Opening Comments
My last note was about an awful hotel experience in Massachusetts that resulted in an unexpected exfoliation of my skin. The most opened links were the video of the manicure robot and five tips to survive a heart attack.
Happy Fourth of July. The United States of America is 249 years old. Although there are many issues we face as a country, I am convinced it is the best place in the world. What would the Founding Fathers think of the state of the US and the world today?
My good friend Max Greyserman came in T#2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last weekend after finished tied for the lead at -22. The playoff was exciting, and Max lost to a birdie on the 5th hole. He is now set to play in Europe and will be in his 4th major of the year sitting at 48th in the FedEx Cup and # 32 in the world rankings. Max has now had four 2nd place finishes on the PGA Tour in 11 months. He is knocking on the door of his first PGA Tour win. If you recall, I strongly suggested corporations sponsor Max. He handles himself like a gentleman and unlike many other Tour players, he always meets for interviews and shares a positive outlook. He was raised right.
Jack and I are heading to Saucon Valley Country Club in PA from Friday to Sunday to play golf. It is nearly 1,000 acres, three championship courses, gyms, tennis, restaurants, fly fishing, basketball, racquetball, pools… The facility is world class. If it was in the Hamptons, it would be $2.5mm to join and $75k/year and be full in a week. Sunday evening through Wednesday, we are back in NYC.
Markets
Wealth Divide
Deficit & Debt Charts
Britan Losing Millionaires
TSLA IPO was 15 years ago
Luxury Real Estate Market Data
Florida Older Condo Pain
Decline in 1st Time Home Buyers
Pictures of the Day-Matsunori Omakase
Jack and I ate at the Lower East Side omakase restaurant Matsunori and were not blow away. Everything was fine but sadly nothing dazzled at the $98/person 12-course restaurant on Allen Street. The sushi choices were largely boring. To be fair, the last two omakase restaurants we ate at were Michelin Star (Nakazawa and Noz 17), but Matsunori fell short of even lowered expectations. The staff was friendly, and we enjoyed the conversation with the other patrons. The music choices were great with Fleetwood Mac, Notorious BIG, and Train playing in the background. The 10-seat sushi bar is quaint but does nothing to differentiate itself in a town of great sushi. If you want value omakase, go to Fuku. Both allow BYOB but Fuku blows away Matsunori at a lower price point.
Food 6.9
Ambiance-7.1
Cost-$98/person 12-courses-Not value for quality
BYOB
NYC Parking, Minus the Rage
Anytime you are in NYC with a car, it is a bit of a disaster. Finding street parking is frustrating and time consuming. Even if you find a space, it is not for long given the meters and street cleaning. I was a valet parking attendant as a kid and believe my parallel parking skills are a 9.7 out of 10. This picture was after my first attempt and shared in a note from 2022 that also includes a great restaurant review. Literally 1.5” on each side of my rental car.
When I lived in NYC, I paid $1,000/month for parking, and that was eight years ago. When I come visit with a rental car for a few days, you can literally pay $100/day to park in a garage. Gerry, a longtime friend and reader told me about SpotHero, an app that helps you locate parking nearby your location at a discount. There are other apps including ParkWhiz, BestPark and others as well.
You put in your location or where you are going into the app, as well as the start and stop time of the parking requirement. In one second, all the area garages come up with prices and they are a FRACTION of the price you would be charged if you just drove up to the parking garage.
Last week, I put my location into the app and a garage three blocks from me came up for $107 from June 16th at 3 pm until June 19th at 9 am. This price includes all taxes and fees. You pay with ApplePay, only giving the garage attendant the tip when you pick up your car. The stated rate in that same garage is $67.58 for 24 hours + sales tax of 18.375% and a service fee of 5%. which would total $250.89. That is a savings of 57% and is by far the cheapest option. Some garages would have been well over $300.
There is a downside. You cannot take your car out during your stay. If you need your car, only put in the initial time and then do it again after you use it. If you take out your car, you need to start a new ticket.
If you are parking around NYC or any big city for that matter, check out SpotHero, as it is very easy to use and consistently saves 50-65% off the cheapest stated rates.
