Bimini Blues

2-16-25

Opening Comments

My last note was about making a new friend the Rosen way. I received a huge amount of emails after the piece from readers who enjoyed story. The most opened links included the story of the ex-USAID chief’s net worth going from $6.7mm to $30mm on a $180k salary and the Tom Brady $740k Super Bowl watch. Not only is the watch incredibly ugly, but it was poor taste to wear such a piece to anchor the Super Bowl in my opinion. A close third was the article about a private jet operator on the one thing the wealthy value most.

Readers always enjoy Mike Cembalest’s Eye on the Market pieces and this week’s note is From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones. As usual there are amazing charts and information in the link.

I have written about my sponsor, Lang Insurance (866-964-4434). In the last week, more than a half dozen readers have signed up for their personal property and casualty coverage across the country. Not only is Kevin Lang incredibly knowledgeable on the insurance space, he is responsive and finds way to save you money. I saved $20k on my annual insurance bill switching to Lang and he has saved some readers over $80k/year while maintaining very high-quality coverage with the best insurers. He just quoted one reader for a wind policy at $45k annual savings. You should be calling him for an idea of what he can do for you.

• Pictures of the Day-Different Income Tax Regimes

• Bahama Blues

• Quick Bites

  • Markets

  • US Earnings

  • Rosen and Dalio on US Deficits

  • Healthcare Inflation

  • Delaware Under Siege on Business

  • Bottle Service Clubs

• Politics

  • DOGE

• Middle East

• Other Headlines

• Real Estate

  • Entry-Level Miami Homes Becoming Extinct

  • $15mm Fisher Island Mansion Sale

  • DC Housing Market In Chaos

Pictures of the Day-Different Income Tax Regimes

A few charts below of tax-efficient states from an income tax perspective and counties that are more tax efficient.

Bimini Blues

I fish quite a bit and as my loyal readers know, I catch a lot of fish. I have taken my boat to Bimini probably 20 times and gone on other boats as well. During the winter season (November through March), I tend to catch a lot of wahoo, the amazing delicacy the Hawaiians call ono. I have caught as many as 12 wahoos in two days on prior trips, but never less than a few. To make it across the 60-mile stretch of the Atlantic, you need relatively calm seas for a safe passage. It is ideal to fish around the full moon as the bite tends to be better. Add a falling tide to the right moon phase and you are generally guaranteed to catch wahoo. Well, not this time in what turned out to be the single worst fishing trip of my life.

I went over on Monday with my friend Dustin. He is an amazing young fisherman (28 years old), and a full-time captain of a 74’ Viking sport fishing boat. I have known him for 8 years and fish with him often. He is handy on a boat as well, something I surely am not. You need to go through customs which is a painful process before you fish. We started fishing around 9:45 am on Monday and got hit by a nice wahoo in the first five minutes. I did everything right and fought it hard for 10 minutes, but it became unhooked and was gone.

Despite the amazing conditions and using all the right lures and baits, it was shockingly quiet. We zig-zagged 30 miles south of Bimini in search of wahoo and got one more bite late in the day, which was a big one. Wahoo swim 60 mph and when they hit the lure, the reel screams as line is being taken by the strong fish. Again, the hook pulled. We were ZERO for two, that never happens when Dustin and I are fishing together. We caught some uninspiring fish including a blackfin tuna and a large cero mackerel, but not the target species. Something was also going on with my boat's battery that prevented us from using all my electronics; not an ideal situation.

We checked into the hotel and went to sleep at 8:30 pm after a long day. We woke up at 5:30 am Tuesday and fished hard for a few hours with limited success. The electronics started working again and we caught some yellow eye snapper and headed home. Yellow eye snapper are probably my favorite fish to eat because they are silky and packed with flavor. However, to add insult to injury, the gill plate on these fish are incredibly sharp and I gashed my thumb taking one off the hook. I could have used stitches but decided against it. The cut is under my thumbnail. Painful does not begin to describe it.

