Opening Comments
My last note was about a parking hack in NYC. The most opened links were the three things to do to prevent back pain from a neurosurgeon and the #1 vegetable to eat to reduce visceral fat.
Jack and I are heading back to NYC tonight for a few days. We had not been to Saucon Valley in almost two years despite being members. It was great to see old friends and play a little golf. We are eating at Marea tomorrow night with friends from JPM and I am having lunch at Jean Georges, Four Twenty-Five. Getting reservations at sought after restaurants was IMPOSSIBLE. Given my time in NYC will be severely limited going forward due to the likely new mayor, I need to get my fill of good food when I can. I refuse to spend money in a city who will elect an antisemitic mayor who hates capitalism. Check out this video of Mamdani mocking Jews during Hannukah.
My daughter Julia is selling clothes at Love Shack Fancy in Southampton five days a week. On Saturday she sold almost $10k of women’s clothes! You go! Anyone looking to shop there find Julia.
Markets
Home Insurance Premiums Climbing in ALL 50 States
Average New Vehicle Payment Data
Political Ideology Gap Is Widening
Manhattan Home Sales Surged in 2nd Q
North Bay Road Record Lot Sale
Cape Coral, FL R/E is Under Pressure
Picture of the Day-PopUp Bagel Review
Everyone loves a good bagel, and I have scoured NYC for great options. Back in the olden days, H&H was my go-to spot for a great bagel fresh out of the oven. In recent years, NYC has seen Apollo, Leon’s, PopUp Bagels, and others open. In recent months, I have tried them all and must tell you that PopUp is the winner today. There are long lines for a reason. I don’t like the minimum bagel requirement of three per order, but the quality and texture of the bagel is amazing. I ordered hot bagels, and my son Jack and I agreed they were remarkable. The inside was soft, and the outside had just the right crunch. For $13, you get three bagels and a healthy portion of the cream cheese of your choice. I tried the everything bagel and a plain bagel with scallion cream cheese. Even the texture of the cream cheese was perfect, allowing it to be easily spread. Also of note, Pop Up Bagels offers interesting “schmear” collaborations with famous brands like Grillo Pickles. They change monthly which always gives you something new to try. A reader and dear friend is opening Pop-Up Bagels in most counties in Florida. I hope they are as good as they are in NYC. The website allows you to order in advance and pick-up. I highly recommend Pop Up Bagels for your next brunch.
Food 9.2 Among the best bagel I can recall
Ambiance-Long Lines-
Price-$13 for 3 bagels and a medium cream cheese.
Root Canal Fun
There are fun sayings about root canals. “The last time I had this much fun was a root-canal operation,” is a favorite of mine. Well, I had to have one last month. It was not horrific, but definitely uncomfortable.
I am very careful with my teeth and brush three times a day. I have only had a few cavities in my 55 years. However, about 25 years ago, I needed a root canal. I am told the technology has improved dramatically since that time. Although I felt a little discomfort, the dentist thought it was fine until a few weeks ago. She felt it was infected and sent me to an endodontist.
I was given a 20-second scan of my tooth that cost me $300 and it showed I needed a $1,600 root canal. I was shocked that the scan was not covered by insurance, and when I say “20 seconds,” I am being generous. It was less. It turns out it is not uncommon for old root canals to fail or become infected.
The doctor put me on antibiotics for three days prior to the procedure. It took about an hour and never hurt but was definitely something I would prefer to avoid. You need to keep your mouth open for an hour, and it is irritating and uncomfortable. I was gagging on the stupid thing they put in your mouth to keep it open. The new root canal is evident in the picture below.
The endodontist put a “temporary” cap on the tooth and told me I needed to see the dentist for a permanent one. This makes ABSOLUTELY zero sense to me. Why not do a permanent one after the root canal? I think the endodontist and dentist are in cahoots as the dentist gives the root canal business and needs something in return. I had to chew on the left side of my mouth for a week and then saw my dentist who had to drill out the temporary filling and replace it with a new one. It only took 15 minutes but was an irritating week of chewing on one side of my mouth.
Quick Bites
Big news Friday was June payroll data showing 147k adds to nonfarm payrolls and roughly half were government jobs. The better-than-expected payroll data led to a nice rally in stocks. Thursday’s report comes a day after ADP released data showing that private payrolls decreased by 33,000 last month, raising fears that perhaps the economy was starting to stumble under the weight of rapid policy changes out of Washington. American born workers increased by 830k, while foreign born workers dropped by 348k. On the week, the S&P was +1.7% and Nasdaq +1.6%. The VIX is back to 16.4 relative to 60.1 in April on the heels of “Liberation Day.” In August 2024, the VIX hit 65 on the heels of the unwind of the Yen carry trade. Given stronger than expected payroll data, Treasury yields rose with the 10-year +6bp to 4.35% and the 30 year +4bps to 4.86%. The likelihood of a July rate cut is back down to 5% or less post the data. Although oil was largely unchanged on the week, news Saturday should lead to lower prices. OPEC+ agree to increase production by 548k barrels/day in August, which is higher than the 411k expected increase.
