Power of the Rosen Report-Making Connections
6-5-24
Opening Comments
My last note was entitled “What I Miss About NYC Part II” and I outlined my short stint in the Big Apple. The most opened links were the video of the judge in shock when a man with a suspended license calls into court WHILE DRIVING A CAR and the link to the two-year-old artist selling work for $7,000. The driving video is hysterical but it turns out there was a clerical error and the man’s license was no longer suspended.
I received a lot of calls and emails about my JPM alumni event in NYC last week. I feel Jamie and his team do an amazing job of bringing people together and creating a culture that you are proud of as an employee. I look forward to my annual event and enjoy reconnecting with my former colleagues. A former Bloomberg employee, Ted Merz, wrote a positive piece after reading my comments about the JPM event and I was quoted in it.
Amazing Day Today
I am back in NYC for a bit and today was and will be fantastic. It started with me at 5:30 am in the gym before heading to Bloomberg to go onto the Tom Keene Show,
” Surveillance.” It was my first time doing something like this and I had a blast. Tom and Damian Sassower were incredibly thoughtful and welcoming. Thanks guys. The show also led to a flurry of new subscribers within minutes. I then had lunch with a reader (great guy) at “Fish Cheeks” in the Village. I went to the offices of 3i Members to get some work done for a few hours and publish my latest newsletter. Tonight, I have two dinners. One with Oppenheimer (Alon Rosin) and a bunch of hedge fund managers at Fogo de Chao in Midtown and then I am eating my second dinner at the world-famous restaurant, Rao’s in Harlem. It is among the hardest tables to get in America. It was my first full day in NYC and if today’s eating indicates the summer, I will need a plastic surgeon for a tummy tuck. I think I will eat 6,000 calories today and will have reviews. Tuesday night I ate at the Noz Market stand up sushi handroll bar and it was solid. More to come.
PGA Tour Rookie and loyal RR reader, Max Greyserman, shot -11 over two rounds to tie for first in the US Open Qualifier in NJ Monday to get into another US Open at Pinehurst #2 June 13-16. Congrats bud. Learn about how Max got lucky and beat me in a putting contest. Yes, I need a rematch. It won’t happen again.
Markets
GME At It Again
Caitlin Clark Hate
Damning Evidence About the Covid Cover-Up
NYC Residents Want Out
CA Migration Continues
Another $40mm Miami Condo Sale
150k Applications for Section 8 NYC Housing in 12 Hours
Picture of the Day-Homemade Bolognese
I cook a lot and recently made a ton of Bolognese in the Northern Italian style. Northern Italian is less tomato-forward (this recipe uses tomato paste only with no tomatoes). It is veal, pork, pancetta, garlic, shallots, celery, carrots, heavy cream, white wine, tomato paste… that cooks for over 4 hours. It is a derivative of a Mario Batali recipe. I freeze the extra and use it when I am in a pinch. Recently, I made it with homemade breadcrumbs. One secret is to save pasta water after you drain the pasta and put a couple of tablespoons back over the pasta before serving. The breadcrumbs added some texture and should be sprinkled after you add the pasta water.
The Power of the Rosen Report-Making Connections
What started as an email in February of 2020 has become something I never envisioned. I wrote my first Rosen Report to 18 friends. I am read in 50 states and 97 countries by business leaders, founders, hedge fund managers, C-Suite professionals, Real Estate families, Private Equity and Venture CIOs, bankers, traders, research analysts and countless other Wall Street types. What started as a note followed by affluent business folks has started branching out to a broader base and I am now followed by many college students, young professionals, and others.
I mentored almost 100 students/young professionals in the past year. I have tried to assist them in their professional endeavors in some way and will outline some examples of the power of the RR. I never charge for my time but feel I have positively influenced outcomes and am proud to help people find their way professionally.
As a child, I was not raised around successful business leaders but a young stockbroker named, Rick, allowed me to intern at Smith Barney when I was 14 years old. I learned about markets, something I was passionate about at a young age. I will never forget Rick’s advice about taking a long-term view of your career (it’s a marathon, not a sprint). My internship helped drive my desire to be in the markets for a living. Since then, I have always tried to pay it forward.
I have been informally mentoring people for over 20 years and always went out of my way to point things out to young professionals on how to improve and succeed. I have taught at numerous colleges and universities, given keynote speeches, and tried to have a positive impact by outlining what is in the art of possible and the feedback has been amazing. Below are a few examples, but I have hundreds like this over the years.
