Watch Out Superman
7-15-26
Opening Comments
My last note was about how my friend tried to kill me on multiple occasions and most notably due to an awful dinner recommendation. The most opened links were Charlie Kirk’s explanation of Israel/Palestine and the #1 parenting rule.
I thought I was losing my mind. My JPM app would not open with my face ID. It had worked fine for years. I called my bankers to ask what to do, and they connected me to tech support. She had me delete the app and re-install it. No joy. She then said, “Do you have an old screen protector?” I responded, “Yes, it is pretty banged up.” I took it off and my face ID worked again. Yes, it was embarrassing. Who would have thought that a screen protector that looks as though it has been through a war would impact facial recognition? My tech skills are legendarily bad.
Markets
GS on AI Induced Inflation in the US
Pawn Shops in Vegas Outline “K-Shaped” Economy
Best and Worst States from Affordability
Re-escalation with Iran
Disturbing Video of Palestinian Students Jew Hate
Norway Data on Immigrants
ROAD to Housing Act
NYC Pied-à-terre tax Impact
220 CPS in Manhattan is Weaker
Pictures of the Day-Marea NYC
I have written about Marea frequently. It is one of my favorite Mid-town restaurants. I went for lunch a couple weeks ago and sat at the stunningly beautiful bar. The food has never disappointed, and the service is always sound. The only issue is that the price does not come cheap. I think my appetizer was $58 and the pasta was $54.
Food 8.9
Service-9.2
Ambiance-9.2
Cost-FULLY Priced
Watch Out Superman
On Wednesday, June 4th, I woke up at 4 am when my phone vibrated due to a text. Being in Utah, two hours behind the East Coast,, leads to some calls and texts inopportune times. I worked on the newsletter report as I was publishing later that day. At 7:30 am, I went to the gym and lifted weights.
I decided to go on a hike, and let me tell you being at elevation makes it challenging. I did a 1:45 minute hike at the Canyons. It was not an advanced trail, but walking up inclines at over 7,500 feet had me out of breath in a hurry. Also, I had only been in Utah a couple days and was not acclimated to the elevation. I did not want to overdo it and turned around and almost killed myself on the rocks on the way down the steeper inclines. I made it back to the base and walked home.
I met a reader at 3 pm who worked at JPM when I was there. He is a great guy and a local in Park City. From there, I went food shopping and bought some steak. I cooked it up and was watching the Knicks/Spurs when I received a text about a game of padel. It was not my wisest decision. I just crushed a 1lb Snake River Farms Wagyu Ribeye and a pound of cannellini bean puree with garlic, thyme, and rosemary. I also had a half bottle of cabernet. What could possibly go wrong playing padel after a long day and a huge meal?
The night was stunning and we played outside at a house in Park City just 10 minutes from my townhouse. It was not a serious game thankfully as it would have ended badly for me given I was so full. I had a blast, but it was a long day, and I did not get back home until 9:40 pm. I did nearly 16,000 steps and let me be clear, at elevation, that seems like quite a bit more than at sea level.
On July 3rd I outdid myself with over 20,000 steps. I worked out in the morning, did a 5.3 mile hike up to 9,200 feet and then played 4 sets of padel in Salt Lake City with twenty somethings that played college tennis. This padel facility has no AC, and I quickly realized I had overdone it. I could not consume enough water to keep me hydrated, while the young punks had no problem with the hot conditions. I have multiple days in Utah with 17,000-20,000 steps, while doing multiple activities each day.
My fitness level has me feeling good given my constant exercise, and the mountains in Utah are a great place to get into insane shape. The hike that took me 1.5 hours on my 3rd day in Utah, only took me 54 minutes on Sunday. I also significantly reduced my complex carbohydrate intake and am down 4lbs and 1” in my waist in six weeks. Now factor in the peptide regimen and when I get back to Florida at sea level, I am going to feel like Superman.
