Opening Comments
My last note was a review of a new Japanese restaurant in Boca called, Kasumi. The most opened links were the video of Jon Stewart crushing the Department of Defense about waste and the 19 additional Michelin Star restaurants announced in NYC.
I was in NYC for the 3i Summit and it was a smashing success. I will be writing more about it in an upcoming report. An impressive group of people attended and the feedback on the conference was stellar. It was exciting for me to be one of the first members of 3i and help influence the outcome with the amazing 3i team. Most of the 3i Members are readers of the RR and it was great for me to meet in person. Note the speakers below.
Despite only being in NYC for two nights, I ate at Karumazushi (good but overpriced), Borgo (solid new addition) and Massara (perfection). Again, I will write them up in detail in an upcoming report.
More readers continue to switch to Lang Insurance, my sponsor, who covers you for your property and casualty needs in all 50 states. The latest convert sent me this note: “Lang is great. I will mention him to friends.” Lang saved me and dozens of readers big money on their insurance needs. Call Kevin Lang at 866-964-4434.
Markets
NYC Hotel Prices
Robots Taking Over
ATP Tennis Compensation Growth
Priced Out of Paradise
Tom Brady’s Estate
$78mm Bal Harbor Home
Pictures of The Day-I Can’t Drive 55
It is hard to believe that on Monday I will be 55 years old. I feel like yesterday I was graduating from college and that was over 32 years ago. I will only tell you that time flies and I have been extremely fortunate to have led an amazing life thus far. It has surpassed my wildest dreams. Appreciate every day with your friends and family and be sure to have fun. The Sammy Haggar song, “I Can’t Drive 55,” from 1984 - my freshman year of high school - seems appropriate for me today. I don’t know what goes on with my hair, but starting in 1981, I had some crazy hairdos. The mullet in the 80s was a bit embarrassing in hindsight.
Alarm Clock Blues
Whenever I need to wake up early for a flight or to go fishing, I sleep a bit cautiously. The alarm is set for 4:30 am or 4:45 am, but I am still worried I will oversleep. Even when I turn out the lights to crash for the evening, I am anxious. I check to make sure the volume is up on the phone. I double-check to make sure I set it for am, not pm. My normal routine is thrown for a loop. I cannot tell you the number of times I may wake in the middle of the night, frantic that I overslept. I have proof from my Eight Sleep reports.
On Wednesday, I flew to NYC on the 6 am flight from FLL to LGA and woke up at 4:25 am to be sure I got to the airport on time. My sleep was awful. Too short and too shallow. I did the same thing I always do when I need to wake up early. I must have checked my phone seven times between midnight and 4 am, convinced I would miss my flight. The anxiety I feel the night before I need to wake up early is palpable and it impacts my sleep. It is the Early Alarm Clock Blues.
As an aside, I sleep much better when I am at home and on my Eight Sleep Pod 4. Having just spent two nights in a hotel in NYC, I barely slept, longing for my bed. You can get a discount at Eight Sleep using the code ROSEN with extra savings until 12/14.
Quick Bites
The Dow ended the week about 2% higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each added about 1.7%. That marks a turn from last week, when Wall Street’s postelection rally stalled. The 10-Year Treasury was -2bps on the week to 4.41%. The biggest story of the week was Bitcoin, which closed at $99.3k after being $7k five years ago and $20k two years ago.
A friend wanted to meet me in NYC last week and he asked what hotel he should stay at on Tuesday night. I looked up hotels and was shocked at the prices. Crap hotels I never heard of were $500+ and nice ones were $1,500+. This is midweek, before Thanksgiving. The Holiday Inn was $500! A combination of events got us here. One, COVID shut down thousands of rooms which did not ever reopen. Next, approximately 12% of the room inventory for NYC is reserved for illegal immigrant-that’s 16,000 out of 136,000 rooms, and the all-in cost is $332/day, according to this report. As of May 2024, there were approximately 54,000 individuals in hotels in NYC that were paid for by the working people of NYC. This article suggests 135 out of 680 hotels in NYC are housing illegal immigrants and CoStar believes that the reduction in available supply is directly related to the spike in hotel room costs. As of July, an estimated 77% of asylum seekers are sheltered in hotels around New York City. The last contributor to the increased room rates is the fact that NYC is back in fashion and people are in the office more than they were the last few years. More business meetings are done in person and tourism is picking up. A fancy Midtown hotel, the Baccarat, was sold out Tuesday and Wednesday nights. On Thursday, the cheapest room was $2,178.
I thought this headline was fascinating, “Almost 10% Of South Korea's Workforce Is Now A Robot.” The use of robots in factories around the world has more than doubled in the last seven years, with South Korea topping the list of countries with the highest robot density, according to a report.
