"Forever is Composed of Nows."-Dickenson
12/29/24
Opening Comments
My last note was about my Mexican Vacation. The most opened links were reasons Americans pay more for healthcare and the 9 game-changing new restaurants in Miami.
My famous bet with Chris Burch for a fancy dinner is over on Tuesday. With two trading days left, the Russell 2000 is +10.5% YTD and has to be 17% or higher for Chris to win. Unless the markets explode higher on Monday and Tuesday, dinner is on Chris at a fancy place of my choice. I will starve myself for the day and wear elastic pants to ensure maximum food consumption. Chris, bring your Amex Black Card, you are going to need it.
Thank You
As we wrap up another year of the Rosen Report, I want to express my heartfelt gratitude to all of you. Thank you for your support, ideas, and feedback over the past five years. This marks report #748 overall and #105 in 2024 – a milestone I couldn’t have reached without you. Your contributions and friendship have been invaluable, and I’ve learned so much from our interactions.
The RR has always been a labor of love. If I were in it for the income, the time-to-reward ratio would have stopped me long ago. Instead, I’ve continued because of the meaningful connections it has brought into my life. What started as an email to 18 readers has grown into something read in all 50 states and 101 countries – finally completing the map this year with two readers in Alaska thanks to help from readers. February will mark the 5th anniversary of this journey, and I’m endlessly grateful for the opportunities and friendships it has created.
Through the Rosen Report, I’ve had the privilege to connect with incredible people. Your generosity toward me and my family never ceases to amaze. From thoughtful gifts like the new Meta/Ray-Ban glasses to tickets for the Wake Forest/Miami game, and even internships and career guidance for my son Jack, your kindness goes far beyond what I could have imagined. These connections are what make the Rosen Report so special.
The power of this community is truly global. Readers traveling to Vietnam have been connected with others in the region, creating memorable experiences. Another reader heading to Mexico City tapped into restaurant recommendations from the RR network. Whether it’s local insights or global connections, the Rosen Report fosters a sense of community I’m proud to be a part of.
Wishing everyone a happy, healthy New Year and much success in 2025. Today’s story is a fun one with a serious message, as I wanted to end the year on a happy note.
The CNN Year In Review Quiz can be found here. I got 18 out of 20. How did you do?
Markets
Rise of Autonomous Driving
Influencers
Spec Home Inventory Building
Housing Market Hot Spots
Cities with the Most Home Price Appreciation in 2024
Picture of the Day-Global Automotive Industry By Market Cap
A reader and regular contributor, Joe, sent me this chart that I thought was interesting. Musk is a polarizing figure, but what he has accomplished across his substantial portfolio is incredible. When I was at kid, it was the Big 3 (GM, Ford, Chrysler) that dominated the auto industry. The rise of Toyota and Honda came along, German auto companies, the Korean car manufacturers, and now look at TSLA. The Visual Capitalist has remarkable charts and information. Also of note, through October 2024, Toyota sold 8.56mm cars globally, while through September, TSLA sold 1.29mm units. The market cap of TSLA is now greater than the collective market cap of the auto manufacturers for any one country. The 2nd chart shows the “Most Satisfying vs Most Reliable” auto brands. Note how well Lexus and Subaru do on the survey again Visual Capitalist. Check out Rivian (most satisfying and least reliable).
“Forever is Composed of Nows” – Emily Dickenson
For much of my life, I’ve often felt restless, wanting more at every stage. As a kid, I always wanted to be older. When you are ten, you can’t wait until you are a teenager. Then you dream about the independence of driving a car and wanting to be 16 years old to get your license. I bought all my cars myself and purchased my first car two weeks before my 16th birthday. When you are 16 years old, you can’t wait to be 18 and then at 18, you need to be 21 to be able to drink and get into the cool bars legally.
As I look at my now 55-year-old self, I think about how silly I was for not enjoying the moment more at each stage of my life. I never took the time to celebrate wins as I should have.