Quick Bites
Over the weekend, hostilities picked back up in the Middle East and sent oil +3.5%, the 10-year yield +2bps, but stocks were only down slightly on Sunday night. Chip stocks underperformed with the iShares Semiconductor ETF -5% on Monday and SK Hynix -9%. On Monday, the Nasdaq underperformed at -1.5%. Oil finished Monday at +9.1% to close at $78/barrel, while the 10-year Treasury closed +5bps to 4.62%. Remember, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is about 50% of the levels from 2020. The move in oil as well as Fed Governor Chris Waller’s inflation comments pushed yields higher. On Tuesday, stocks rose (Nasdaq outperformed at +.9%) after the consumer price index data came out at +3.5%, lower than expected driven by oil from last month. The CPI data pushed the 10-year yield -2bps to 4.59%. Also, chip stocks rebounded. Although lower CPI is a positive development, the data is massively flawed. For example, according to the US Government, the cost of health insurance is -31% over the past 4 years, while in reality, mine is +30% or more. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs all reported earnings Tuesday that beat expectations. Oil rallied another 2% to $80 but was off the highs after Trump abandoned the idiotic 20% Hormuz fee. Producer Prices declined .3% on Wednesday, given gas prices. This is the 2nd positive inflation reading of the week and helped push Treasury yields slightly lower and stocks +.5%. With the good inflation news, stocks were slightly higher on the day, while the 10-year Treasury yield was -3bps to 4.56%. Wednesday, SpaceX dropped below the IPO price for the 1st time. I have been critical of the valuations today, despite believing in the company over the next 10 years.
I have been clear with my view that oil was too low, and we are starting to see it rise more aggressively in recent days. The charts below are telling. With respect to oil, diesel inventory is now lower than in 2008 when oil was $147 and the profit margin for refining diesel is at $77, while a barrel of oil was $72 on Friday. Diesel crack spreads were +9% on Monday and higher spreads=tighter diesel markets. Diesel moves goods across America, and this should be concerning from an inflation perspective. As a reminder, crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the refined products extracted from it. The 25-year average spread is less than $15/barrel for perspective. Russia’s crude output fell 834k barrels/day below its OPEC+ quota. Russia turned from a net exporter of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline to becoming an importer. As I have been saying, Iran war, Hormuz closing, crack spreads exploding, Russia issues, China buying, Strategic Petroleum Reserves down sharply, refining capacity offline in the Middle East, Russia and US gives us a recipe for higher oil. The last chart outlines Hormuz flows which have crashed again.
Diesel crack spread exploding in recent weeks. Bullish for oil, 
Strategic Petroleum Reserve down sharply 
The chart suggests there is not enough oil in the system, so the market is forcing storage to be consumed. The chart is the 1st month of crude vs the 2nd month of crude. 
This Market Insider article is about how Goldman Sachs warned the US will bear the brunt of global AI-induced inflation. The Wall Street giant crunched the numbers on how the boom in artificial intelligence could stoke higher consumer prices around the world, thanks to supply constraints that have pushed up the prices for key components, like memory chips and semiconductors. The US will likely see the worst inflationary impact, Megan Peters, an economist at the bank, wrote. AI is lifting core personal consumption expenditures inflation — the Fed's preferred inflation measure — by around 20 basis points a year in the US, per Goldman's estimate. By the end of the year, that inflationary pressure is expected to more than double, with the boost to core PCE rising by 50 basis points. The free article goes into more details on specific prices for memory, software, and electricity. On a related note, Chamath Palihapitiya outlined that his AI token costs are doubling every 45 days with productivity only gaining 5%. I am reading more about companies that can no longer justify the token expense relative to the productivity gains. Seems to me, as companies spend more time understanding the cost-benefit analysis of these tokens, there will be a pull-back.
Great WSJ article about pawn shops in Vegas and the example of the “K-shaped” economy. At a Max Pawn Luxury shop near the Las Vegas Strip, a glass case full of preowned Hermès Birkin bags catches the eye of a Texan looking to buy luxury goods. Across town at an Ezpawn store near the airport, local Nevadans need a $200 pawn loan to pay their bills. Higher household costs are driving demand for quick cash at Ezcorp’s stores, which also are seeing affluent customers on the hunt for secondhand luxury goods. Pawnshop operators like Ezcorp, which owns both the Max Pawn Luxury and Ezpawn chains, have long served as a bellwether for the cash-strapped consumer. But more recently, Ezcorp’s business reflects what economists call the K-shaped economy, a picture of the American consumer on two different tracks as higher prices for everything from groceries to gas widen the economic divide.