A couple of years ago, a young man, Danny, emailed me for assistance. It turned out his mother and I went to high school together but had not spoken since. Danny’s parents are a teacher and a fireman. He was looking for advice on how to land business roles and needed someone with experience to help. I tried to spend time with Danny to help improve his resume, interview preparation, and career advice. About a month ago, he called to tell me he was unhappy with his job and needed a change. He was not intellectually stimulated and wanted to get into real estate. I told him I would make introductions and asked a long-time reader, John, to speak with Danny. John is a senior R/E professional who is connected and has offered to help me mentor candidates. After speaking with John, Danny called to thank me because through John’s connections, he got a job. What is Even better? The job is with another Rosen Report reader. Yes, the Rosen Report is a great connector.
In another story, a young man called about changing his career and was interested in Foreign Exchange. I called my friend who was extremely knowledgeable in FX at JPM and asked if he would help mentor the young man. They had a conversation that prepared the candidate for an interview, and he got the job and is crushing it. He called and said, “Eric, because of your help and connecting me with Alex, I was prepared for a job interview and got the job.”
A couple of years ago, a finance professor called me about something I wrote in a Rosen Report and mentioned his son, Ford, was getting his master’s degree from Duke and wanted a job in markets. I told him to have his Ford reach out to me. After a few calls with him to help improve his resume and prepare him for interviews, I called my dear friend, Alon, who runs the equity options desk at Oppenheimer. Alon agreed to speak with Ford and ended up hiring him on his options desk.
Another young man, Charlie, has turned out to be one heck of a go-getter. He has been calling me a lot to prepare for interviews, so I gave Charlie mock interviews and help him hone his pitch to be differentiated. Just last week he told me he got a summer internship at a world-class asset manager in NYC that manages over $60bn in assets. I am very proud of how he was able to fight his way into a role for the summer.
I have dozens of these stories, but am getting more requests for mentoring assistance, and am short on time. I have a list of 15 readers who have generously offered to help me mentor these kids so we can keep the connections and advice going. If you have an interest in mentoring, send me an email with Mentor in the subject to rosenreport@gmail.com and tell me your expertise and contact info. I believe in giving back and take pride in assisting the next generation.
Quick Bites
Stocks fell Monday after weak U.S. manufacturing data raised concerns about the strength of the economy. The U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of slowing, with the ISM manufacturing index measuring 48.7 in May, sending Treasury yields lower. A reading below 50 is an indication of a contraction. Also, JOLTS job openings fell suggesting weaker demand for workers. The ADP report showed weaker payrolls as growth slowed to 152k (175k consensus). Treasury yields fell on the weaker economic data with the 2-year down to 4.72%. Remember it was 5% last week. The 10-year hit 4.62% last week and is now 4.29%. However, Wednesday, stocks rallied on hopes of rate cuts and Nvidia hitting a new record. Nvidia market cap passed $3 trillion at one point today. Crude oil has been under pressure and erased most of the gains for the year after OPEC laid out plans to phase out production cuts starting in October. Oil is now trading at $74/barrel after hitting $88 in early April.
The Meme craze is back in full force as “Roaring Kitty” posted that he owned $116mm in GME stock and 120,000 call options with a $20 strike price. Check out this CNBC story about Roaring Kitty and his net worth. At one point on Monday, the stock’s market cap was $12bn. GME traded as high as 185 times EBITDA Monday morning before settling in at a cool 140 times EBITDA. Year-over-year revenue for GME was -19% as of Jan 2024 (reports next week). For perspective, the hottest stock on the planet, NVIDIA is growing like a weed (Sales +265% year over year) and is crucial for all AI companies and trades at 55 times EBITDA or 53 times EV/EBITDA. We know how this ends. In 1999, I vividly recall all kinds of companies changing their name to have .com in them during the internet boom. When they changed their names to .com, the stocks flew higher in price. Look at the 2nd chart to see how that ended. The Nasdaq went from 5,048 in March 2000 to 1,114 in October 2002 or -78% in 19 months. At the peak, the Nasdaq traded at a Price/Earnings multiple of 200 times at the peak and has a PE of 31 times today. Markets can remain irrational for a while, not forever.