Good CNBC article on rising insurance premiums impact ALL 50 states. The online marketplace Insurify projects California premiums will rise 21% this year. In fact, Insurify is projecting premium increases in all 50 states this year, averaging around 8%. California’s increase is not even the largest. That distinction belongs to Louisiana, where premiums are projected to rise 28%. Nor is the phenomenon limited to coastal states. Iowa and Minnesota are also looking at double-digit increases. “It’s not just a story for areas like coastal Florida or the wildfire prone parts of California. It’s really a much more national story,” said Benjamin Keys, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “We’re seeing states like Vermont with rising costs related to recent floods. We’re seeing states like Colorado, which historically was a middle of the pack state when it came to the cost of insurance, seeing rapidly increasing insurance costs due to recent wildfires, and increased hailstorms in many parts of the Midwest.” Premiums vary widely from state to state, with Florida’s the highest at $15,460 on average as projected by Insurify. The lowest average premium is in Vermont at $1,248, despite its recent increases. If you need help with your Luxury Home, Condo, or CoOp Insurance, reach out to Lang Insurance. I switched and they saved me real money using the best HNW insurance carriers. I have literally had many dozens of readers move to Lang and all have called or emailed thankful for the intro. He does work in all 50 states. Call Kevin Lang at 866.964.4434. “It doesn’t matter who your insurance agent is…until it does.
I have written about inflation and the impact on the consumer. Check out this article about the record percentage of car buyers paying $1,000 or more a month for a car payment. In the 2nd quarter, 19.3% of new vehicle buyers paid $1,000 or more, and the average payment was $756/month. Edmunds reported that car buyers are taking out longer-term loans to achieve palatable payments. In the quarter, 22.4% of new-vehicle financing were of loans 84 months or longer, a new record. In the second quarter last year, 84-month loans accounted for 17.6% of new-car financing. Edmunds' data also showed that bigger loans are becoming the new normal with the average amount financed for new vehicles climbing to $42,388 in the quarter, again an all-time high, up from $40,873 in the year-ago quarter. If you think used vehicles are considerably less, think again. In the second quarter, the average loan length taken on a used car was 69.7 months, that's flat compared with the year-ago quarter. The average APR was 10.9%, down from 11.5% a year earlier. Yet the average monthly payment was $7 higher at $559 compared with a year earlier. That's because the average amount financed rose to $29,080 from $28,166 and the average down payment dropped to $4,092 from $4,140. Given the median family income in the US is $125k, average payments of $756/month per car seems steep given that most families have two cars. On a related note, there are 45mm people with student loans and now 24% are delinquent (great charts in this link).
The discussion of politics has never been more of a third rail issue. I found the FT charts below showing the growing political divide between young men and woman interesting and concerning. The Democratic Primary in NYC that resulted in Mamdani winning and likely becoming the next mayor of NYC has also led to a lot of heated discussion. This short video link is hysterical and concerning at the same time about the potential date of two young NYers. The woman is a Mamdani supporter, and when the young man finds out, things break down. Worth a watch. The texts of the young couple’s discussion are below the charts. The “Murray Hill Guy” is the young man who cancelled the date when his new friend outlined her support for Mamdani. Even funnier is Murray Hill is in the 30s on the East side of Manhattan and is where many recent college grads live when starting their career in NYC.
Tariffs
I have been critical of the Trump Administration’s sloppy tariff rollout. I have agreed that reciprocal tariffs are warranted, but thought the process of initiating them could have been done in a much more efficient manner. The impact on US companies is enormous. I thought I would put things into perspective. The US imports roughly $4 trillion of goods and services each year. If we suggest that tariffs average 15% on goods only (some are 10%, but Vietnam is 20% and China is 30%), we will get approximately $500bn of revenue in the US. My point is given the US is running $2 trillion deficits, $500bn in revenues from tariffs (assuming they stay in place) is not insignificant.
Trump Said Trade Deals Would Come Easy. Japan Is Proving Him Wrong.