Two separate incidents on our trip to Mexico made me think of writing this note. The resort was filled with young families: parents from 35-45 years old with kids aged 2-7 years old. I was reminded of how much I enjoyed that time with the family and how the parent/child relationship changed over the years. My favorite time of parenthood was when my kids were 3-5 years old. When I came home from work, the pitter-patter of little feet ran to hug Daddy. Now that Jack is soon off to college and Julia is right behind him – the idea of our soon-to-be empty nest seems far more daunting than I thought it would.
Separately, I ordered a drink at the bar, and of course, no one ever thought to ID me given my gray beard and face of someone certain to be drinking age. It reminded me of a funny story.
When I was young, I was a good kid. I worked multiple jobs over the years: washing dishes, running paper routes (Miami Herald & Bingo Shopper), bussing and waiting tables, valet parking, delivering pizzas, barbacking, shucking oysters and clams, and plenty more. I got solid grades and never got into trouble. I was never a huge partier despite hanging out with the surfing crowd. I drink more wine today than I ever drank beer in high school or college.
When I was a young teenager, the thing to do was roller skate. It was the early 1980s and rollerblading was not invented. My mom would drop me off at the Galaxy Roller Rink in Davie, Florida to meet my friends and we would roller skate to Joan Jett “I Love Rock’n Roll” and try to kiss some girls. I had Riedell speed skates with Panther Plates and Zinger wheels. How I remember that is absolutely beyond me.
I was 13 years old (1982) and when we would leave the rink, there was a Big Mini across the street. It was a drive-through convenience store mostly used to buy beer or cigarettes. My friend, Mike or I would walk over to Big Mini from Galaxy to be cool and buy a 6-pack of beer. I had no fake ID and at my age, I looked closer to 10 years old than drinking age.
There was a man behind the counter who had three prices for a 6-pack of Budweiser. If you had a valid ID and looked legal, you got the lowest price $3.69. If you had a fake ID but he knew it was fake, you paid $5.99. If you were me, walking through a drive-through with no ID and looking like you were in elementary school, you would have paid $8.99. However, when you walk back to your friends with beers, you seem cool. No, we did not get drunk. It was more about impressing the young ladies. We all sipped it and were bragging about how good it was even though I despise beer and always have. I have not had a beer in 35 years and do not think I will ever drink one. Shockingly, Galaxy and Big Mini are still there.
The short answer is to celebrate each day and enjoy every stage of life. It sure goes by fast. One day, the kids are sitting on your lap and the next they are towering over you and leaving the nest. The picture below is of Jack and Julia in Costa Rica in 2012. Time sure flies! I remember the trip as though it were yesterday. As Emily Dickenson’s poem says, “Forever is Composed of Nows.”
Quick Bites
The bond market is a concern. The 10-year yield is up to 4.62% or +44bps in December and almost 100bps since the 1st rate cut in September. Stocks sold off on Friday with the Nasdaq (-1.5%) and Russell underperforming (-1.6%). On the week, the S&P was +.7% and Nasdaq +.8%. Despite recent weakness in markets, very few people predicted the strength in 2024. YTD, the S&P is +25% and the Nasdaq +31%. After a big rally, the small caps (Russell 2000) lost steam and is +10.5% YTD. Bitcoin fell with the broader markets and higher rates and close at $94k or -2.6% on the week, but -12% since the $107k high on 12/17.
Despite General Motor’s decision to shutter its Cruise Robotaxi business earlier this month, the U.S. has never been closer to a driverless future. For the autonomous vehicle industry, 2024 will be remembered as the year that at least one major U.S. player -- Alphabet-owned Waymo -- saw glimmers of mainstream adoption and made strides toward commercial viability. That came after a rocky start for the self-driving car industry domestically. Following a decade of sizable venture investments in AV companies, Uber sold off its self-driving business in 2020 after a fatal collision, and two years later Ford abandoned its stake in its Robotaxi developers Argo.AI. In 2023, Cruise paused all of its driverless operations after collisions led to investigations and a suspension of its licenses in California. When GM decided to retreat from the Robotaxi business earlier this month, it had already poured $10 billion into Cruise. Waymo may have outlasted Cruise to lead the U.S. market but domestic competitors are working to catch up, too -- most notably Elon Musk’s automaker Tesla and Amazon-owned Zoox.
