharp’ prez frequently — admits to seeing him twice in 2 years

  • The cover up was legendary by the administration, family, and press. Sams played strong on Biden’s mental acuity without any real knowledge of the situation.

• Meet the Senate aide with a $44,000 taxpayer-funded commute

  • Sen. Roger Marshall’s chief of staff, Brent Robertson, has taken at least 26 trips to Washington from his home in central Virginia.

• Trump Gathers MAGA Pals for Tone-Deaf ‘Gatsby’ Theme Party

  • Just don’t believe it was in good taste to throw this party on Friday night in light of the government shutdown and what many Americans and Federal employees are going through as a result.

• Kamala Harris shocks Jon Stewart by insisting Biden was ‘fully competent’ to serve another term

• ‘The View’ Sets Marjorie Taylor Greene as Guest After Co-Hosts Call for More Republicans on the Show

• Trio of polls show Zohran Mamdani with varying leads in home stretch of NYC mayoral race

  • Atlas suggests Cuomo is closing in.

    

• Billionaires are spending big to stop Zohran Mamdani’s NYC mayoral bid

• Iran rebuilding ballistic missile manufacturing capabilities with China’s support

• Putin tests ‘unstoppable’ underwater weapon that ‘can cause radioactive tsunamis’

• Pakistan threatens to ‘obliterate’ Taliban after peace talks fall apart

• Welfare Use by Immigrants and the U.S.-Born

  • Data below from 2022. Incredible.

• Amazing chart, Venezuela used to be wealthier than Poland. Poland introduced capitalism & free market principles, Venezuela followed socialism

  

Other Headlines

• Here are the five key takeaways from the Fed meeting and Powell news conference

• The 2% Target Has Been Abandoned

• DoubleLine’s Gundlach cuts gold exposure to 10%, urges investors to rebalance after ‘nosebleed’ rally

• Meta, Microsoft Test Investors With 89% AI-Fueled Spending Surge

  • Three bellwethers from different corners of the technology world – Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Microsoft Corp. — together racked up some $78 billion in capital expenditures last quarter. That’s up 89% from a year earlier.

• Big Tech Is Spending More Than Ever on AI and It’s Still Not Enough

  

  

• Amazon raises spending forecast to $125 billion as third-quarter results top estimates

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Delivers Stark Message In Washington — US Can’t Win AI Battle By Shutting Out China’s Developers: ‘It Hurts Us More’

  • I was surprised by this view.

• Samsung building facility with 50,000 Nvidia GPUs to automate chip manufacturing

• The weekly data for bankruptcy filings shows a clear downtrend in recent months

  

• Chipotle stock craters as Wall Street grows concerned after company cuts forecast (Stock-17%)

• Eli Lilly beats estimates, hikes guidance as Zepbound and Mounjaro sales soar

• Comcast beats earnings estimates despite more broadband subscriber losses

• Starbucks reports same-store sales growth for the first time in nearly two years

• Coffee delivery is now a $1 billion business for Starbucks

• Carvana’s third-quarter results rise on used vehicle demand

• Who’s In, Out and on the Rise at Bari Weiss’ CBS News

  • The Free Press cofounder is reportedly trying to lure some big names in TV news, as more changes are expected in the CBS newsroom. Big names from Fox being considered according to the article.

• 3 jobs AI will replace soon, according to the creator of ChatGPT

• Amazon exec explains huge layoff now slamming California

  • Layoffs are hitting Palo Alto, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara, Santa Monica, Irvine, Culver City and San Diego

• Grieving family uses AI chatbot to cut hospital bill from $195,000 to $33,000 — Claude highlighted duplicative charges, improper coding, and other violations

  • I am convinced there are many ways we can all gain efficiency through AI.

• Feds crack down on Washington Square Park’s brazen drug market with 19 arrests

  • My kids grew up in Washington Square Park which is now disgusting.

• Thieves steal more than 1,000 items from Oakland museum in ‘brazen’ heist

• Wait. Consequences for crime leads to lower crime? What an amazing concept. Below is for San Francisco after the voters dumped soft-on-crime leadership.

