Opening Comments
My last note was entitled, “Eric-The Iceman” about my budding cold plunge skills. The most opened links were the humpback whale eating a kayaker and the video of the Chicago River frozen and covered in ice.
I spent Monday and Tuesday at the JPM Leveraged Finance Conference in Miami Beach –always a great event and a chance to catch up with old friends and colleagues. It is a nice event and enjoy my annual excursion. So many of the young people I hired 20 years ago are doing amazing things. I enjoy seeing people who work hard and add value find success at a great company. Jamie spoke at lunch in front of over 1,300 people and was not bullish on markets and credit spreads. He suggested his best trades would be to “buy VIX and buy MOVE,” both are effectively going long volatility. He was also critical of too many regulations and inefficiency in the government. He is so refreshing to listen to and such a common sense leader. I wish there were more like him. This CNBC article outlines his views on DOGE and government inefficiency.
Markets
America vs Europe in Start Ups-Not a Close Fight
US Economy Depends on the Rich
Crazy College Admissions Story-Took a Job at Google Instead
Remarkable College Athlete Story
DeSantis Eliminating FL R/E Taxes?
Ken Griffin Park Ave Apt Purchase
Commercial R/E Woes
$4k/month NYC Apt on the Subway Tracks
$125mm Aspen Home for Sale
Picture of the Day-Ballerina Dancing in Antarctica
Ballerina’s viral dance so visually stunning, social media couldn’t believe it wasn’t AI-generated Ballerina Victoria Dauberville was filmed performing a dance on the edge of a cruise ship’s bilge, mere inches from Antarctica’s icy waters. The visually-stunning moment was so awe-inspiring, social media couldn’t believe that it was real. The short video is amazing.
Concierge Medicine is Booming
I have written extensively about healthcare costs and frustrations with finding doctors to take your insurance. I am spending over $100k a year on healthcare between insurance, out-of-pocket expenses, medicine, concierge doctors, and physical therapy that is not covered by insurance. I have been frustrated trying to find quality doctors as well. If you are in a major city with fantastic hospitals, you have a much better chance of getting a high-quality doctor that will accept a new patient.
This NY Post article is entitled, “Concierge medicine is booming — and some New Yorkers are willing to pay almost anything for the privilege.” One of my friends pays $60k a year for his concierge medicine program and raves to me about it. “Eric, it is worth every penny.” I just do not understand how the average family affords healthcare and out-of-pocket expenses with the high cost and high deductible plans out there.
More and more wealthy New Yorkers are spending big for concierge medical care that goes way above and beyond annual check-ups. “I’m 70% doctor, 15% psychologist, 10% rabbi, 4% hairdresser and 1% friend,” Dr. Jordan Shlain told NYNext. His team is also on call pretty much 24/7, with clients able to reach them via email, text or phone at all hours. Shlain is the founder of Private Medical, an on-call physician service he started in 2002 in Silicon Valley. There are now outposts in New York City, Miami, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, Beverly Hills and Santa Monica, and none of them take insurance.
Though data on the industry is limited, concierge medicine has grown into a $7.47 billion market this year and is projected to nearly double to $13.5 billion by 2030, according to a report from Research and Markets. Shlain’s company is perhaps the most high-profile of a growing world of elite providers, along with Atria and Sollis, that are so hot they don’t even advertise — relying instead on word-of-mouth to attract new clients willing to shell out, on average, around $30,000 for the privilege of having a doctor on call (Price varies depending on factors like age, location and the number of patients in a practice).
I see a doctor at Mount Sinai in Miami Beach, which costs me $8,000 a year for access, plus a co-pay for each visit. She is a cardiologist by training, and I have her cell phone number. If I send her a text, she responds in minutes generally and when I go to see her, she spends an hour with me. However, I must drive one hour (no traffic) to see her and require a plan to get down given the traffic. My wife uses a local doctor for $4,500/year. Down by me in Boca, nearly all the concierge doctors are full and won’t take new patients.
What is crystal clear is the state of healthcare in America is broken. It is too expensive and in total, we are not getting amazing outcomes relative to other countries spending less. Sure, I feel good about my doctors, but I am involved in hospitals in NYC and am spending six figures a year on my family’s health care. It is absurd.