Quick Bites
Stocks rose slightly on Wednesday after Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam. Good WSJ article about the market rally moving beyond big tech. The US Dollar is off to the worst start of the year since 1973. After peaking in January at 110 on the US Dollar Index, it has since fallen down to a low on Monday of 96.4, a level not seen since 2022. Although the 10-year Treasury is largely unchanged on the week (4.29%), the trend is down. Two months ago, the 30-year Treasury yield was 5.09% and it is now 4.83% bringing mortgage rates down (see chart). ADP jobs report came out Friday showing a loss of 33k jobs relative to expectations of 100k. Lots of noise in this data.
The growing wealth divide in the US is a major issue. This WSJ article, “They’re in the Top 10% of Earners. They Still Don’t Feel Rich,” suggests earning $250k does not take you so far anymore. American households that make about $250,000 or more are typically considered to be in the top 10% of earners. Many in that bracket realize that the number sounds huge—and by many measures, affluent Americans are indeed thriving. Yet the top-line figures can mask a sense of financial fragility in many high-earning families. Years of soaring costs for housing, college, insurance and borrowing feel oppressive, even for those with hefty paychecks. They might be sitting on a mountain of home-equity gains, but that doesn’t provide a huge sense of security when companies are getting rid of white-collar workers and it’s the rare employer that offers a guaranteed pension.
It isn’t that families making $250,000 feel poor—many make much more than their parents ever did, or much more than they themselves ever thought they would. It’s just that they don’t feel rich, either. When you look at the cost of living, which has exploded in recent years, especially on housing, your money does not go nearly as far as it once did.
I have been consistently critical of the deficits and growing Federal debt load. These charts from Torsten Slok at Apollo only add to my concerns. Examining Treasury auction metrics across the curve reveals no signs of weakness in demand for US Treasuries at present. Bid-to-cover ratios are stable, and there is no evidence of auctions systematically tailing, see the charts below. These charts, however, offer little comfort when considering the rising trend in debt-to-GDP, the increasing term premium, the falling dollar, and the $9 trillion that the US government needs to refinance over the next 12 months, see the following four charts below. In particular, debt-servicing costs are rising rapidly, and the US government currently pays a record-high $3.3 billion in interest payments every day, and for every dollar the US government collects in tax revenue, about 20 cents go to paying interest on debt. With debt levels growing much faster than GDP, the bottom line is that Treasury issuance will continue to grow faster than the economy, and the most likely outcome is that investors will demand compensation in the form of higher long-term interest rates. The charts continue to suggest to me that we need to be more aggressive in cutting deficits and being more fiscally responsible as a nation. We continue to pay the price for the failure of Yellen as the Treasury Secretary during COVID. She could have refinanced TRILLIONS in Treasury debt at sub 1%, and given her and Powell’s “transitory” view, she did not properly do her job. The end result will be TRILLIONS in additional interest expense paid for by the US taxpayer over the next 10 years. Remember, in 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 32bps and Yellen could have refinanced trillions at 1%.
Britain on track to lose 'unprecedented' 16,500 millionaires in 2025 amid high taxes and non-dom crackdown. Britain is on track to lose a record 16,500 millionaires this year amid rising taxes and a crackdown on non-dom residents, a report suggests. The exodus is part of a “historic wave of wealth migration”, with numerous countries competing with the UK for capital. According to the latest Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, around 142,000 millionaires worldwide will relocate to a new country this year. The migration consultancy’s study, which analyses trends among people with liquid assets of more than $1 million (£740,000), predicts that Britain will lose twice as many high net worth individuals as China and ten times as many as Russia in 2025.
Tesla’s IPO was 15 years ago, and it went public at $17/share or the equivalent of $1.13 today. Given the price is $312/share now, if you invested $100k in the IPO, you would have $27.6mm today. If you sold at the peak in December, you would have $43.2mm. Being right and buying in the IPO does not guarantee success. Tesla stock has gone through massive periods of volatility. Holding it for 15 years would have required a level of discipline and conviction that most investors simply don’t have.
Tariffs
Canada rescinds digital services tax after Trump cuts off U.S. trade talks
This is a win for Trump.
Trump announces Vietnam trade deal, 20% tariff on its imports to U.S.
Politics
Senate Republicans narrowly pass Trump megabill after marathon voting session
The revised package now heads back to the House, where Republican leaders hope to approve it and send it to Trump before a self-imposed July 4 deadline. But it faces hurdles.
Musk shreds Trump’s tax bill as ‘DEBT SLAVERY,’ vows to unseat Republicans who back it
The Trump tensions sent TSLA -5% on Tuesday.