CNBC put out the 10 most expensive states where inflation is punishing residents and the 10 most affordable states. I included the top five below for both categories. Not surprisingly, California is the least affordable state. I was surprised to see Florida near the top of the expensive list. Sadly, I could never live in the most reasonable states. On a related note, this CNBC story “‘Funflation’ hits home: Why staying in isn’t the cost-saver it used to be,” outlines why staying home is not so cheap anymore (last two charts).
Middle East
Iran targets US navy supplies in most extensive wave of airstrikes
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have destroyed several key US facilities across the Gulf, including a refueling station for American aircraft carriers at the Port of Duqm, Oman. Trump, what are the consequences for Iran constantly violating the ceasefire and attacking American interests and allies? Bring out the Mother of All Bombs and reestablish US dominance. It seems the US had a more aggressive round of strikes over the weekend with respect to Iran’s military installments. It does not seem that many IRGC members were killed. As I continue to believe, we are not close to a deal and Trump needs to go all out now. The Iranians are not to be trusted. Hormuz traffic stopped again due to the renewed bombing. Houthis fired at Saudi Arabia after attack on Yemeni airport. The US struck Iran Monday night for the 3rd day in a row. The 5-hour mission was meant to target coastal defense systems and drone sites used to attack commercial ships. On Wednesday, Iran struck a Kuwaiti Naval vessel and is an escalation because it is the first time Iran has directly stuck the official military of an Arab country. On Wednesday, the US ramped up attacks on Iran. This just seems to be deteriorating with no end in sight. After the US attacks this week, Iran threatened to shut off more regional energy exports. The rhetoric out of Iran is heating up.
Oil prices off highs after Trump abandons 20% protection fee on Strait of Hormuz traffic
It was a moronic idea but Trump abandoned it before I was able to publish my thoughts.
Top ex-Iranian commander boasts country can assassinate Trump inside White House: ‘We are capable’
When you teach little kids that Jews are terrorists and then these kids grow up and want to kill Jews, we should not be surprised. The video is little kids talking of killing Jews.
Politics
I found this data on Norway’s foreign population to be interesting and concerning. Using 2024 data; Norway has a foreign population of 1,152,000~ people or (20.8% of their population). The majority of these people are from Europe, but around 400,000~ are from the Middle East and Africa. 72% of all state social welfare/assistance goes towards immigrants, 86% of which was paid to immigrants from Asia (Middle East, Pakistan, India) and Africa, 6% to European immigrants. Immigrants represented 90% of the annual cases of tuberculosis, 60% of the annual HIV cases and 96% of the annual Hepatitis B cases. Immigrants make up 30% of all annual imprisonments.
Immigrants make up 47% of all cases of perpetrators have murdered their partner.
Immigrants made up 47% of cases involving domestic violence to children. The cost of each immigrant to the Norwegian economy by what they take vs what they contribute: Somalian: $-927,351 USD each (43,200 Somalis in Norway), Indian: $-164,862 USD each (19,200 Indians in Norway), Pakistani: $-525,555 USD each (38,600 Pakistanis in Norway). Nothing to see here folks. I believe the data speaks for itself.
Warsh pledges Fed policy ‘regime change’ to rid inflation ‘tax’ on American people
Warsh is impressive and cited bad Fed policy that led to inflation. Too many idiot politicians ask politically motivated questions during these Congressional sessions. It is embarrassing. You have the Fed Chairman in front of you. Take the time to ask a thoughtful question and not get a soundbite for your social media platform. I am begging for term limits. I feel very good about Warsh at the helm. I was no fan of Powell or Yellen and feel their policies and decisions were bad for America.
Of the 44 politicians, 3 were Democrats. Nothing to see here folks.
Nick Shirley uncovers an adult day care in Flushing, Queens with 7,000 phantom members.
Hand it to Shirley. He is a great investigative reporter uncovering fraud.
Musk claims hundreds of billions of fraud. Rather than raise taxes, go after fraud, waste ,and abuse in our system.
Sen. Lindsey Graham’s preliminary cause of death revealed after GOP leader, 71, found in DC home
Ruptured aorta brought on by chronic heart disease.
South Carolina governor taps Lindsey Graham’s sister to serve as interim senator
Immigration agent shot Biddeford man as he fled ‘in the direction of the officer,’ AG says
McConnell says after weeks of speculation that hospitalization was due to a fall
Let’s be real. He is incompetent and frail. He has “frozen” numerous times in recent years, fallen constantly, and is not adding value. The same was true of Diane Feinstein. These clowns refuse to leave office. It is embarrassing.