On the way back, we looked for debris which tends to attract fish. We found all kinds of logs and floating objects but still could not find fish. Dejected, we made it back to Boca and had to clean the boat for two hours. In the history of my fishing Bimini, I have never had that kind of trip before. It was a complete disaster. I guess that is why they call it fishing and not catching. My readers always hear about my amazing fishing excursions, but felt the need to share one that did not go as planned. I did make fresh cero mackerel ceviche and baked yellow eye snapper for dinner Tuesday, which was a saving grace, but not enough for me to suggest the trip was a success. I refused to be photographed with my fish as none were big enough to justify the photo op.

Trying to keep positive on the trip was the beautiful sunrise on Tuesday.

Quick Bites

• After the hot CPI data on Wednesday, wholesale prices rose more than expected (.4%) as reported on Thursday. Despite the inflationary data, markets rallied Thursday (1%) as Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, but won’t be in place before April. The three major averages ended the week in the green, as sentiment improved after investors got more certainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, while new inflation data wound up being more constructive than first thought. Traders also shrugged off data released Friday that reflected a 0.9% slump in retail sales for January, worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% decline. The S&P is now is basically at all time highs despite all the noise. Of note, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 5bps back to 4.48% after hitting 4.66% on Wednesday post CPI data.

  

• Good Bloomberg article about the strong US earnings season. US companies are putting up one of their best earnings seasons in three years on the back of robust economic growth. Still, concern about tariffs, still-high interest rates and lofty valuations have kept the S&P 500 stuck in neutral for the past few weeks. With companies accounting for three-quarters of the benchmark’s market value having reported, earnings per share are on track to jump 12.5% compared with an anticipated 7.3% before the season kicked off, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s well above an average 5.5% increase posted since the first quarter of 2022. Earnings have been stronger than I would have thought. Some companies suggested a pull-forward of business due to impending tariffs.

• I am an adamant deficit hawk and have likely written more on the topic of deficits and debt than 99.9% of writers in the world. I would like to see DOGE cut many hundreds of billions of waste AND see major entitlement reform. We need to raise retirement age, means test and increase the annual contribution. I do not see how deficits of 7% of GDP are sustainable during boom times (low unemployment, high stocks, high real estate prices). What happens during the next recession? Ray Dalio issued another warning and said the US faces a “debt debt spiral.” “It’s like if I was a doctor and I was speaking with you about your condition, I would say to you, this is now very, very serious. “What you need to do is cut your deficit from about 7.5% of GDP to 3% of gross domestic product, and you can do that. There are certain things that you can do that cut it in a certain way that’ll make it much healthier, so the real problem is a political problem.” “I want to alert people. I want to alert government officials. I want to help, you know, and so I feel like the doctor, and then I would say everybody, politically … if this doesn’t happen, and we have the equivalent of, you know, an economic heart attack, or a heart attack of the bond market, then you know who’s responsible, because it can happen.” Dalio stressed that governments are responsible, and that leaders should make a pledge to reduce the U.S. budget deficit from 7.5% to 3% of its GDP or resign. I am in full agreement with Dalio’s views here.

  

  

  

• I have been all over the inflation data and this chart was a concerning one. When it comes to health insurance, I am not convinced that many people in the country have spent more time and effort on the subject. Given that I am self-employed, getting quality insurance coverage in Florida is a disaster. I have spent hundreds of hours on this subject and can tell you premiums have become out of control, yet the US government inflation data suggests the cost of that coverage is -15% over the past five years. ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE. Not only are my premiums going through the roof, my deductibles are higher and more doctors refuse to accept insurance. My physical therapy is $500/hr in one place and $300/hr in another and both refuse insurance. Between medical, dental, vision, and medicine insurance and out-of-pocket expenses, my costs are over $100k/year. The 2nd chart is related in that it outlines inflation from the 1970s to today’s levels.