Sen. Thom Tillis says he won’t seek re-election after opposing Trump megabill
I doubt I will ever own property in NYC again. You cannot be a landlord, and now the proposals are for me to pay higher taxes based on my address and color of my skin? Anyone with means in NYC should exit. Come to sunny Florida where I have lived for eight glorious years.
Zohran Mamdani says ‘I don’t think we should have billionaires’
NYC is home to 123 billionaires worth a total of $759bn, making it the city with the highest concentration of billionaires globally. Rich people, you are hated in NYC. I will help you move down to Florida, find you a house, school, golf course, and friend group. Mamdani does not like you or want you around. Let’s see how much damage we can do to the NYC budget by having more wealth leave the city, leaving Zohran less money to pay for his awful policies. The wealthy have options. With Mamdani in office, NYC will deteriorate until the constituents realize policies matter.
When asked if he likes capitalism, he said, “No. I have many critiques of capitalism.” He is running for mayor of the most capitalistic driven city in the world. "I think ultimately, the definition for me, of why I call myself a democratic socialist, is the words of Dr. King decades ago. He said, 'Call it democracy or call it democratic socialism; there must be a better distribution of wealth for all of God's children in this country.'"
Philadelphia, Minneapolis and Denver experienced 28-59% drop in homicides after boosting law enforcement budgets. Wait. Defunding the police was ineffective? Who would have thought that having less police would make matters worse? Yes. Sarcasm.
American Pride Slips to New Low
Pride among Democrats tumbles, while independents also hit new low, more than offsetting increase among Republicans.
Trump Wants to Expand Nuclear Power. It Won’t Be Easy.
Trump Publishes Scathing Handwritten Note He Sent Jerome Powell - Complete with a Helpful Chart
I am no fan of Powell. He was a disaster during the pandemic and called the inflation issue “transitory.” However, I agree with him now that rates should not be cut at this point.
I agree. Biological men competing against women is absurd.
Ukraine says Russia launched the biggest aerial attack since start of the war
Women can be drafted into the Danish military as Russian aggression and military investment grow
Middle East
UN Nuclear Watchdog Humiliates Trump With Brutal Iran Assessment
Rafael Grossi said American B-2 bombers did not cause total damage—or “completely and totally obliterate,” as Trump said—to the Iranian nuclear program. Instead, he estimates Tehran can restart enriching uranium again “in a matter of months.”
Shaken by depth of Israeli penetration, Iran to launch sweeping crackdown
Israel orders evacuations in northern Gaza as Trump calls for war to end
I do not agree with any of this candidate’s policies. However, he is one articulate candidate. He explains away why he won’t condemn the phrase.
Boca Raton mayor woos NYC capitalists after socialist Mamdani’s victory: ‘Better quality of life’
The mayor of Boca is an impressive Harvard grad and Georgetown law. I can see him doing more politically.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: Bo French should resign as Tarrant GOP chair over ‘bigotry’
French posed the question on X: Were Jews or Muslims the “bigger threat to America?”
Top Iranian cleric issues 'fatwa' against Trump, Netanyahu
Religious decree follows 12-day conflict where Trump-backed operations damaged Iran's nuclear capabilities.
Syrian teen charged in failed terror attack on Taylor Swift concert
Other Headlines
Top economist sends sobering tariff, interest rate forecast
As of this writing, we see the Federal Reserve cutting rates only once in 2025, with a year-end fed funds-rate target range of 4.00% to 4.25%. Slok is the chief economist at Apollo. In my January 1st note, I called for only 1 or 2 rate cuts in 2025. Of my 12 predictions, 7 have been proven true thus far. Pretty solid. (Trump/Musk fall out, one or two rate cuts in 2025, DOGE cuts won’t come close to $2 trillion, Middle East tensions die down, America and Israel take out Iranian nukes, Trump will not deport nearly the number of illegals as suggested, and DEI will no longer be the hot topic). I think I will be proven right on a couple more by year end as well. I got close on my $50 oil call for 2025 as it hit $55 in May.
Tesla reports 14% decline in vehicle deliveries, marking second straight year-over-year drop
Oracle stock jumps after $30 billion annual cloud deal revealed in filing
Trump says he has group of ‘very wealthy people’ ready to buy TikTok
I hope the kid loses his diploma. No chance I would EVER hire this idiot. He cheated and bragged about it.
