Huffin & Puffing

6-10-26

Jun 10, 2026

Opening Comments

My last note was about the calluses on my fingers after i started to playing guitar again after an extended time off. The most opened links were the five things a cardiologist won’t do before 9 am and the video of the day about Frank Sinatra helping Black people gain access to Miami Beach in the 1960s.

Given the euphoria around the Knicks, I thought this was an interesting chart and along the lines of what I have been writing about regarding prices. Since 1999 — the last time the NY Knicks were in the NBA Finals — the CPI increased 2.0x, the PCE price index is 1.8x higher, and the cost of a beer & hot dog at MSG are up 2.6x (~$9.50 to ~$24.50). Check out the ticket price inflation. I do not believe Trump should have attended the game Monday. His appearance is taking away from the experience for a lot of fans. Many people were looking forward to events that ended up being canceled because of Trump’s visit. Selfish. Then he fell asleep during the game. Come on, man! Knicks fans attacked Spurs fans in a disgusting display after the loss.

I have written about the amazing weather in the mountains in Utah and check out the forecast below. Today, the low was 33 degrees, but note ZERO rain and bright sunshine everyday.

Video of the Day-Middle School Basketball Team’s Response to Bully
Huffin & Puffing
Quick Bites
- Markets
- AI Creating More Founders
- Article Explaining Why Oil is Not Higher
- Florida Orange Industry Woes
- Scott Pelley Interview
Middle East
Politics
Other Headlines
Health
Real Estate
- The Repositioning of 10 Bryant-NYC Class A Office
- 57k Rent Stabilized Units Off Market in NYC
- Growing Demand for Bunkers and Safe Rooms

Video of the Day-Middle School Basketball Team’s Response to Bully

This is a touching story about a girl named Desiree who has Down’s Syndrome and is a cheerleader at a middle school in Wisconsin. During one of the games, someone from the audience kept making fun of her. I do not know what in the hell is wrong with people, but I question the parents of anyone who could bully someone with special needs. One of the basketball players from Desiree’s school went into the stands to confront the bully. The rest of the team joined the one player to confront the bully. One of the players said, “Desiree is our friend and our family, and we will not tolerate this behavior.” The bullying stopped and Desiree and her family were grateful that the team stood up for her. On the heels of the incident, the school held an anti-bullying campaign and changed the name of the gym to D’s house to show Desiree that the team supports her. What a story. Good on the basketball team for sticking up for their friend in need. I want to see more of this.

Huffin & Puffing

Growing up in South Florida means you never think about altitude sickness. I never went skiing as a kid, and we did not vacation in the mountains. My first memory of discussing altitude sickness was for a conference I spoke at in the early 2000s in Telluride. If you recall, I wrote about the worst flight of my life into Telluride for that trip. With an elevation around 9,000 feet, some of the people at the conference felt sick and left early due to the elevation.

Around 2007, I visited clients in Denver and at the time, I was swimming a few times a week. I called up my friend, Steve, who set me up at the Denver Athletic Club for a swim. Mind you, I had been swimming in NYC in a 25-yard pool. I got to the Denver Athletic Club pool, and it was 50 meters at over 5,000 feet in elevation. I dove into the pool to start my swim and did my flip turn at 50 meters. By the time I completed my first lap, I was breathing like a 3-pack-a-day smoker hanging onto the side of the pool. I was embarrassed and upset. One of the very advanced swimmers there saw what happened and said, “Let me guess, you generally train at sea level in a 25-yard pool.” She had seen this movie before. For the first time, I realized how elevation can impact your body while exerting yourself. Eventually, I caught my breath and completed my swim, albeit gingerly and far shorter than my normal mile.

When I got to my condo in Park City last week, I had to unload my car with heavy bags and climb up multiple flights of stairs. I was laughing given I was out of breath. I pride myself on being in excellent shape and was upset that I was huffing and puffing carrying some bags upstairs. The Canyons are at 6,800 feet at the base and that elevation difference from Florida is quite apparent.

I went on a hike doing approximately 1,000 feet of vertical, and my phone rang. I answered it and my friend said, “What are you doing? Are you running a marathon?” I laughed and said, “No, I am going for a walk at over 7,000 feet and can’t catch my breath.” I sounded as though I was asthmatic.