Trump-backed Daylight Saving Time bill clears key House hurdle
Trump supports the effort, which cleared House Rules Committee 6-4 and would let states lock in year-round Daylight Saving Time. I want this to pass.
After coming forward with being sexually harassed in the locker room by a biological male, her teachers turned on her. "My homeroom teacher, who I’d had for two years, told me that she sees me as less of a person," Cross said. Cross wore a t-shirt that said, “Save Women’s Sports.” This is what America has become. If you are a woman who complains about being harassed by a biological male while in the girl’s locker room, you are a disappointment.
NY sees dramatic exodus of millionaires — causing nearly $11B loss in tax revenue
I continue to harp on my view that the wealthy have options. Why live in NYC or CA with awful policies, a high cost of living, and sky-high taxes? Move to Florida. The wealthy are not vilified there. “Had New York maintained its share of the nation’s millionaires over the past decade, personal income tax collections would have been substantially higher – roughly $10.7 billion more in tax year 2022.”
NYC criminal squatter accused of violently attacking condo residents, slinging drugs in hallway
Why does a squatter have any rights? They broke the law and stole a home. They should be arrested. The idiotic policies that give a squatter any rights are absolutely insane. In this case, the squatter is violent, selling drugs, and attacking residents. One allegation has the squatter chasing a resident around the building with a knife. Let’s not forget the squatter throat-punched a resident. Let’s just say, I side with Florida squatter rights. They go to jail.
A grotesque homeless encampment continues to expand on Manhattan’s West Side and now covers 12 city blocks with theft, drugs and prostitution flourishing in broad daylight. Dozens of tents and makeshift shelters now extend from 34th Street to 46th Street along 11th Avenue. NYC spends almost $5bn/year on homeless. Yet another failed policy. Now the vagrants wired the encampment with electricity. What could possibly go wrong? Better raise taxes on the rich to pay for the politician’s incompetence. No sarcasm here!
Mamdani stonewalls audit of nearly $13B in NYC education contracts
Zendaya is a Progressive and pro environmental activist. The hypocrisy is offensive. It was similar to Leo DiCaprio flying privately 8,000 miles to pick up a climate change award. His foundation pledged $15mm to help protect the environment. You cannot make this stuff up. Remember, Leo drives a Prius to make a statement, then flies privately. Makes complete sense to me.
Kyiv bombs 15 more Russian ships on key trade route
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Kyiv bombs 15 more Russian ships on key trade
I can’t believe this war has gone on for almost 4.5 years. Russia has almost 1.5mm casualties including almost 500k deaths. The Russian economy is in serious trouble.
Other Headlines
The deficits we run are unsustainable and not enough is being done to reduce spending. The national debt is +$3.2 trillion over the past year. Nothing to see here folks.
US Cost for Gas Power at 17-Year High and Climbing, Lazard Says
Jevons Paradox: More Evidence of a Positive Employment Effect of AI Adoption
A new study from Ramp, linking observed AI spending to workforce records across 21,559 US firms, finds that companies adopting AI grow their headcount 10% over the two years following adoption. I am not convinced this trend lasts.
IBM stock craters 25%, the worst day on record, after company issues second-quarter earnings warning
Morgan Stanley posts record quarterly revenue and profit as equities trading surges 69%
IBM dropped 3% and Salesforce dropped 4% on the news.
SK Hynix South Korean shares jump 11% as Asia tech stocks rally
Interesting charts on data centers and electricity pricing
The wealth of the richest Americans has reached a peak relative to national income
I am a capitalist and want people who create, invent, discover, and change the world to be compensated for their work. However, the chasm between the have and have nots is growing wider, and that leads to serious societal challenges.
The Selfie Generation Is the Baby Boomers’ Mistake
We meant well when we coddled our children, but they ended up embracing the politics of envy. This is a great WSJ Opinion piece about where the younger generation went amiss with respect to embracing socialism.
Wealthy Americans choose one grocery store chain over rivals, survey finds
Costco emerged as the top grocery choice among higher-income Americans in a new survey
Upper middle class and affluent married households are leaving New York
“Net outmigration was highest for married households with incomes between $100,000 and $500,000 – on a net basis, almost 8,200 such filers moved out of New York in 2024, 0.7% of resident taxpayers in that category. The highest out-migration rates are for households making $500,000 or more – 1% of these taxpayers left the state in 2024.” What are the tax revenue implications for the continued loss of higher incomes?
