Sleep Like a Rock

9-15-24

Opening Comments

My last note was about Mahi-mahi fishing in Boca last week. The most opened links were the 9/11 pictures from the tragic day and red flags for the IRS auditors for everyday filers.

I introduced two avid readers who were in Miami and suggested they eat at LPM on Brickell. I love that place and they had a great meal. More RR connections.

I met my long-time friend, Josh, at El Camino in Boca on Tuesday night. The place was jam-packed and I must tell you the Happy Hour is quite solid and offers value. No, this is not a Michelin Star experience or close, but felt the food and drink offered value for the price. I had a $3 crispy fish taco, the $5 brisket quesadillas, and a margarita. Pretty solid at those prices.

Avoid South Florida until November.

• Video of the Day-Frank Sinatra Story

• Sleep Like a Rock

• Quick Bites

  • Markets

  • AI $150bn Valuation?

  • Wall Street Analyst Hours

  • YTD Interest on Federal Debt Over $1 Trillion

• 2024 Election

• Israel/Middle East

• Other Headlines

• Real Estate

  • Naftali Expanding in Miami

  • Barry Sternlicht Surrounded 1.3mm sq ft of Office Space

• Other R/E Headlines

Video of the Day-Funny Video of Frank Sinatra

• Sinatra tells a short story to Johnny Carson about a joke Don Rickles played on Sinatra. It is a funny story from the icon. Carson was my favorite late night host of all-time, and I remember staying up late watching him and thinking he was the funniest man in the world. The new late night hosts are AWFUL in my opinion.

  

Sleep Like a Rock

Even though I have been a good sleeper historically, as I get older, I am sleeping far less each night. Add in the fact that my wife is always cold, and it makes sleeping even harder. She wants the air at 77 and I want it at 70. As a result, I would sleep on top of the comforter and she would sleep under the sheets with a comforter, and thick blanket. I have found a solution.

I had heard from an astute reader in August about Eight Sleep and their award-winning sleep technology called the Pod 4 Ultra. One of my friends who is in incredible shape and takes his health, workouts, eating, and sleeping SERIOUSLY gave me two words to describe it, “Game Changing.”

Why? Because the Pod 4 Ultra gives you the ability to make each side of the bed different temperatures. In other words, it allows you to keep one side of the bed cool (as low as 55 degrees) and the other side warm. It also has sensors that detect snoring and will automatically lift your head by a few degrees to improve airflow and reduce snoring.

Coincidentally, I was recently asked if I would consider a partnership with Eight Sleep and I said, “Unless I use the product and like it, I cannot endorse anything.” I received the Eight Sleep Pod 4 (not Ultra) and in just a few minutes, installed it on my bed. I then got on the phone with tech support to help me set up the system on my phone that acts as a remote control. Eight Sleep connects you with support in short order and a LIVE HUMAN speaks English to help you. The support staff was knowledgeable and helpful, a rarity today.

I set it up on a Monday afternoon and was going fishing early on Tuesday morning. I never sleep well knowing I need to be up at 5:30 am. However, I had a shockingly good night’s sleep despite my concerns about not waking up in time. I also realized I wanted the bed colder than my initial setting and redid the temperature for Tuesday night, making my side of the bed COLD. I slept amazingly well, as you can see below. For some reason, I always sleep better when I am cooler. I was sleeping approximately 6 hours per night prior to Eight Sleep but check out the first real report below that shows I slept almost 8 hours.

Clinical trials show Eight Sleep helps you do the following:

• Sleep more and better

• Reduce snoring by up to 45%

• Get more deep sleep

• Spend less time trying to fall asleep and more time asleep

  

Eight Sleep has two world-famous people on its scientific advisory board: Peter Attia, MD and Andrew Huberman, PhD. I am a huge fan of Dr. Attia, who is a Stanford/Hopkins/NIH-trained physician focusing on longevity, the extension of human life, and well-being. Many world-class athletes and industry leaders sleep with Eight Sleep products (Taylor Fritz, Lewis Hamilton, Danny Green, Aaron Judge, Stoltman, Bryan Johnson, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Ferris, Victoria Paris, and many others).