Quick Bites
Stocks sold off again Tuesday for a four day sell-off in the S&P due to weaker than expected consumer confidence, Trump’s tariffs for Canada and Mexico, and weakness in Nvidia shares. The consumer confidence data saw the biggest drop since 2021 as seen in the chart below. I feel Trump needs to stick with a plan and stop the on and off tariff plans, as markets do not like uncertainty. Salesforce earnings post closing and the stock was -6% despite an EPS beat with a revenue miss, while Snowflake beat pushing the stock +11% after hours. Nvidia reported earnings after the bell on Wednesday and beat on earnings and revenues as well as data center revenues. The stock was volatile in minutes post earnings and ranged from -3% to +4% but was flat at 4:27pm. On a positive note, we have seen a sharp rally in the 10-year bond given the risk off sentiment in stocks, and the yield is now down to 4.26% from a recent high of 4.8%. Bitcoin fell to a 3-month low of $84k after hitting an all-time high of if $109k on Jan 20th. Bitcoin ETFs saw a record outflow of $1bn in a single day. However, on the bullish front, Cantor Fitzgerald (Howard Lutnick’s old firm) bought $1bn of Microstrategy recently and the Trump administration insiders are very big in crypto.
The US is the place to have innovation and build a giant company. Look at the companies started in the US in recent decades that have become massive (Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, Walmart, Microsoft, Netflix, Palantir, Nvidia, TSLA, Broadcom, Home Depot, Salesforce, OpenAI, and so many others. The 1st chart shows public companies (less than 50 years old) with $10bn+ market caps relative to the EU. Obviously, we have some large privately held companies not on the list. Why does the US crush Europe in so many business related matters? The list is long, but the EU is rife with regulations, the continent is far more risk averse, limited access to funding and the tech talent largely does not live there. Labor costs, liability laws, and I am sure there are other reasons as well. This Substack outlines numerous ideas as well. The 2nd chart shows venture capital investments by country. The US DOMINATES. Despite all the faults, it is hard to suggest America is not the place for innovation.
Great WSJ article, “The U.S. Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People.” Many Americans are pinching pennies, exhausted by high prices and stubborn inflation. The well-off are spending with abandon. The top 10% of earners—households making about $250,000 a year or more—are splurging on everything from vacations to designer handbags, buoyed by big gains in stocks, real estate and other assets. Those consumers now account for 49.7% of all spending, a record in data going back to 1989, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics. Three decades ago, they accounted for about 36%. All this means that economic growth is unusually reliant on rich Americans continuing to shell out. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, estimated that spending by the top 10% alone accounted for almost one-third of gross domestic product. Between September 2023 and September 2024, the high earners increased their spending by 12%. Spending by working-class and middle-class households, meanwhile, dropped over the same period. The wealth disparity is a growing concern of mine. The wealth gap for the well-educated to the less educated population is too high. Also, those who own stocks and their homes have a far higher net worth than those who don’t. The solution is not higher taxes for wealthy to distribute to the poor. The solution is education, vocational training, and helping people better understand finances. I have mentored a great number of people on financial matters and can tell you some of the things that came up were shocking to me. We live in too much of an instant gratification society where people buy things they cannot afford and use expensive credit card debt.
I have written extensively about college admissions and tuition costs. This remarkable story of a California brilliant young man was something I had to write about. Stanley Zhong graduated high school with a 4.4 GPA and a 1590 on his SAT yet was rejected by 16 out of 18 schools. Instead, he took a PhD level job as a software engineer at Google. He also founded his own document-signing startup and tutored underserved kids in coding. His college rejections and his employment offer from Google became a lightning rod in the national debate over the college admissions process. The articles did not mention his starting salary, but according to a Google search, it is in the $180-300k range. Think of the ridiculous statement that 16 schools rejected this kid who is clearly brilliant and blows away an overwhelming majority of those who gained admission. The rejection saved his family a lot of tuition and he will be far more successful with this route as well as wealthier (no college cost, no debt, makes money immediately…). This is a short video of a news story and interview of Stanley. The Zhong family is suing for racial discrimination. Clearly, Stanley is winning in life, and I hope he becomes incredibly successful and does not donate one dollar to the schools that rejected him.
Amazing story of a remarkable athlete. Omaha North’s Tyson Terry tore his ACL in October during a football game and wrestled on it the whole season to complete the first heavyweight four-peat in Nebraska high school history. Terry finished his career 169-0 and will join Nebraska football as a d-lineman next.
Politics
I am in FULL agreement with holding Federal employees accountable. This article suggests 1mm employees responded. If you cannot articulate what you have accomplished in the last week, you should be fired. Every year, people who worked for me were replaced with higher producing employees. People complaining about being held responsible should not have a job. Yes, Musk and Trump are breaking glass, but decades of abuse, waste, graft, and fraud are coming to light. I am not convinced it will result in the $2 trillion savings goal, but I will take 25% of that amount. Note the Senator’s comments to Musk’s Tweet. Kash Patel tells FBI staff to ignore Elon Musk’s productivity email as signs of power struggles emerge in D.C.: reports.