There sure are a lot of Caitlin Clark haters and shockingly, many are in the WNBA, including the officials. Good article entitled, “ WNBA has been a 'failure' until Caitlin Clark, the league would be 'suicidal' to not protect most valuable asset.“ For 20 years, my cumulative time watching the WNBA or Women’s NCAA basketball was less than one hour. In the past 14 months, I have watched over 40 hours. The reason is almost unanimously Caitlin Clark. In this year’s women’s NCAA final (18.9mm viewers), the ratings were HIGHER than the men (14.8mm viewers) for the 1st time ever. Why? Caitlin Clark is the single biggest reason after setting the NCAA scoring record that stood for over 50 years. Stadiums are being sold out to the point that they are moving games to NBA stadiums to accommodate the crowds for Clark. These are good things. The NBA brings in $10bn a year in revenue and the WBNA only $200mm. I do not believe the WNBA has ever been profitable. Clark brings fans to the stadium, jersey sales, eyeballs on TV, ad revenues, and lucrative sponsorships. Do you think it is a coincidence that the WNBA has moved to charted flights just days after Caitlin joined the league? She should be hugged and thanked by her peers, as eyeballs equal money. Instead, Caitlin is getting thrown around and the officials don’t seem to care. Do not hate her, help her. If even she does not turn out to be the greatest player ever, she is having an outsized impact on the game. The way she is treated is ridiculous and in a recent game, the officials did not call a clear flagrant foul on Clark. After the fact the league did and fined the player. View it for yourself. Of note, Angel Reece, the LSU superstar, cheered when Caitlin was knocked down. Yes, play her tough. Block her shot. Trash talk all you want. Do not intentionally play dirty to the woman bringing so much attention to what has been a historically boring game. Yes, Candice Parker had some “rookie” hazing too, but Caitlin is changing the economics of the game at a different level. Instead of hating, embrace the fact that more fans are watching and bringing sponsors with them. I am a fan of Dick Vitale and he agrees with me. I hate to think what would happen if Caitlin was injured due to a dirty foul.
I called the origin of the pandemic to be a lab leak early and was canceled for it. I suggested that Fauci retire early and for that, I received hate mail. Many impressive doctors and scientists were canceled for raising concerns about Fauci, the NIH, the origins of the pandemic, treatments, and policies around the crisis. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Google were blocking anything that went against the corrupt narrative out of D.C. Former head of the CDC, Dr. Redfield, claimed he was cut out of the early discussions on the virus origins because he suspected a lab leak. Well, more information has come out it is not pretty. The All-In Podcast tackles this issue and goes into great detail with amazing excerpts from the Congressional investigation. I strongly suggest you watch and I have set the video to start at the point of the discussion on the topic. Even the leftmost All-In hosts believe this is corruption. Senior NIH officials were trying to circumvent a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) search and it is CRYSTAL clear to me there was nefarious activity. It has also become clear that Fauci was involved based on the email traffic despite his testimony this week. Senior NIH officials admitted via email they were trying to circumvent FOIA searches and purposely deleted important emails. There was a “FOIA lady” at the NIH who was training senior people how to hide and delete information to avoid the reach of the FOIA. This is stunning from NIH official, Dr. Morens. “I learned from our FOIA lady how to make emails disappear.” The idiot sent this in an email. Many NIH officials purposely misspelled names to try to avoid FOIA searches. These allegations are devastating given the ramifications of the lies and deceit. Trillions of debt, unnecessary deaths, canceled school, lockdowns, the reputations of many acclaimed doctors and scientists were tarnished… If all this is not bad enough, it turns out NIH and its scientists were paid $710mm in royalties from drug makers. When in doubt, FOLLOW THE MONEY! The government failed us and did not follow the science.
Israel/Middle East
Netanyahu aide says Israel agreed to Biden’s cease-fire plan for Gaza
An aide to Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel had agreed to the framework for President Joe Biden’s plan to bring an end to the war in Gaza, though he said it was “not a good deal.”
Netanyahu’s coalition allies threaten to quit government if he accepts Biden’s truce
Fires rage overnight across north after Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks
Public Opinion Poll from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
This is a thorough survey on numerous topics including the deteriorating conditions in Gaza. Everyone should check out the link. My concern was the view of residents in Gaza and the West Bank concerning Oct 7th as seen below. Over 70% of those polled believe the October 7th offensive was correct. Dozens of charts in the link.
4 hostages, including British Israeli man, murdered in Hamas captivity in Gaza, Israel says
University of Chicago students walk out of commencement, clash with police in anti-Israel protest
Columbia University alumnus snubs alma mater, donates $260M to Israeli university
Great, I hope Columbia goes bankrupt.
Antisemitic attacker calls NYC rabbi ‘dirty Jew,’ bashes him with bag outside synagogue
Maldives will ban Israelis from entering the country over the war in Gaza
I have been to the Maldives. Dan Loeb took me on a surf trip in 2010. It was amazingly beautiful with great waves. Not sure I would travel that far again, especially since they hate Israel.
Other Headlines
Gold is finally being re-introduced into the international financial system, especially in the east
China has halved its US Treasury holdings and tripled gold holdings since 2012.
BlackRock, Citadel Securities-backed TXSE Group to start Texas Stock Exchange
Morgan Stanley, Ares Say Private Equity Investors Want Cash Back
Nvidia announces new AI chips months after latest launch as market competition heats up (stock +2% despite broader market weakness)
Intel unveils new AI chips as it seeks to reclaim market share from Nvidia and AMD
Elon Musk ordered Nvidia to ship thousands of AI chips reserved for Tesla to X and xAI
Ex-Millennium Trader Megia Debuts Hedge Fund With $5 Billion
Millennium invested $3bn. The fund invests in macro, fixed-income relative value and inflation-risk trading according to Bloomberg.