Given my new partnership with Eight Sleep, I can give Rosen Report readers $350 off the Pod 4 Ultra or $200 off any Pod 4. Just visit eightsleep.com/rosen/ and use code ROSEN.

I only partner with or promote brands that I use and believe in myself. My partnerships with 3i Members (I am an active member), Lang Insurance (I am a customer), and now Eight Sleep (I am a customer) are mentioned in my reports because I believe in them as products or services. I refuse to partner with any company I do not use myself and have turned down numerous opportunities to endorse companies that do not resonate with me or my readers. If you want to use cutting-edge technology to improve your sleep, I suggest you give Eight Sleep a try.

Quick Bites

• Stocks traded higher on Friday as Wall Street headed for a strong weekly gain ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are coming off their fourth straight winning session, adding to their strong week-to-date performances. The broad market index is up 3.6% this week, while the Nasdaq has popped 5.3%. On the week, the 2-year Treasury yield fell 5bps to 3.59%. Oil rose after falling as low as $66 due to supply disruptions in the Gulf from Hurricane Francine (30% of output offline) coupled with supply disruptions in Libya. Oil closed at $71 or +1.4% for the week after weeks of declines. Another positive note was consumer sentiment rose as shoppers are seeing more favorable prices. However, the Restaurant Performance Index was -1.3% to 97.7, the lowest level since the 2020 lockdowns. Also on the consumer, more auto and cards are delinquent.

  

  

• In January of 2023, I wrote that I felt AI would be a game-changer. Sadly, I did not buy Nvidia stock at the time. Open AI is trying to raise $6.5bn at a $150bn valuation. At the same time, OpenAI is also in talks to raise $5 billion in debt from banks in the form of a revolving credit facility, said one of the people, all of whom asked not to be identified discussing private information. The funding round is slated to be led by Thrive Capital, Bloomberg previously reported. Microsoft Corp., the company’s largest investor, is also set to participate, and Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp., have been in talks about investing. In a memo to employees last month, OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said the financing will support the need for computing power and other operating expenses. Tiger Global is planning on investing, while Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple are considering investing as well.

  

• This WSJ story is entitled, “Wall Street Curbs Young Bankers’ Hours After Overwork Outcry.” For decades, being a junior analyst on Wall Street meant ridiculous hours, especially in banking. I mentor many kids and often hear about how miserable they are working at major investment banks due to the ridiculous hours. Some work 20-hour days and have no life. I guess complaints are getting the attention of senior management. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America plan to limit and more closely track young bankers’ hours following a Wall Street Journal investigation that detailed a dangerous culture of overwork on Wall Street. JPMorgan will now cap junior investment bankers’ hours at 80 a week in most cases, people familiar with the matter said. Meanwhile, Bank of America is implementing a new timekeeping tool that requires junior bankers to go into more detail about how their time is spent, other people familiar with the matter said. The question of how much to work junior employees, whose entry-level salaries can reach $200,000, has divided Wall Street for decades. But many of them said consistent bouts of working long hours are not only mentally grueling but also hazardous to their health. Here is my opinion; if you are in one of these programs, bite your tongue and do it for 2-3 years. If you are at a top investment bank, you can write your ticket after your time there. It sucks, but hopefully, more firms will change the rules to make the work-life balance more palatable. The article shows that Goldman and Morgan Stanley have no formal caps on hours. Here is the Business Insider’s take on the story.

  

• I have written extensively about my concerns about the growing debt level, deficits, mounting interest, and entitlement programs. This CNBC story shows the US government has spent more than $1 trillion on interest payments for the $35.3 trillion in debt this year. This is +30% over last year and expected to total close to $1.2 trillion for the full fiscal year which ends in October. In 25 years, we have tripled our annual interest expense. Through August, the budget deficit was almost $2 trillion. The August monthly deficit alone was $381bn. As you can see on Exhibit 14, every new dollar of debt generates just 58c of GDP. That chart should scare you. How are $2 trillion deficits in perpetuity sustainable? The CBO projects $22 trillion in deficits the next 10 years taking our debt levels to close to $60 trillion with the 2034 deficit at $2.9 trillion. Of note, the CBO tends to underestimate annual deficits and increase forecasts over time. The CBO forecasts are for deficits to GDP of 6-7% which is absolute insanity and historically reserved for recessions or wars. I do not feel tax cuts are the answer, but we need to rein in spending. Musk spoke for an hour at the All-In Summit last week and covered a bunch of interesting topics. One was government spending/waste and I started the video at that point in the discussion. He also goes into detail about the cost of regulation on business and the government overreach and size is too big. Quite an interesting take. Musk eviscerates the Biden administration’s regulatory approval process.