U.S. lifts chip software curbs on China in sign of trade truce
Politics
The “Big Beautiful Bill” narrowly passed Congress (on party line votes with no Ds voting for it - just as first use of reconciliation by Ds passed with no R votes). The final vote was 218-214, with two Republicans — Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick — voting against it, This article tries to outline the pros and cons of the bill. These bills are so voluminous and complicated that I could never accurately summarize them or estimate the impact on our large, complex economy and nation. Make no mistake: This is a big political win for Trump. However, like all these bills there will be pros and cons. I am very concerned about the growth in spending and its impact to the deficit and debt levels, but the truth of the matter is no one knows the actual impact given the complexity. The CBO tries but has proven to be an unreliable forecaster of these things. I would have preferred more spending reductions (there are no “cuts” as we in private sector view the word, only reductions in rate of growth and, for example, some modest Medicaid reforms). And of course, some Rs, like Sen Murkowsi took advantage of the situation to secure immense pork for her pet projects for being the last vote. It is unclear to me how this will play out in the mid-term elections.
Trump had a rough period from late February through April due to inflation fears, trade wars, Liberation Day, a severe stock market sell off, Russia/Ukraine issues, and more. I was critical of some of his sloppiness.
In recent weeks, the stock market reached new highs. The Trump administration signed trade deals to lower tariffs and barriers, supported Israel, and conducted airstrikes in Iran while helping broker a cease-fire between the two countries. The administration also helped pass the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which made pro-growth marginal tax rates permanent, reformed Medicaid, raised the SALT cap, and eliminated taxes on tips.
On the international front, NATO allies agreed to increase military spending following U.S. pressure. At home, the administration won court rulings enabling the deportation of undocumented immigrants and limiting the use of nationwide injunctions by district judges.
Trump also won $16 million in a lawsuit against CBS for misleading edits in an interview with Kamala Harris. Canada dropped its digital services tax, and several top universities backtracked on civil rights issues — including Penn, which revoked honors from a transgender swimmer in a move to comply with Title IX protections for female athletes.
DEI mandates have been scaled back, job growth among native-born workers has risen, and other policy shifts are underway.
Like him or hate him, he has had a hell of a few weeks after quite a rough start. The spending issue remain. I hope Rs pass “rescission” bills over the next fiscal year, continue eliminating nonproductive spending, and rooting out fraud with accountability though DOGE. I hope that Ds will regain some fiscal sanity, and some will begin calling for spending discipline and ultimately will need bipartisan entitlement reform. I also wish, on this Independence Day weekend, that we would go back to the norm of partisan politics ending at the border, and more Ds would be working with and helping the Administration on defending Israel, Christians in the Middle East, ending fentanyl, and sex trafficking. Most of all, I remain humbled and grateful to be an American and am thankful to the men and women in uniform who dedicated and dedicate their lives to protecting and defending our freedoms.
The biggest news story in politics apart from the Trump bill is the NYC mayoral race and Bill Ackman sent out a STRONG Tweet on the topic backing Adams. He suggested that Cuomo’s body language, subdued energy, and his proposals to beat Mandani were not enough to win. Check out Ackman’s long message after meeting both Adams and Cuomo here. I think both candidates are massively flawed and neither are impressive. However, relative to Mamdani, they look amazing. Another disturbing article on Mamdani’s views. I can’t help but to think Mamdani’s win had some help from no voter ID requirements in NYC. Here is a video of the socialist on stage with Mahmoud Khalil who is a pro-Hamas activist. Any Jew voting for this guy needs their head examined.
Mamdani Identified as Asian and African American on College Application
Elon Musk Creates His Own Political Party to Take Down Trump — and Gives It a MAGA-Friendly Name
Illegal Border Crossings To US Lowest In June
Only 6,070 encounters of illegal immigrants at the southern border in June, a new record low. The biggest failure of the Biden Administration was the border, and Trump closed it in short order. Even the NY Times covered it.
ICE’s $175 billion windfall: Trump’s mass deportation force set to receive military-level funding
I feel due to various legal actions; the Trump Administration has not deported the number of illegal immigrants they wanted. However, with the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill, ICE will have a massive war chest that is likely to lead to more success on deportations.
U.S. deportation tracker: Counting arrests, detentions and border crossings
I have struggled to find an accurate count of deportations since Trump took office. Although this data is updated, it is a couple weeks dated.
Utah man wrongfully detained by ICE for nearly 50 days, attorney says
There are more stories of wrongfully detained people in recent weeks.
Trump pitches plan allowing farmers to vouch for illegal immigrant workers facing deportation
I have spoken with farmers in panic mode due to ICE raids. In the Hamptons, farmers are struggling to find workers after multiple raids including one at Hamptons Coffee that has many illegal immigrants in hiding.
White House reveals highest-paid staffers – and 8 taking no salaries
Salaries range from $59,070 to $225,700 with press secretary Karoline Leavitt and border czar Tom Homan among those earning just under $200,000
Illinois' population is aging 'faster' than the rest of the country
Nearly half of high school graduates leave for out-of-state colleges, with 70% never returning.