  

  

• I thought this was an interesting Fortune article, “Elon Musk and Bill Ackman are pulling out of Delaware. Now the state is scrambling to protect its $2 billion legal economy.” It’s long been a no-brainer for firms to incorporate in Delaware. No other state can compete with the decades of case law that provide precedent on nearly every business issue, as well as the expertise and efficiency of its specialized courts. That helps companies identify and manage risk, giving Delaware a massive edge when firms need to find a legal home. A growing chorus of executives and controlling stockholders, including Musk, have accused Delaware’s courts of becoming too friendly to shareholder plaintiffs. The resulting debate has rattled the state’s legal community, said Michael Houghton, a retired partner from Delaware firm Morris Nichols Arsht & Tunnell and former president of the state bar association, though he believes the issue has been overstated. Nonetheless, Adam Chodorow, a law professor at Arizona State University, says he thinks the charge led by Musk is the biggest threat to Delaware’s dominance that he’s witnessed over his more than 30-year career. I had always considered Delaware to be business friendly but some smart business leaders are changing direction and it could severely harm the state’s economy.

• In one of the more memorable exchanges with a young trader who worked for me, we argued about the cost of bottle service at NYC clubs. I was apoplectic about paying thousands of dollars for a bottle and the young man said to me, “but you get lemons, limes, orange juice and tonic for free.” I lost it on this poor kid for the audacity of suggesting these items were free after literally paying $2,000 for a bottle that does not cost $100 in the liquor store. Well, this article outlines that top bottle service servers make $400k and there is a boot camp that teaches them how to be their best. One server described the job as being a combo of “sales, entertainment, customer service, promotion, accounting and even therapy—all while maintaining an effortless, glamorous person.” One server told my friend she can make $6,000 or more on a good night.

Politics

DOGE is dominating the airwaves and the media storm is enormous. Many politicians are up in arms about DOGE running wild. I want to be crystal clear. The US Government is filled with fraud and waste of epic proportions. The $7.3 trillion budget has at least $1 trillion of waste in it. This is YOUR money. You should be irate at the waste and carelessness. You should be up in arms that USAID was giving millions to left-wing media outlets to bury stories while the CEO’s net worth increased by nearly $25mm over three years despite a $180k salary. The waste was uncovered after Trump issued an executive order to stop foreign payments and USAID refused to do so. You should be livid that billions of waste for global DEI-related causes was taking place each year. On Friday, DOGE announced it uncovered another $1.9bn of “misplaced” money at HUD. Now, could they be handling things a bit differently, yes. I feel Musk has too much leeway. However, look at what Musk did at Twitter. Fired 80% of the staff, cut costs, reduced unnecessary real estate, contractors, software, systems and saved BILLIONS. He is doing the same with DOGE. Don’t hate him for uncovering waste. Those politicians screaming the loudest probably have the most to hide. Last week’s All-In podcast was EYE OPENING on the DOGE topic. Listen for yourselves. Even life-long Democrats (Jason Calacanis and David Friedberg) are supportive of DOGE and what is being uncovered. Be thankful that people are ending federal waste and helping to get deficits under control. Be scared that you have been lied to by your government for decades. I am thankful that Trump and his team are exposing this fraud and want people to go to jail for it. Follow the money. However, to be fair, everything out of DOGE has not been accurate. The Musk story of $50mm in condoms for Gaza was proven to be false. I am fine with mistakes as long as they are quickly corrected and it leads to material savings for US taxpayers. Deficits of $2 trillion or more in perpetuity are not sustainable. I don’t want to pay for crap for all these other countries. Top five shocking DOGE revelations can be found here. Incredible!

• Elon Musk calls for the U.S. government to delete entire agencies: ‘Remove the roots of the weed’

• Eruption in 'BleachBit,' 'wipe hard drive,' 'offshore bank' searches in D.C. suggest Deep State panic mode

• HHS splurged more than $22B on grants for migrants — including cash for cars, home loans and startups

• Musk staffer 'mistakenly' given ability to edit Treasury Department payment system, legal filings say

• EPA head Lee Zeldin reveals no real oversight of shocking $20B that Biden admin funneled through Citibank: ‘Tip of the iceberg’

• Foreign Aid Agencies Awarded $27 Million to Groups Helping Leftist Protesters Avoid Jail

• 14 States Sue To Block DOGE From Slashing Waste

  • This is INCREDIBLE. Saving billions is a good thing regardless of who uncovers it.