At stake is a share of a massive market for ride-hailing services in and beyond the U.S. According to research by Fortune Business Insights, the global ride-sharing market is projected to grow from an estimated $123.08 billion in 2024 to $480.09 billion by 2032. I am personally not prepared to get into an autonomous vehicle. I am sure over the next five years, my view will change. Readers have gone into a Waymo in San Fran and thought it worked great. Shockingly, they were a 30% premium to a traditional Uber.
I have written about influencers in the past and have been amazed at the wealth creation and power of their platforms. This Forbes report from last month shows some of the major influencers and their earnings and reach. Content is king, and people are being rewarded massively for it. I felt showing some numbers would open some eyes as to the amount of money earned in the space. The Forbes list below does not include people like Taylor Swift (283mm Instagram followers), Lionel Messi (504mm), Christiano Ronaldo (1bn), Selena Gomez (689mm), the Kardashians, and others who make a ton of money thanks to their social media presence. Many of these influencers launch brands and use their massive following to push sales (Skims, Feastibles, 818 Tequila, KKW Beauty, Unwell, Rare Beauty, Prime and many others). The list is not consider Only Fans creators who collectively generated $6.6bn of gross revenue in 2024 (the company keeps 20% of that revenue). The owner, Radvinsky, made almost $500mm in 2023 and it seems as though he is set for much larger profits in 2024. Content creators can make tens of millions of dollars per year on Only Fans. Many of the largest creators are not well educated but have developed massive followings. The influencer business is so strong that there is an affiliate marketing business run purely using influencers and it is quite successful. It is called LTK.
Election/Politics
A Razor-Thin House Majority Creates Headaches for Republicans
Incoming border czar Tom Homan says Trump admin will need $86B to ‘start’ mass deportations
Trump’s Christmas Day message to death-row inmates granted clemency by Biden: ‘GO TO HELL!’
I do not support Biden’s clemency deals to murders, rapists, and pedophiles.
Vladimir Putin says he’s ‘ready’ for potential meeting with Trump
Trump urges Supreme Court to hit pause on a law that could ban TikTok in the U.S. next month
I want TikTok banned. Nothing good comes of it. Horrible for kids.
Court orders Biden admin to stop selling border wall materials, was 'illegally subverting' laws
Americans spoke loudly that they want an answer to millions of illegal immigrants coming into the US each year. The Biden Administration’s handling of the border has been a disaster.
Musk and Ramaswamy ignite MAGA war over skilled immigration and American 'mediocrity'
Musk and Ramaswamy strongly feel that we need more engineers in the tech industry. I am fully supportive of visas for these workers. It turns out the H-1B visa program is a bit of a sham with many of the visas going to search firms. This version is a summary of the Bloomberg article.
MAGA opponents of Elon Musk claim he stripped them of their X badges
I disagree with Musk if this is true. X needs to be about free speech. Elon, you can’t have it both ways. I side with you on immigration for engineers but do not agree with blocking people who disagree. Why did you buy Twitter in the first place?
There needs to be a full investigation. Biden lied countless times on this subject. Americans were lied to by the administration, media, CIA (51 agents signed the letter saying the laptop was fake news) and many others. When I wrote about the laptop, I was vilified and canceled. Turns out everything in it was real and again, we have been gaslit. Biden claims he never spoke business with Hunter and never met Hunter’s associates, even after the photos surfaced. These pictures beg to differ. The ridiculous 11-year pardon clears Hunter. Let’s get Hunter under oath. Hunter admitted in a deposition the meetings happened. Why were these pictures kept from the public, but the National Archives aggressively went after Trump? I am all for going after wrongdoing. Let’s just make it consistent regardless of party.
Biden reportedly regrets ending re-election campaign and says he’d have defeated Trump
The demented President had a zero percent chance of beating Trump. Dude, ride off into the sunset and hope investigations are not opened into your business dealings with your son. Your pardon saved Hunter, not you.
As I was being vilified for suggesting the lab leak was credible, the President of the US was not being told the truth. Nothing to see here folks.