The pictures are awful. Leadership matters. Policies matter.
Bryan Kohberger to plead guilty to University of Idaho student murders to avoid death penalty
Dude scares the crap out of me.
Sean 'Diddy' Combs verdict live updates: Jury convicts Combs of 2 counts in sex trafficking trial
'Most Peaceful Country' Report Lists Ukraine, Russia Last: See Who Is First
"The world has become less peaceful over the past 17 years, with the average country score deteriorating by 5.4 per cent since the index's inception in 2008.
The wild scenario in which Caitlin Clark could be able to start her own league
Clark has saved the league and should seriously consider breaking off. It would be devastating to the WNBA.
Lots of articles on how AI robots will become more regular companions for people over time. "As AI and robotics have advanced, many are turning to intelligent companions to fulfill emotional and social needs without the complexities of traditional relationships.
Inside the Hamptons’ Elite Fitness Scene—Complete with Cartier Bracelets and Lamborghinis
Controversy Erupts As Scientists Start Work To Create Artificial Human DNA
Health
I’m a neurosurgeon — do these 3 things right now to prevent back pain
I’m 79 years old and the ‘father of functional medicine’: Here’s my daily routine for a healthy life
The #1 Vegetable to Eat More Of to Reduce Visceral Fat, According to Dietitians
Visceral fat is the type of fat that lies deep in the abdomen and around the middle of the body. It’s linked to a long list of chronic health conditions like type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome and cancer.
Lifestyle habits like exercise, sleep and stress management can play a key role in the amount of visceral fat your body accumulates. I get visceral fat tested annually with a Dexa Scan and am generally 50% of the amount standard for my age.
Doctors And Nurses Are Revealing The "Small" Health Signs You Should Never Ignore, And It's Shocking
Powerful pill can reveal what’s going on in your gut — thanks to miniature sensors
Heart surgeon weighs in on marijuana and heart disease risk
“If you can avoid smoking—whether it’s marijuana or tobacco—it will improve your outcomes," surgeon says.
Real Estate
A lot of information in the CNBC article entitled, “Here’s how the luxury real estate market is splitting up.” Economic uncertainty is creating a divide in the luxury real estate market between ultra-rich buyers and the merely wealthy, according to a new report from brokerage Coldwell Banker. A survey of some 200 agents specializing in luxury property found that ultra-wealthy buyers, defined as individuals worth at least $30 million, are still making big-ticket purchases despite trade war and recession fears. They are also driving a substantial rise in all-cash offers. Meanwhile, affluent but less wealthy buyers are more sensitive to interest rates and are acting more cautiously, according to the report. Just over half of the surveyed agents said they had seen a slight or substantial increase in cash purchases by clients in 2025. Only 3.9% reported a decrease in those buyers in the first five months of 2025, while 45.4% said cash purchases had held steady, according to the report. That said, while luxury home sales rose overall in the first five months of 2025, they took a hit in May, the first full month after April’s stock market dip. The report, citing data from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, said luxury single-family home sales dipped 4.7% year over year while attached property sales plummeted by 21.1%. Agents are also seeing more clients reduce list prices in 2025 compared to recent years, according to Waugh. The median sold prices for luxury single-family and luxury-attached properties currently stand at $1.7 million and $1.25 million, respectively, according to the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing.
Florida's condo market has become a nightmare for many residents trying to sell. The Sunshine State's retirees who flocked there for affordable condos now find themselves stuck with old properties worth virtually nothing that they are desperate to escape. Pending mandatory repairs and rising HOA fees on aging towers have driven owners to list in a flooded market. The Sunshine State's retirees who flocked there for affordable condos now find themselves stuck with old properties worth virtually nothing that they are desperate to escape. Instead, most are opting for newer builds, which come with modern storm protections, amenities and HOA fees that won't skyrocket any time soon. The dramatic shift comes after a new Florida law — passed in response to the deadly 2021 Surfside collapse that killed 98 people — imposed strict inspection and funding requirements for aging buildings. Condo associations must now conduct structural safety assessments and collect hefty reserve funds for future repairs. Pending mandatory repairs and rising HOA fees on aging towers have driven owners to list in a flooded market. It would be very challenging for me to consider an older condo today.
I saw this chart on Torsten Slok’s Daily Spark and added commentary to it around the decline in 1st time home buyers over the past 15 years.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #798 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