Federal buildings chief eyes 50% space reduction, moving GSA out of its headquarters
Think of the billions in annual waste of thousands of unoccupied or barely used Federal buildings across the country. One article suggests 11mm square feet of space is under utilized. I would have thought it was more than that. For perspective, the GM building in NYC is 1.7mm square feet. This note from Congressman Scott Perry outlines all kinds of real estate waste by the government. This WSJ article outlines Washington D.C. and office woes in that town, especially considering DOGE cuts. The federal government leases about 150 million square feet of office space and owns over 450 million square feet. A large amount of the owned space is underused and badly in need of maintenance.
The Trump administration is firing 2,000 USAID workers and putting thousands of others on leave
Based on how USAID spends our money, I cannot imagine this is a bad thing.
New Harvard/Harris Poll from Feb 19-20
Ex-Secret Service agent and conservative media personality Dan Bongino picked as FBI deputy director
Trump manufacturing win: Apple to spend $500 billion in U.S., hire 20,000
Trump says Zelenskyy to visit U.S. to sign critical rare minerals deal on Friday
US splits with European allies over UN Ukraine resolution vote
Pam Bondi: Jeffrey Epstein’s Client List is ‘Sitting on My Desk’
Let’s go.
FCC Chair Brendan Carr taking first steps in eroding key legal protection enjoyed by Big Tech
The article outlines Section 230 protections of tech and social media.
Hochul’s Insane $252 Billion State Budget Sets Fire to Taxpayer Money
I was shocked to see the $252bn budget last month and decided to do some work understanding the shocking growth. For perspective, the budget in 2008-9 was $124bn. So we are looking at growth of $128bn over 17 years… and what does the state have to show for it. I’ll speak specifically about NYC, where the streets and subways feel less safe, there’s more homeless, and more illegal immigrants despite the $128bn of additional spending. Sorry, DOGE needs to go in there and cut spending. The cost of living has gone through the roof, and many of the wealthiest residents have left for Florida. If I spent an incremental $100bn+, I can assure you, the state would have far more to show for it.
Chicago's Moron Mayor Has One Of The Worst Approval Ratings In Political History
So, the brilliant constituents from Chicago voted in Lori Lightfoot who was a complete disaster only to then elect Brandon Johnson. A new Politico report has Johnson’s approval rating at 6.6% and a 79.9% unfavorable rating. Do you know how hard it is to be that bad? Chicago voters are to blame. Only 35% of Chicago residents turned out to vote in the runoff for the Mayor race that put Johnson in office.
Conservative opposition wins German election and the far right is 2nd with strongest postwar result
Voter turnout jumped to 83% from 76% in the prior election. Compare this with the 2024 US elections, which saw less than 64% turnout. The chart below shows US voter turnout since 2002. Wisconsin had the highest turnout at 76.9% and Oklahoma had the lowest at 53.3%.
Middle East
Israel sends tanks into West Bank, tells troops to ready for 'extended' stay
The only solution in my mind is the complete evisceration of Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and taking out the nuclear capabilities of Iran.
Other Headlines
‘People are really bulled up’: Stock surge has some on Wall Street worried
The Federal Reserve’s favorite recession indicator is flashing a danger sign again
Economists are starting to worry about a serious Trump recession
J.P. Morgan Increases Direct Lending Commitment to $50 Billion
MicroStrategy Shares Have Been Cut in Half
On November 21st, the stock was $543 and is now $256/share.
Home Depot earnings beat Wall Street estimates, as retailer breaks comparable sales losing streak
Super Micro Computer shares surge 14% after company files delayed financials by deadline
Palantir drops 10% for worst day since May as investors continue dumping onetime market favorite
Hims & Hers shares tumble 18% as margin miss adds to concerns about GLP-1 business
The stock was $73/share one week ago and now down to $37/share.
Crypto exchange Bybit says it replenished reserves after record $1.5 billion hack
Joann to shutter all 800 fabric stores after failing to find a buyer to save its locations
NYC’s ‘worst drug dealer,’ 20, busted again with crack cocaine, heroin
Twenty arrests in two years and continues to roam the streets. WTF.
Violence by Women Soars in California
According to the report by the Public Policy Institute of California, female violent crime arrest rate in the state has risen by 60% since 1980.
Italy’s Cervino resort has a new luxury hotel and peak skiing at unbeatable prices
Place looks amazing and prices are fractional to the nice resorts in the states. Rooms, lift tickets, ski rentals are literally 20-25% of the fancy US resorts. When I go to Italy, I eat like a pig and never feel sick or gain weight. The food is so much cleaner. If I do not make the pasta myself using 00 flour and eggs, I buy “Made in Italy,” and it is so much better than the crap made in America.
I love to see this. It may be going a bit too far, but too many pro athletes file for bankruptcy and blow through their wealth. I mentored NBA players for years and I have some crazy stories. 16% of NFL players have filed for bankruptcy within 12 years of retirement. Being fiscally responsible is imperative.