Poll: Californians ready to govern themselves, stop just short of secession
Trump’s deportations are hurting Constellation Brands’ beer sales
Middle East
US ready to arm Israel with bunker-busting bombs if Iran goes nuclear
Iran won't retaliate against U.S. — but will keep enriching uranium, top official says
Columbia University’s president issued a groveling apology, saying she regrets a text suggesting removal of a Jewish board member and a separate one urging the school to get an “Arab” board member “quickly.” The Jew hate is insanity. Trump has held these antisemitic schools accountable and for that, I am grateful.
What's next for Iran's terror army, the IRGC, after devastating military setbacks?
‘Rampant antisemitic abuse’ at Massachusetts schools, complaint states
Other Headlines
The US dollar is on track for its worst year in modern history
Tripadvisor stock surges 17% as Starboard Value builds sizable stake in online travel company
With $6B donation, Warren Buffett has now given away over $60B
The idiot, Mamandi, hates capitalism and billionaires. He would rather have Buffett’s billions to redistribute. Let me be crystal clear. The government is the single worst steward of capital apart from Bernie Madoff. Federal, State, and Local governments waste TRILLIONS, and I do not trust them to spend my hard-earned money. Governments are incredibly slow moving and inefficient. I trust Buffett and other billionaires like Musk, Gates, and most others (not Soros) to properly allocate capital in lieu of the government. When I think about the damage Mamdani would do to NYC, it is scary. I take solace in the fact that many of his onerous proposals will never get approved.
The increasing peril of being an American billionaire
The super-rich grew by 101 members last year in the US, reaching 835, yet increasing security threats are making their lives more precarious.
CEO: Never leave a job interview without asking this No. 1 question—it ‘cuts through the BS’
French air traffic controllers’ walkout disrupts early summer season travel
4 dead, 14 injured in drive-by mass shooting outside Chicago nightclub
NYC driving school rigged driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants — even if they couldn’t drive
US teens caught bullying could lose driving license
I would like to see far more severe punishment for bullying. Mandatory expulsion.
Texas flooding latest: 43 dead, including 15 children, as search for some two dozen girls continues
82-Year-Old Woman Banned from YMCA for Objecting to Male in Ladies’ Locker Room Wins Her Fight
Lottery Winner Has Dizzying Criminal Record
He won $167mm despite his 16-page rap sheet and a 35-year criminal record including strangling a girlfriend, selling cocaine, escaping prison, bribing a corrections officer, and smuggling marijuana. He has been in at least 25 correctional institutions where he has spent nearly 30 years.
Health
There is no safe amount of processed meat to eat, according to new research
Hot weather is killing your sperm — 6 ways to salvage fertility in summer heat waves
3 weird ways to keep your brain healthy
I did not see chewing gum as one of them.
Real Estate
Manhattan Home Sales Surge 17% With Cash Buyers Leading the Way
Manhattan home sales in the second quarter were stronger than they've been in almost two years, with over 3,000 co-op and condo purchases closing, a 17% jump from a year earlier.
Cash buyers drove the market, with cash deals jumping 23% and reaching a record-high share of 69% of all transactions, while mortgage buyers were more cautious due to uncertainty over Trump's trade policies.
The luxury segment, driven by wealthy buyers, was a key driver of the market's strength, with the median price of luxury purchases rising 8.8% to over $6.5 million and transactions up 18%.
Let’s see what high end real estate looks like in NYC if capitalist-hating socialist Mamdani wins.
A lot on North Bay Road in Miami sold for a record $1,370 ft for the .4 acre parcel. The buyer paid $24mm and owned the house next door. Steve Witkoff was the seller who bought the property for $8mm in 2020. The high end in Miami remains hot even though we are definitely seeing Florida cool down on the R/E front in many places (see below). If Mamdani wins, I expect another flood of wealthy to migrate to South Florida. North Bay Road is home to many of the rich and famous and David Beckham just bought a house down the street for $72.3mm.
“Cape Coral is the worst housing market in America right now,” said José Echevarria, a Realtor. “I don’t think we’re at the bottom yet.” Home prices for Cape Coral-Fort Myers have tumbled 11% in the two years through May, the most of any major metro area, according to an analysis for The Wall Street Journal by the listing site Homes.com. The area’s home prices have declined for 12 out of the past 13 months, and 52% of the homes have experienced price cuts, according to Parcl Labs, a real-estate data-analytics company. While that is more than nearly anywhere else in the U.S., neighboring communities such as Sarasota and Tampa are in a similar bind. Home prices have been battered by everything from overbuilding to insurance costs. Realtors warn there’s further to fall. At the height of the recent Florida migration frenzy, Lee County, where Cape Coral is located, had 3,500 homes available for sale. Now there are 12,000 listed. Affordability issues with sharply higher home prices, higher interest rates, sky rocketing insurance and maintenance costs are all playing a factor.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #799 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