California's Soros-backed progressive experiment collapses after a decade
I will never understand Soros and his desire to allow criminals to roam free. We are finally seeing the pendulum swing back to rationality in CA on crime policies. Woke DAs are losing elections, and laws are changing to have more direct punishment for crime. CA just voted in favor of Prop 36, seeking to undo portions of Prop 47 from 2014. The vote increases penalties for crime. Prop 36 won with 70% of the vote.
Wait. Is that a rational politician? How did that happen? You mean you don’t want to govern from the retirement home? What a selfless act.
Democrats need to start taking the age issue seriously
Polling shows 79% of Americans support age limits for politicians in Washington. That’s an overwhelming majority in today’s polarized environment.
South Korea impeaches acting President Han Duck-soo, deepening political turmoil
The amount of turmoil in leadership globally is amazing. Canada-Trudeau in trouble, Syria-Assad gone, France-Macron on the ropes, Germany-Scholz in trouble, and turmoil in South Korea.
Middle East
Other Headlines
The economic lookout for 2025 is strong, but there’s still a lot that could go wrong
US oil exports to China dwindle as demand wanes, buying shifts
China’s industrial profits extend decline to a fourth straight month, dropping 7.3% in November
OpenAI says it needs ‘more capital than imagined’ as it lays out for-profit plan
Larry Ellison wraps up banner year as Oracle’s stock rallies most since dot-com boom
NYC cops suffered record-breaking number of injuries in 2024
New York’s Finest suffered a startling 4,600 injuries at the hands of violent suspects in the first nine months of 2024. The frightening figure is 13% higher than the 4,077 officer injuries sustained citywide during the same period in 2023, and a whopping 60% higher than the 2,886 logged at that point in 2021. Bragg must go. Tough on crime is the only option. Leadership matters.
California busts 117 sticky-fingered grinches in organized shoplifting ring
Three boys as young as 12 shot by man they tried to rob at gunpoint on Christmas
Florida homeowner shoots and kills one intruder, injures another
“This is the state of Florida. If you want to break into someone’s home, you should expect to be shot,” Sheriff Wells warned. It’s a slightly different philosophy in TX and FL than in NY or CA.
The guards involved should face consequences and spend time in jail.
How is this possible?
Princeton gender studies program to offer 'sex work,' 'queer spaces' courses
Oxfam audit reveals $41bn missing in World Bank’s climate finance funds
Bird flu virus shows mutations in first severe human case in US, CDC says
The effects of ‘brain rot’: How junk content is damaging our minds
Social media addiction can reduce grey matter, shorten attention spans, weaken memory, and distort core cognitive functions, according to recent research. If true, teens today are toast.
Scientists explore longevity drugs for dogs that could also ‘extend human life’
Where's the egg?: 5 fast-food restaurants that use 'real' whole eggs, 5 that don't
Lying down and vomiting between courses: This is how Ancient Romans would feast
I can relate to these people. Remember, my crazy Bouley story or when I failed you trying to over eat in NYC recently?
The article suggests she earned $103mm thus far and made $2.7mm in 2022 from the song.
We are not alone.
Russia is using Bitcoin in foreign trade, finance minister says
Putin apologizes to Azerbaijan over ‘tragic’ plane crash, but stops short of taking responsibility
Dog Meat Restaurant Owner Dies Just Days After Discovering He Has Rabies
Social Darwinism.
Real Estate
Interesting chart on the growth of inventory in builder spec homes in the USA. More granular details by market would be useful, but you get the general idea. In South Florida, the high-end spec product in good locations continues to move at elevated levels. The new Surf Club building, ready in 2027, just had a unit sell for almost $6,000/ft for $45mm (full-floor). A unit at 300 Biscayne Boulevard (Aston Martin Residences) sold for $24mm - the highest price in the building. Much lower price per foot there than Surf Club. In 2017, they were selling for $1,800ft. Home builder spec homes for sale just hit 2nd highest level ever. Quite the rebound from the shortage experienced from 2012-22. Builders are doing their part to inundate the housing market with supply. The only other time there has been more builder spec inventory was 2008 bubble.
15 major U.S. cities where home prices have risen the most in 2024
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #748 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