China has also surpassed Germany and Japan in the use of robots in 2023, an annual survey by the International Federation of Robotics shows.
South Korea is the main adopter of industrial robots with 1,012 per 10,000 employees, and has increased its use of robots by 5% each year since 2018, the IFR found. Where will the US workforce look like in 10 years as robotics and AI take off? The positive news is that automation is good for company profit margins and is deflationary as the workforce is replaced. The bad news is, between robots and AI, there will be a lot of displaced workers.
I have written about the salaries of professional athletes and compared them to prior decades. In this section, I am discussing professional tennis players and the incredible sums of money the top players are making today. The first chart shows that Mens #1, Sinner, has made $17mm on the court in an amazing year with eight wins. However, Coco Gauff has made $9.4mm with three wins in 2024. In the mid-70s and early 80s, Bjorn Borg was the king of the court, winning 11 Grand Slam titles and a total of $3.6mm in career earnings ($20mm adjusted for inflation). In 1980, he won 11 times and made $100k. Jimmy Connors won 109 titles and made $8.6mm between 1972-1996. Steffi Graf won 107 titles and 22 majors earning $21.9mm on the court between 1982 and 1989. I have not even touched endorsements, which were fractional 40 years ago compared to the money earned today. Take Roger Federer, who is worth an estimated $550mm due to $130mm of career earnings, amazing endorsements and ownership of companies like On Cloud shoes. His endorsements have earned him nearly $1bn. Serena Williams, arguably the best women’s player ever, earned $94.8mm in career earnings between 1995 and 2002. If she started her career today, she would have earned a heck of a lot more than that.
Election
Trump AG pick Matt Gaetz says he’s withdrawing
I was extremely critical of the nomination and wrote that he would not make the cut. I’m glad he “decided” to drop out and it shows that Trump faced pushback from Republicans. There is speculation Gaetz could be a Senator for Florida. Does this guy have compromising pictures of people? He announced he would not rejoin Congress, saying “eight years is probably enough.” Gaetz also joined Cameo and is charging hundreds of dollars for sending personalized video messages.
What To Know About Scott Bessent: Trump’s Pro-Tariff Treasury Pick
I thought it would be Rowan from Apollo. Bessent is smart and experienced in markets with a good reputation, but is pro-tariffs, something that concerns me a bit. I hope the tariffs are used for negotiating purposes. Bessent is pro-crypto. I have never seen crypto investors more excited.
Trump names former Florida AG Pam Bondi as his new pick for U.S. attorney general
This seems like a much better pick than Gaetz, but that was a low bar.
Trump picks Dr. Marty Makary, a Johns Hopkins surgeon, for FDA chief
I am close to Dr Makary. Most of his ideas around COVID proved true even when he was vilified for it. He has been to my house for dinner multiple times and we have golfed together. We have spent hours discussing COVID, vaccines, natural immunity, lockdowns… I met him through the Rosen Report.
Trump expected to offer Kelly Loeffler Secretary of Agriculture
Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy outline plan for 'large-scale firings' in federal workforce under Trump
Absences by Trump’s Senate pals help Democrats confirm Biden judges
Senate showdown: GOP secures deal with Schumer to save coveted appellate judges for Trump
SEC Chair Gary Gensler will step down Jan. 20, make way for Trump replacement
My best way to describe Gensler is that he is not a commercial thinker and the markets are better without him involved. To say I am not a fan could be the understatement of the century. I had a legendary run-in with Gensler a dozen years ago (CFTC) and it could be a skit on SNL.
Taking weeks to count votes does not give me a lot of confidence. FL had the votes counted in hours. Let’s have a better process to eliminate questions of election integrity. In 2024, we can catch rockets but not count votes for weeks?
She states the election of Trump was the primary motivation.
Read the article to see the sharp drop in viewership post-Trump meeting.
The four hot-button issues are Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China's path and system, and the country's rights to development.
Middle East
Israel pounds southern Lebanon and Beirut outskirts, killing five medics
Senate rejects Sanders-backed proposals to block arms sales to Israel
Israeli babies are murdered, women are raped, kids are slaughtered and they want to go after Netanyahu? You are focusing on the wrong team. Israel is held to a higher standard.
Israel kills Hezbollah leader who planned elaborate attack on U.S. soldiers in Iraq
Missing Israeli Rabbi found murdered in UAE, Netanyahu vows revenge on killers
Terrorists may be eyeing Macy’s Thanksgiving parade as target, officials warn
Other Headlines
Morgan Stanley CEO is bullish on stocks, says the U.S. economy is ‘outperforming’
This guy seems to be a perma-bear. Stocks may be fully valued today, but not convinced of this guy’s doom and gloom. On the positive side, Trump is pro-growth and anti regulation which are positives for stocks.