The $21 Billion Lawsuit That Could Break the NFL
I had never heard of this suit over access to out of market games. Interesting read.
Trump Campaign Raises Staggering $200 Million Since Thursday Conviction
I have no problem if Trump is found guilty of Obstruction of Justice in the documents case. I do have a problem with this ridiculous guilty verdict on payments to a porn star and the fundraising is telling us something. Listen to this short discussion on $200mm raised with many small donations and first-time donors. The $200mm was as of Sunday.
Behind Closed Doors, Biden Shows Signs of Slipping
Slightly concerning read. Although it is a WSJ article, it is accessible. Obviously, the media is flipping out about this story. Another story suggests Biden mixed up Xi Jinping and Putin in a time interview. Nothing to see here folks.
Biden admin offers ‘mass amnesty’ to migrants as it quietly terminates 350,000 asylum cases
The Biden Administration Border Policy has been an absolute joke.
Sen. Bob Menendez files for independent run in NJ amid corruption trial
Finally a good decision out of a NY politician.
Claudia Sheinbaum Will Be Mexico’s Next President. But Which Version of Her Will Govern?
Visualization of how the political balance of US university professors has changed over time
Assuming this is accurate data (looks to be) this tells you all you need to know about what is going on at universities today.
Colorado man’s chain blocks gunshot to neck that could have killed him: ‘Just incredible’
Man chokes terrified 6-year-old while stealing her necklace in NYC
Obesity blamed for ‘disturbing’ rise in cancer cases among young
Male birth control gel is safe and effective, new trial findings show
A phase 2 trial for a hormonal gel male birth control showed promising results, with 86% of participants achieving sperm suppression after 12 weeks of use.
Shaking seats and piped-in fog: How 4DX is carving out a niche moviegoing market
I don’t go to movies much anymore, but this premium experience sounds worth a try.
Jeff Bezos Sells Amazon Stock to Bankroll Nonprofit Preschools
Great story.
Have you ever seen a center fielder tag someone out at home plate?
This could be the best high school hustle play of all time. The center fielder tagged out a runner at home plate. Insanity. I take hustle over a high-IQ kid all day long.
Real Estate
This Newsweek article is entitled, “Why New Yorkers Want to Leave,” and even though I miss a lot about NYC, I understand it. Polling conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, surveying 974 eligible New York voters between May 12 and 14, found that 34 percent were actively considering leaving the city. A further 32 percent said they were open to the idea of moving away, but not currently actively considering it. The majority—68%—said they would want to move because of dissatisfaction with the quality of life in country's biggest city. The question is what NYC can do better and how that happens. It starts with participating in the elections. Back a candidate. Get involved. Vote. In the last mayoral election in NYC, only 21% of registered voters participated, compared with 23% in 2017 and 24% in 2013. Most of my wealthy friends are no longer residents of NYC and many still living in NYC won’t be soon. They have been waiting for their kids to graduate high school or vest on stock or fund investments. Sadly, young people I speak with in NYC want to leave. I am talking about 25-34 year-old professionals. When I was that age, it would have been hard for me to leave NYC and the opportunity set. Bad policy, politics, crime, immigration, homelessness, taxes, and quality of life all play a role. NYC, you can do better. This article outlines the population flows out of NY. I walked a lot today including through Washington Sq Park. Multiple people shooting up. Disgusting.
According to a survey by ConsumerAffairs, California ranks as the No. 1 state people are moving from, ahead of New York, New Jersey and Illinois. The report revealed California saw roughly 17,000 people move out of the state, while only just over 7,000 people moved in, making it the leading state in outbound migration. In comparison, New York, which is second on the list, experienced significantly fewer moves. The Consumer Affairs team analyzed data from over 143,000 users from January 2023 to March 2024, indicating North Carolina saw the largest increase in movers. The states with the most significant inbound migration numbers were primarily located in the Southern U.S., with South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee and Texas seeing notable increases. Note the winning states (FL, TX, NC, SC, TN) vs the losing states (CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA).
I keep writing about high-end Miami being hot. Pro athletes, Caroline Wozniacki and David Lee sold their Fisher Island PH for approximately $40mm. They bought it in 2001 for $18.7mm They got almost $6k/foot for it, I am told. People love Fisher Island, but I find the location challenging.
More than 150,000 households filed applications in a span of 12 hours for a chance to join New York City’s waiting list for a federal program that subsidizes rent for low-income families. While roughly 100,000 New York City households currently use the voucher program, known as Section 8, it has long been at maximum capacity, and the waiting list to receive assistance has been locked since 2009. The mad rush to apply for Section 8 comes as the city faces an escalating housing affordability crisis. The city’s apartment vacancy rate fell to 1.4% in 2023, the lowest in more than 50 years.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #688 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