  

  

2024 Election

• Brian Taff's full interview with VP Kamala Harris

  • The 11-minute interview can be seen in the above link. I do not feel Harris answers the questions asked. Her answers are awkward. However, at least she is finally taking questions. How about Fox or the All-In Podcast next?

• Kamala Harris got the debate she wanted

  • Nate Silver’s take on the debate.

• ‘Finger On The Scale’: Former Clinton Pollster Says ABC Hosts Put Future Debates ‘In Jeopardy’

• Debate conflict of interest with ABC moderator Linsey Davis CONFIRMED. She is a sorority sister of Kamala Harris, and even confirmed it on a live broadcast 3 1/2 years ago.

  • Harris won the debate but felt ABC moderators were on her side.

  • ABC whistleblower allegedly will release an affidavit claiming the Harris campaign was given sample questions that were “essentially the same questions that were given during the debate,” as well as assurances that Trump would be “fact-checked” and she would not. Remember, Donna Brazile gave Clinton questions in advance from CNN. Nothing would surprise me but this has not been confirmed for Kamala.

  • Kamala Harris did not receive debate questions in advance, ABC claims: ‘Absolutely not’

• House Republicans lament Trump's 'terrible' debate performance: 'Let her get under his skin'

• GOP pollster Frank Luntz: Debate will cost Trump the election

• Trump Rules Out More Presidential Debates With Harris

  • Bloomberg reporting Trump will not do another debate. This is a WEAK outcome. He got beat and should be willing to show he can be better. The last debates were CNN and ABC. The next should be at Fox News.

    

• Taylor Swift's call to action brought nearly a half million visitors to vote.gov in 24 hours

  • I believe Swift is the most influential person on the planet. Her tour has a massive impact on cities she visits, she has sharply improved ratings for the NFL just by going to a game and is driving half of a million people to register to vote. Oh yeah, she is a musician, singer, and songwriter who wins award after award and makes hit after hit.

• Harris’ rise in polls sparks wave of wealth transfers to kids

  

• DJT shares soar 25% as Trump says ‘I’m not selling’ stake

  • Stock is -75% from the March highs despite the rally.

    

• Bipartisan Group of Election Officials Raise Concerns Over Postal Service’s Capabilities

• Forget polls, the stock market is the most accurate predictor of presidential elections

• Independent voters surprise pollster with reactions to Trump's debate performance: 'Didn't expect it'

• Most White Christians support Trump for president; majorities in several other religious groups back Harris

  • Harris has 65% of the Jewish vote, the lowest level in 36 years.

• The demographic that identifies most as Democrats is voters age 65+. The demographic that identifies least as Democrats is voters age 18-29.

  

• Trump tariff threats will trigger import ‘rush,’ say trade experts, and consumers pay the price

Israel/Middle East

• Iran threatens 'nightmare' for Israel as UN watchdog warns Tehran nuclear programs runs unchecked

• Israel destroyed reported Iranian underground missile factory in Syria ground raid

• Turkey's 'Islamic' offensive against Israel grows as Gaza war rages - analysis

• Jewish Democrat suing Harvard over antisemitism chastises his party for inaction, endorses Trump

• Bill Maher and Henry Winkler clash over war in Gaza: 'Are you watching the same footage I'm watching?'

• Mass. pro-Israel rally descends into chaos as demonstrator shoots anti-Israel agitator who tackled him

Other Headlines

• Goldman Sachs Strategists Say Stocks Unlikely to Sink Into Bear Market

• European Central Bank cuts interest rates again as inflation cools

• Ajit Jain, Buffett’s insurance leader for nearly 40 years, dumps more than half of Berkshire stake

  

• Boeing warns strike will ‘jeopardize’ recovery, hurt aircraft production

  • Boeing is one of the worst-run companies over the last decade. The stock is -38% YTD and -59% over the last 5 years, while the S&P is +19% and +87% for the last year and 5 years respectively.