• Musk Will Face Consequences for Meddling in German Politics

• Trump signs sweeping reciprocal tariff plan, says more coming

  • President Donald Trump on Thursday signed a presidential memorandum laying out his plan to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on foreign nations. “They charge us a tax or tariff and we charge them,” Trump said during a press event in Oval Office. The president said that under the plan, the U.S. will treat other countries’ non-tariff policies as unfair trade practices that warrant tariffs in response. Those include value-added taxes, or VATs, and other practices that the office of the U.S. trade representative deems to be unfair trade limitations. I am fully supportive of reciprocal tariffs. We have played on an uneven playing field against America. Time to play fair. Trump also threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS group if they “play games with the dollar.”

    • Markets are starting to view Trump as more of a ‘pushover’ on tariffs than a protectionist, UBS economist says

• Illegal border crossings hit record lows after Trump’s swift crackdown — and could be on track for levels not seen in 60 years

  • This is a huge positive. Having real borders again is important for national security. How many criminals and terrorists have come into the country in recent years?

• Homan, AOC clash over webinar to help immigrants 'evade' ICE raids

• Top federal prosecutor quits after DOJ moves to toss NYC Mayor Adams case

• RFK Jr confirmed to lead US Health and Human Services

• Elon Musk savaged as SpaceX gets new $40m defense contract amid his cutting of federal spending

• DOJ announces lawsuit against New York, Hochul and state AG James over ‘sanctuary’ status

Middle East

• Israel-Hamas ceasefire live updates: 3 hostages set free in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians

  • Why does Israel let go hundreds of criminals for 3 hostages?

• Israel plotting attack on Iranian nuclear sites now that Trump is in office

• Why Jews are fleeing the West

  • The rising anti-Semitic tide in Britain and North America is driving Jews to seek new safe havens.

• Hamas supporters are so desperate they’re literally hiring protesters on Craigslist—offering up to $1,000 to prop up their terror-loving tantrums.

  

Other Headlines

• Hedge Fund Founder Says the Future of Stock Picking Won’t Come From Hedging

  • “Where the world is heading, I think long-short will struggle to be a growth asset class,” Mandelblatt, who’s also Soroban’s Chief Investment Officer, told Bloomberg in a rare interview. Even as he raises cash for bullish bets, Mandelblatt acknowledges stocks are expensive. And after a steady bull-market, he isn’t ruling out a correction, either.

    

• Top US military contractors took a huge hit, shedding billions in market value beginning at exactly 2:23 PM — just under an hour before Trump announced plans for joint denuclearization with Russia & China

  • It was probably people in DC in the know trading on inside info.

    

• Dimon Says He’d Be Cutting ‘Stupid’ DEI Costs Even Without Trump

• JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon slams ‘f—ing’ anti-RTO petition

  • Love his tact here. Although I would prefer some hybrid for myself, return to office makes sense and will improve efficiency. Dimon made his view clear. 1,300 employees signed a petition to not return to office. Amazing leaked audio of Dimon. You go, Jamie! Best CEO around.

• NYSE to launch in Texas, escalating listing venue competition

  • If given regulatory approval, it should be up in 2026 and is backed by BlackRock, Citadel and Schwab.

• Arm shares rise on report that Meta will buy its first chip

• Zelle payments top $1 trillion in 2024 as network’s growth outpaces rivals

  • I only use Zelle. I never liked Venmo or PayPal.

• AppLovin soars almost 30% on earnings, guidance beat

• Reddit shares plunge after Google algorithm change contributes to miss in users

• Fox’s Super Bowl Drew a Record $800 Million in Advertising Sales

• Crazed commuter slashes NYPD officer with broken wine bottle, bites another trying to arrest him in ‘all-out dogpile’: cops

  • The West 4th Street Subway, two blocks from my old apartment. Nothing to see here folks. The city is safe and the subways are a dream. The article did not mention it, but I wonder how many times he was arrested previously.