• FBI arrests 14 Mississippi law enforcement officers for roles in alleged drug trafficking conspiracy

• FBI thwarts potential Halloween weekend terror attack in Michigan

• UK police say 10 people in hospital after train stabbing attack, 9 with life-threatening injuries

• Caribbean islands reel from Hurricane Melissa’s devastating impact as storm heads north

• Harvard Medical School rocked by intentional explosion, two spotted fleeing detonation

• Disgraced Prince Andrew to be stripped of ‘prince’ title — and forced to leave royal home after Epstein scandal

  • What took so long?

• Bougie NYC cinema just hit a wild new price high — $200 per person for dinner and a movie

  • Great idea. Looks beautiful. Price seems steep to me unless it is Michelin Star quality.

• This Tibetan Mastiff has sold for over $1mm. What is wrong with people?

• Dodgers win epic World Series Game 7 vs. Blue Jays to repeat as champions

  • Crazy game 7 and wild series.

• Ancient Assyrian inscription unearthed in Jerusalem describes real events behind Bible story

• Possible alien spacecraft 3I/ATLAS makes unusual shift while hurtling towards the Sun

Health

• Anti-aging supplement could slow disease and keep you younger, with some cautions

  • Boosting NAD+ levels could improve cognitive health and boost longevity.

• Scientists are racing to grow human teeth in the lab

• Doing this after age 70 can slash your dementia risk by 39%

• 5 ‘good for you’ foods that aren’t as healthy as you think — including a few ‘weight loss’ faves

• New daily menopause pill that stops hot flashes without hormones will be available next month

• I run a ‘beauty longevity program’ — the exact peptide stack I use to live longer and boost my immunity

  • Peptides are a hot topic and my readers have had mixed results. Some swear by them and others felt they were a waste of money.

Tariffs

• Tariffs are expected to start showing up more in consumer prices as holiday shopping season starts

  • I have warned about this, which is why I was hesitant about too many rate cuts.

• Rare earth stocks rally as China delays export controls after Trump-Xi meeting

Real Estate

• This Post article is about a PH on Perry Street asking $85mm. The forthcoming penthouse pad sits atop 125 Perry St., Mansion Global reported. And if it sells for that sum, it could break the record for the most expensive ever sold in downtown Manhattan. The squat, brick building on a prime corner of the West Village is in the midst of a bold transformation: Goodbye Greenwich Village Garage, hello boutique condominium. The hip enclave has been traditionally sought out by the city’s moneyed set for its coveted supply of townhomes, but brokers and developers say that’s all changing. The glass-wrapped unit, officially named Penthouse East, spans 7,700 interior square feet, with six bedrooms and 10 bathrooms. It boasts three large terrace spaces across 2,800 square feet, including the building’s rooftop.

• Bill Gates has made headlines with his substantial investments in U.S. farmland, claiming ownership of 1 out of every 4,000 acres across the country. This significant stake in agricultural land has sparked widespread curiosity about his motivations and the implications of such a large-scale acquisition. Gates’ investments have been the subject of extensive reporting, with various sources exploring the reasons behind his interest in farmland and the potential impacts on the agricultural sector.

• In January, U.S. Census data showed that Americans were flocking to the Sun Belt states and according to a new report from moveBuddha that trend is still going strong. The relocation tech company used proprietary data collected from 2020 through October 1, 2025, to analyze move trends. moveBuddha calculated the rates using an in-to-out ratio equation, based on the number of queries to move in divided by the number of queries to move out, using the company’s moving cost calculator. Maybe there are two states on this list that I could ever live in.

  

• The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 6.33% on Thursday.

  Markets had already priced in a cut from the Federal Reserve, but they weren’t expecting the Fed chairman’s commentary. The recent drop in rates had caused a run on refinances, with those applications up 111% last week year over year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Interestingly, more than 40% of homeowners don’t have mortgages, and that number is growing.

• Developer Related Companies has agreed to build a more than $7 billion data-center campus on farmland outside Detroit, one of the largest deals yet for this burgeoning real estate class that powers AI. Related’s 250-acre campus in Saline Township, Mich., is the fourth new site announced as part of a $300-billion contract signed between Oracle ORCL and OpenAI, which the ChatGPT maker says is part of its larger Stargate project designed to build trillions of dollars worth of new computing capacity.

© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #832 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.