Exclusive / Paramount weighs leaving California over Warner Bros. rift
Ellison’s confidantes have pushed him to consider moving its corporate headquarters and reallocating much of its $30 billion in planned spending outside the state if California Attorney General Rob Bonta were to sue to stop the merger.
Trump proposes 20% toll on cargo through Strait of Hormuz; restarts Iran blockade. Good thoughts in this link.
CBS news anchor nearly loses life savings in LA scam
The scumbags tried to scam me too. Never believe someone calling you for fraud. Call back the bank or credit card company.
Ex-Pentagon UFO honcho claims photos show monolith-like structures on moon
Massive bull bison tosses Yellowstone tourist into the air like a ragdoll in shocking attack
MUST watch. Hello, Social Darwinism. Do not try to get pictures of wild animals. It literally threw him like a rag doll.
Health
‘Spermageddon’: is the world facing a male reproductive crisis?
Over the past 50 years, male testosterone levels have halved. Higher obesity and diabetes rates are partially to blame according to the article. Excess body fat accelerates the conversion of testosterone to estrogen and also disrupts the brain’s hormone signaling. Estimates vary, but in one study every one-point increase in BMI was associated with a 2% decrease in testosterone, which might be expected to lower sperm production. The article points out scientists who disagree with the findings as well. The charts were created by Claude.
The outbreak is produce related. Wash them well!
Humanoid robots pull off first-ever gallbladder surgeries in major step toward human trails
A tiny GLP-1 implant is the latest bet to help patients maintain their weight loss
Looksmaxxer in naked rampage before death ‘believed in injecting gold for superpowers’
Connor Murphy, 32, was found dead in a lake in Thailand after he allegedly trashed his luxury rental home and then jumped into the water- his friends claim he believed in injecting gold for powers. I am all for being healthy and looking your best, but these clowns need help.
Real Estate
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which aims to increase the housing supply and address affordability, was passed by Congress on June 23 and automatically became law on Saturday after President Donald Trump declined to sign or veto it. The legislation is aimed at encouraging home construction, expanding access to financing and restricting purchases by large institutional investors. The median price of an existing home in the U.S. was $440,600 in June, 49.2% higher than in June 2020. A key provision would prohibit large institutional investors that own at least 350 single-family homes from purchasing additional single-family homes, subject to several exceptions.
NYC luxury R/E had been holding up quite well. It seems things are taking a turn for the worse, with the constant vilification of wealth and the pied-à-terre tax. Only one eight-figure-plus home found a buyer between July 6 and July 12, even as 29 Manhattan homes priced at $4 million or more went into contract during the period. Normally, between three and five properties priced at $10 million and upwards enter contract per week. The broader luxury market was far more resilient. Nineteen condos, six co-ops, and four townhouses priced at $4 million or more entered contract during the week, with 20 of the 29 deals involving homes asking less than $6 million. It is only one week, so let’s not read too much into it yet, but there is NOTHING to get me to buy a 2nd home in NYC right now with the policies and vilification of wealth.
For many years, 220 Central Park South overlooking Central Park was the most expensive building in NYC on a per square foot basis. I have been to multiple apartments in the building and felt it had the nicest amenities of any building I had ever seen. I am a huge fan of the architect, Rafael Viñoly. However, I was a bit underwhelmed by the layouts of the apartments going for $25mm+. This NY Post article outlines some concerns around falling prices, growing inventory, and a $160mm renovation required due to cracks that could lead to “raining chunks of concrete.” Residents have also complained about the supertall’s swaying and groaning, leaks, power outages and elevator problems — as well as high-priced required monthly minimums in the building’s private restaurant. The article outlines numerous units for sale at steep discounts to prior pricing. Unit 84A, for example, closed for $21.3 million in 2016. When it sold again, in 2024, the closing price was $13.5 million. A half-floor unit on the 66th story just slashed $3.5 million off its asking price. The four-bedroom unit, which was asking $32.5 million in 2020, now asks $22.99 million. The views and amenities are amazing. I am just not a fan of most of the layouts I have seen first-hand. The galley kitchens killed me. A PH sold for over $12k/foot in 2020.
© 2026 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #906 ©Copyright 2026 Written by Eric Rosen.