• Trans migrant charged with raping 14-year-old boy in NYC park bathroom

• NY cops hunt for brute who shoved bystander into street (caught-on-video)

• Mayoral candidate Brad Lander wants to link store security cameras to NYPD to cut down on retail theft

• NYC teacher caught swearing at student in anti-Trump classroom meltdown wrote children’s book against prejudice

• At least 30 injured in Munich after driver plows into crowd in ‘suspected attack’ — just one day before Vance’s meeting with Zelensky.

  • The driver was a 24-year-old Afghan migrant who recently had his asylum application rejected.

• Store security video catches NYC slip-and-fall scammer red-handed: ‘I want to put this guy in jail’

  • I had a situation where a delivery guy claimed to slip in front of my house. My security cam said otherwise. When I showed it to him, all the sudden his back did not hurt so much.

• Idaho Murders Suspect Bryan Kohberger 'Could Walk Free' Due To Bombshell DNA Evidence

• Disney ditches trigger warnings in DEI bonfire

  • Entertainment giant removes disclaimers on beloved classics in major shift

• NY school board meeting descends into chaos over ‘LGBTQIA+’ book as large group of fuming parents takes over

• What’s the best time for taking a nap?

• I’ve been studying the brain for 15 years. If you do just one thing for sharper memory, make it this

• OpenTable’s Top 100 Romantic Restaurants in America for 2024

  • I don’t agree with some of these restaurants, but I am sure many are solid.

• New footage shows moment military fighter jet crashes into San Diego Bay as pilots eject safely

  • Crazy footage.

• John Legend Admits He and Chrissy Teigen Will ‘Probably’ Quit L.A. and Move Back to New York After Wildfires

• Conservative influencer Ashley St. Clair claims she had Elon Musk’s 13th child five months ago

  • Musk will single-handedly end declining birthrates.

• What’s happening in Sicily - Italy is absolutely extraordinary Mount Etna is erupting with its summit covered in snow

  • AMAZING video.

• Bombshell spy intel reveals Putin arming for ‘large-scale’ war that will trigger WW3…& it’s not long until he can strike

Real Estate

• I have written extensively about the rapid growth in housing prices in South Florida. The pandemic turbocharged prices all over the country, but South Florida saw exponential growth in markets. Sadly, one of the issues is many areas have become unaffordable. This WSJ article, “Entry-Level Homes in Miami Are Going Extinct,” outlines the issues. As deep-pocketed buyers in the Miami area push luxury home prices to record highs, starter houses are disappearing from the market. Between 2019 and 2024, a five-year period that saw hedge-fund manager Ken Griffin hand Miami its first $100 million home purchase—followed by a slew of other megadeals—the number of annual single-family home sales in Miami-Dade County below $500,000 dropped 79.6%, according to research firm Analytics Miami. Since 2019, wealthy buyers have reshaped Miami’s luxury market. The number of single-family home sales above $10 million was up 248.4% in 2024 compared with that of 2019. In fact, in Miami-Dade County, the luxury threshold for single-family homes—meaning the top 5% of the market—reached $3.3 million in 2024, up from $1.4 million in 2019. The threshold for the top 1% of the market was $10 million in 2024 up from $3.5 million in 2019. Adding to the issues of housing costs are sky-high insurance rates and higher interest and maintenance costs.

  

• The Fisher Island, Florida, home of a 50-year-old Russian oligarch who died under suspicious circumstances in Antibes, France, has sold for $14.82 million.

  I would never live on Fisher Island given you need a boat to get off the island. My ADHD would never allow me to last there. The house is ugly.

• Multiple stories about the DC housing market in complete chaos between return to the office mandates, layoffs, corruption being exposed, new administration starting and more. Inventory is hitting the market at an alarming rate and Newsweek outlines a story. This CNBC article outlines unemployment spikes in DC as Trump and Musk begin to shrink the number government employees. In November 2024, the median home in Washington, DC was worth ~$699,000, according to Redfin. Today, the median home is worth $560,000, marking a -20% drop in ~3 months.

  

© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #762 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.