Parents with these 2 toxic habits raise kids who are bad with money, says investment firm CEO
This country is the No. 1 solo travel destination for 2025—it’s not the US
Never been on a cruise and no desire. They just seem like a cesspool.
Georgia man sentenced to 20 years for bombing woman’s home, planting python to eat her daughter
What the hell is wrong with people? He met a woman on a dating app (no relationship) and blew up her house and planted a python to eat the woman’s daughter? The world is a terrible place.
Wild caught-on-camera brawl at Atlanta airport likened to ‘Braveheart’
What airline you ask? Of course it was Spirit, the worst airline of all time.
Dramatic moment Italian fighter jets swoop on American Airlines plane after mid-air bomb threat
Health Related
Ditch the ‘beige diet’ and add these 10 heart-healthy foods to your grocery cart — including dessert
Lots of people live past 90 in this tropical locale — these ‘three sisters’ are part of their diet
Nicoya’s longest-living residents have historically eaten a light, early dinner and leaned on a diet broken down into 26% whole grains, 24% dairy, 14% vegetables, 11% added sugars, 9% fruits, 7% legumes, 5% meat, fish and poultry, and a minimal amount of eggs and added fats.
Scientists find clues on why COVID vaccine causes chronic health problems in some
While rare, ‘post-vaccination syndrome’ can cause long-term adverse effects. I know dozens of people who have bad side effects from the vaccines.
Real Estate
The Florida Legislature is considering a move to eliminate property taxes in the state, a radical step that has the backing of Gov. Ron DeSantis. If actually carried out, the proposal would make Florida the first state in the country without property taxes, a prospect that has already drawn strong reactions from both supporters and opponents. Property taxes fund schools, parks, and emergency services. Florida has no income tax, and the proposed study would examine whether higher sales taxes could fill the funding gap if property taxes are eliminated. Property taxes make up about 73% of school district revenue, according the report. And property taxes make up about 18% of county revenue and 17% of municipal revenue, helping communities address some of their most critical needs, including fire and police services. For perspective, Florida R/E taxes generate $43bn/year in revenue and I am not convinced eliminating them is in the long-term best interest of Florida residents. DeSantis has done an amazing job from a fiscal perspective while Governor. Since taking office, he has paid DOWN 36% of all of Florida’s outstanding debt while most other states continue to run deficits. He did this with ZERO income tax. While states like NY continue to expand budgets, Florida is REDUCING spending. As someone who pushes fiscal responsibility, debt reduction, balanced budgets, and common sense, I hope the end of R/E tax in Florida does not pass even though it will save me $85k year on R/E taxes.
Ken Griffin of Citadel fame is worth tens of billions, but I must tell you for the life of me, I do not understand his buying habits on Real Estate. He has spent billions on homes in recent years across South Florida, NYC, French Rivera, and London. His latest purchase was at 740 Park Avenue for a unit he bought for $45mm from Julia Koch. It is 1.5 miles from his $238mm condo in 220 Central Park South. See below? Who the hell needs two apartments that close even if you have the money?
At the end of Q4 2024, commercial real estate continued to exhibit severe weakness, with commercial real estate bonds hitting record distress levels, surpassing the previous records reached in Q3 2024. Commercial real estate bonds are just commercial real estate loans packaged into securities and sold to investors. One category of bonds, commercial mortgage-backed securities (“CMBS”), saw their distress rate increase to 10.6%, a fourth consecutive monthly record. Most notably, in the CMBS category—which comprises approximately $625 billion in outstanding commercial real estate debt—loans on office properties now exhibit a distress rate above 17% while apartment loan distress accelerated to 12.5%. While loans underlying CMBS bonds—which are generally longer-term and fixed-rate—appear woefully insolvent, another group of bonds comprising short-term floating-rate commercial real estate loans are even worse. The weighted average Debt Service Coverage Ratio (“DSCR”)—the ratio of net cash flow to debt service—for the entire bond is a lousy 0.54x.
This article is about a new NYC apartment for $4k/month that is literally on the subway tracks in Brooklyn. The platform barriers are barely 5 feet from the building and when a train pulls in, it’s about 10 feet away. A Brooklyn realtor shared a video of a $4,000 a month third-floor walkup directly opposite the tracks on social media in December and it has since gone viral with over 7 million views. If you are young and want to learn, live in NYC and gain valuable experience. However, given the cost of living, you better have a lot of roommates, make a ton of money, or have parents who can contribute. A one bedroom in my old building in the Village is approximately $8k/month. The building has a doorman but no gym, parking, or amenities. I want to put this in perspective. When I rented the 4-bedroom PH (same building) in 2002, I paid $7k/month and it had its own laundry room, chef’s kitchen, big terrace, and 3 full bathrooms.
16,631-square-foot main cabin and other amenities across 53 acres.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #765 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