Why billionaire Howard Marks is snapping up 'uninvestable' Chinese assets
Amazon to invest another $4 billion in Anthropic, OpenAI’s biggest rival
China’s Dollar Bond Sale Inundated With $40 Billion of Bids
China raised $2 billion from three- and five-year securities at one and three basis points over US Treasuries. The issuance was oversubscribed by 20 times and the price was shockingly close to yields on US Treasuries.
Charlie Gasparino on debt levels and accusations of the US Treasury.
Nvidia shares slump 3% in premarket as quarterly revenue growth slows
Adani Group shares nosedive after chairman Gautam Adani charged with fraud
Gap shares surge as it raises guidance, touts 'strong start' to holiday
Here’s why Dollar Tree and Dollar General stocks have plummeted
Federal government agencies are using 12% of the space in their DC headquarters
NYC ICE director declares ‘it would take a lifetime’ to deport the city’s migrant criminals
Venezuelan migrant arrested in Colorado for allegedly sexually assaulting boss' 14-year-old daughter
FBI: Florida Man Planned to Bomb NY Stock Exchange
The FBI has arrested Harun Abdul-Malik Yener, alleging he wanted to set off a series of bombs in the U.S saying “I feel like Bin Laden”
Illinois high court overturns convictions for Jussie Smollett in alleged hoax
This seems like the wrong outcome to me.
Skilled burglars are targeting pro athletes’ homes. Here’s what we know
South American groups are responsible. The open border strikes again.
Portland woman tells accused homeless thieves it’s OK to steal from ‘rich scum,’ just not her
Thanksgiving winter storm forecast to bring snow, heavy rain during holiday travel
‘I have no money’: Thousands of Americans see their savings vanish in Synapse fintech crisis
Sounds like a smaller situation with $65mm in deposits and approximately $12mm available to repay it.
82% of workers who asked for a raise in the last year got one, says new report
MIT To Waive Tuition For New, Eligible Students
Beginning in the 2025–2026 academic year, undergraduates from families earning less than $200,000 annually with typical assets will be eligible to attend MIT tuition-free.
After youth vaping surge, the U.K. moves to ban disposable e-cigarettes
Sounds disgusting.
Jaguar stock price tumbles amid ‘woke’ ad ‘backlash’
I wrote extensively about the absurdity of the Bud Light/Dylan Mulvaney ad campaign. Well now, we have another idiotic DEI ad from Jaguar. People should be fired and the ad agency should be sued. Watch it for yourself. It might be the worst ad ever. No cars in an ad for a car company. The Jaguar boss is livid about the reaction. The ad was crushed by Musk.
Duct-taped banana sells for $6.2 million at art auction
The absurdity of the world never ceases to amaze me. For $6mm, you can buy multiple amazing pieces of art from historically important artists. A crypto currency investor with too much money paid the ridiculous sum after a bidding war. Bitcoin at nearly $100k brings out idiots who have too much money. It is a real banana that you can buy for a dime.
Shake Shack cheeseburgers to be served in first class on Delta flights
Mysterious orb zooming past NYC accidentally caught on film by local news chopper
Another day, another UFO sighting.
Russia launches intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine, Kyiv says
Real Estate
Rich Newcomers in Miami Price Out Teachers at $52,000 Schools
Given the cost of homes in many locations, including Miami, Palm Beach, the Hamptons and others, I do not understand how school teachers can afford to live anywhere near the school. The Bloomberg article discusses Miami and the rapid rise in housing prices, leaving school teachers and others in a challenging situation. The suggestion is schools are trying to get creative to increase teacher pay, including potentially charging more for the wealthiest parents. Workforce housing is a huge deal. Think about the Hamptons. How can you be a school teacher or have the equivalent salary in the Hamptons? Where will you live, given the absurdity of home prices?
I laughed at the title of this article, as the author has no idea about high-end South Florida real estate. “Tom Brady shows off his sprawling $17M Miami bachelor pad in new photos: ‘One of those mornings.’ Tom’s house is in Indian Creek, the single most expensive R/E in the state of Florida. Bezos paid $90mm for an inferior house to Brady’s and Bezos also paid $147mm for two lots to build a home. Brady’s house is worth over $100mm and some believe $150mm. The author suggested $17mm. The massive estate had a $35mm JPM construction loan. Sorry, NY Post, this is no $17mm home. It would be closer if you added a zero!
Mark Fisher is a successful commodities trader who is asking $78mm for his Bal Harbor waterfront home. He paid $9mm for the lot in 2013 and built a 21,000-square-foot mansion on it. The house is at 284 Bal Bay Drive. This is not a house I would buy at any price anywhere near this asking price. Seems crazy to me.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #737 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.