The next day, I went to Salt Lake City (elevation 4,500 ft) to play padel at SLC Padel. I was shocked that the ball actually carried longer than at sea level. I knew this for golf but did not think it would impact such a short shot as in padel. In my first set, I kept hitting shots long, which is the sign of a bad player. I felt I was hitting good shots and kept just barely hitting the wall. I realized it was the altitude talking and started to dial back my shots. If I play in Utah for two months, I am going to be a mess when I get back to the East Coast.

On Monday, I went for a hike with another reader named Dan who worked at JPM among other places. The hike was a bit severe to start and let’s just say, I was a bit worried about getting to the top, but all was well and we took the chair lift down. Lots of fun, but make no mistake, at the steepest points, I was huffing and puffing. It was the first day of clouds and a bit cooler than the past week. I was chilly coming down the lift.

Quick Bites

Sunday night, stocks were slightly weaker and oil was +3.5% given escalations between Iran and Israel. The South Korean stock market was -7%+ and Japan’s Nikkei was -4.6%. However, by the open on Monday, stocks were up, with the Nasdaq and Russell outperforming, as chip stocks rebounded from Friday’s rout and oil prices fell from overnight highs. Treasury yields were up again with the 10-year +3bps to 4.57%, as the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026 have all but disappeared. The S&P and Nasdaq sold off on Tuesday as the chip names were weaker. The iShares Semiconductor EFT was -1.5% after being +6% on Monday. Oil was -3% on Tuesday due to Hormuz traffic increasing, but despite increased tensions with Iran. All eyes on SpaceX IPO on Friday. I find it fully valued based on current sales and believe there will be a better entry point, yet CNBC is reporting it is 4 times oversubscribed. However, the bull case over time based on the Total Addressable Market is notable, as well as Musk at the helm. Given recent inflation data and rate hike fears, gold has dropped 5% in the past week and is -16% in the past few months. Home sales data surged in May (+3.2%), while the median home prices was +1.3% to $428.3k. On Wednesday, stocks sold off 1.5-2% due to the escalations in the Middle East coupled with Trump’s comments that “Iran has taken too long negotiating.” He also pledged more strikes. Oil was +2.5% on Wednesday. May consumer prices were +5% and in line with estimates. However, on an annual basis, inflation hit 4.2%, the highest in three years. Treasury yields were unchanged with the 10-year at 4.53%.
I have written about AI-related job disintermediation as well as efficiencies due to the technology. This Apollo post by Torsten Slok outlines the booming number of solo founders due to AI. Startup formation has surged in recent years, with solo founders driving nearly all of that growth, suggesting AI tools may be making it dramatically easier for individuals to launch businesses on their own. If even a fraction of these firms scale, the employment implications could be significant. It is Jevons paradox in real time.
- Given the war in the Middle East, oil production has been cut, while millions of barrels per day are now longer able to get through the Strait of Hormuz. This Bloomberg article outlines why oil is not at $200/barrel due to the disruptions. A combination of record US exports, a sharp and unexpected slowdown in Chinese demand and a steady trickle of crude still finding its way through the strait has helped absorb much of the shock from the loss of more than 10 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern supply. A pre-war surplus has also eased the blow. All eyes now are on how long those buffers can hold, while the question of when flows might resume through the strait, and where oil prices are headed, have become the biggest wild cards for the global economy. The article goes into detail on each of the reasons above. For example, China has reduced imports of oil by almost 40%. I remain concerned that oil can go much higher if production remains offline and the Strait remains largely closed. For example, middle distillate (diesel and jet fuel) levels on the West Coast are drying up. This can lead to a substantial shock to prices. I have a reader who ran the commodity business at major banks as well as a hedge fund. This was his take: The Bloomberg article is backwards looking. We are exhausting every countermeasure we have right now. We are draining SPR’s and commercial inventories at a pace that was unimaginable prior to this conflict. We are quickly dropping to operational minimums and once that happens, the shock absorber disappears. Even if peace broke out tomorrow, we still have a major restocking that will be required and it will take several years to do (assuming that all the production can come back online in a timely manner and that ships operate perfectly efficiently). According to CNBC, Trump says they were ever to sneak out 100mm barrels out of the Strait of Hormuz which is also contributing to lower than expected oil.
I knew the Florida orange industry was struggling, but I did not know the extent that is outlined in this article. Florida harvested a record 244 million boxes of oranges during the 1997–1998 season. This year, the Department of Agriculture estimates that Florida will produce only 12.2 million boxes, a stunning 95% drop in a little less than 30 years. Occasional freezes, catastrophic hurricanes, and an on-and-off, decades-long battle with the citrus canker disease proved to be frustrating setbacks for many orange growers, but the destruction of Florida’s citrus industry kicked into high gear in 2005. That was the year an invasive insect from China—which made its way to the United States through Mexico—introduced a disease that would ultimately decimate Florida’s citrus industry. As an aside, Claude made this chart for me in 12 seconds. I added the picture of the oranges.
Over many decades, I was a devout fan of the TV show, “60 Minutes.” For a host of reasons, most notably horrible bias, I have not watched it regularly in recent years. With new management at CBS, there have been some major shakeups. Bari Weiss as the new Editor-in-Chief of CBS News. Weiss fired Tanya Simon who was running the show and had been involved with 60 Minutes for three decades. The new person in charge of the show is Nick Bilton, and many of the staff were upset over the firings and lack of communication. Scott Pelley was with CBS News for 37 years and was fired for his harsh criticisms of Weiss, Bilton, and the way they handled matters. I felt Pelley came across as genuine in the NY Times interview despite my belief that 60 Minutes had become too biased in favor of the Left. I felt Lulu Garcia-Navarro did a good job of asking direct questions of Pelley. Pelley outlined numerous allegations, that if true would raise serious concerns about Weiss and new leadership.

Real Estate

In September 2023, I interviewed the cast of Billions at a real estate event marking the rebranding of 10 Bryant Park. The event came on the heels of the pandemic, rising inflation and interest rates, and the widespread mantra that Work From Home was the new standard — rendering office buildings, in the minds of many, obsolete. At the time, the office market was in a death spiral, and the prospects for 10 Bryant Park, like many office buildings across the country, looked dire. My good friend Eli Elefant, CEO of the entity that controls the building, was the brilliant investor-operator who saw through it all. After losing HSBC, which occupied roughly 65% of the building, Eli was the mastermind and macro thinker behind what became a masterful turnaround. In the heart of it all, he also orchestrated a unique refinancing structure that helped stabilize the asset and position it for the next phase of growth. He then led a full-scale rebranding and repositioning of the building, transforming a deeply challenged office tower into one of the premier Class A buildings in New York City. Amazon ultimately replaced HSBC and now accounts for approximately half of the 860,000-square-foot building. Baker McKenzie recently expanded within the asset to approximately 120,000 square feet for 15 years at record-breaking rents. Life Time Fitness anchors the building’s amenity and wellness offering, and the balance of the building is largely occupied by hedge funds, private equity firms, and other high-quality tenants. In the depths of the market, rents were being quoted in the $60 to $70 per square foot range, while offers for the building were in the $400 million to $500 million range and barely covered the debt. Today, after approximately $100 million of investment in a new lobby, roof terrace, amenities, and a best-in-class tenant roster with long-term leases, the building’s value has effectively doubled. Rents are now in the $150-plus range, and the building has zero vacancy. As much as I would like to take 100% of the credit for my masterful interview in front of many of the major players in the New York City real estate market, the truth is that Eli did an extraordinary job. His vision and execution turned a deeply challenged asset into one of the clearest examples of the recovery of the New York City Class A office market. This WSJ article outlines that Manhattan’s office market is poised for its best year since 2000 and AI companies are playing a big role.
I have written extensively about my views against the idiotic 2019 rent laws in NYC. They prevent landlords from raising rents even if they do work to improve the unit after the tenant moves out. Why would you make an investment and not be able to make a return on it? The result is tens of thousands of apartments have come off market despite the fact that NYC is in desperate need of affordable units. Remember, when you lease a unit in a rent stabilized building to a tenant, you are stuck with them for life. As a result of the hope that rationality may prevail, landlords have taken inventory off market.
Interesting Telegraph article about the growing demand for panic rooms and bunkers for wealthy homeowners. Not so long ago, most of Paul Weldon’s clients wanted protection from home invaders. Now, they are asking about “dirty bombs.” The UK-based bunker specialist has spent 16 years designing panic rooms and underground shelters, but he notes that the nature of the fears driving demand has changed dramatically in recent years. For Weldon, the founder of The Panic Room Company, the Covid-19 pandemic first shattered assumptions about how drastically everyday life could be disrupted. Then came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The conflict in the Middle East has prompted another surge of inquiries this year. Where Weldon’s company previously received four or five inquiries a month, that figure has risen to around 10. “Since the Iran war, we’ve doubled,” he says.

© 2026 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #896 ©Copyright 2026 Written By Eric Rosen.