    

• Moderna to cut $1.1 billion in costs and launch 10 new products by 2027 as it charts post-Covid future

• Bitcoin could soon hit six figures regardless of who wins U.S. election

• Adobe stock slips on soft fourth-quarter revenue guidance

  

• Oracle bumps up fiscal 2026 revenue forecast, lifting stock 6%

• MicroStrategy stock pops 8% after company ups bitcoin holdings to $14.6 billion

• It took 50,000 gallons of water to put out Tesla Semi fire in California, US agency says

• Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw replaced by CFO after alleged affair

• Atlanta Fed's Bostic violated trading rules, US central bank watchdog says`

  • I want politicians and Fed officials held to the same standards as regular citizens. Bostic had 154 trades during the “Blackout Periods.”

• Amazon Wants Your Palm and TSA Wants Your Face. What Saying Yes Will Mean.

• Ohio resident behind post that sparked false rumors about Haitian migrants eating pets in Springfield expresses regret: ‘It just exploded’

• Violent crime has increased under Harris-Biden admin — after ABC’s David Muir disputed Trump’s claim that crime is ‘through the roof’

• How migrant gang Tren de Aragua became a vicious criminal force across America: ‘They’re coming and they’re taking over’

• Illegal migrant from Dominican Republic suspected of ‘horrifically’ killing New York family of four

• Influx of wild-driving Haitian migrants turning streets of Springfield, Ohio, into combat zone: ‘Eight to 10 accidents a day here’

• NYC teacher choked, dragged 5-year-old across class in rage as boy cried ‘I can’t breathe’

• NYPD Commissioner Edward Caban resigns

• NYC bar owner claims outgoing NYPD commish’s brother James Caban tried to ‘extort’ him over police enforcement

  • This does not read well.

• Hedge-funder in hot water: Sahm Adrangi arrested on DUI, cocaine charges in Hamptons

  • As more people smoke weed and eat gummies, I am finding more people do coke and mushrooms. Is there a connection?

• Bill Gates on the No. 1 thing that keeps him up at night: ‘If we avoid a big war...there will be another pandemic’

• First Robot Leg With 'Artificial Muscles' Jumps Nimbly

• Eating too much and working in bed: experts share 10 worst sleep mistakes

• High lead levels found in cinnamon and spice blends from 12 brands, report finds

• Belly fat could be fueling body-wide pain

• Rock Used as Doorstop For Decades Turns Out to Be Worth Over $1 Million

  • 7.7lb piece of amber

• Tech billionaire pulls off first private spacewalk high above Earth

• Carnival cruise ship collides with iceberg

• A landslide triggered a 650-foot mega-tsunami in Greenland. Then came something inexplicable

  • Crazy story suggesting that there was a vibration for 9 days that shook the planet post the tsunami.

• Putin Puts West On Notice: Long-Range Arms For Ukraine Will Mean 'NATO At War With Russia'

• US Scrambles Fighter Jets To Intercept Russian Aircraft Near Alaska

Real Estate

• I thought this was an interesting Bloomberg article about high-end developer, Naftali as he expands into Miami. Miki Naftali, a real estate developer who rose to prominence building New York luxury condos, is hunting for deals in Miami Beach as he seeks to expand in South Florida. “You can walk in the water in Miami Beach many days of the year and buyers want that,” Naftali, who is chief executive officer of Naftali Group, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters, adding that people are paying $5,000 per square foot in Miami Beach. “Do you know how hard that is to get in New York?”

• If you are an RR reader, you know I am a HUGE fan of Barry Sternlicht and believe him to be one of the best R/E investors of our generation. Not only is her brilliant, he is funny and charismatic. Barry Sternlicht's Starwood has surrendered a 1.3M sq ft El Segundo office complex to lenders after falling behind on ~$500M in debt, per TRD. This is the 2nd complex in El Segundo they've surrendered this year after losing a building next door. Starwood also recently surrendered 3 buildings in Oakland in addition to the El Segundo buildings. Many of the greatest RE investors/operators like Barry Sternlicht are being impacted from this office meltdown.

Other R/E Headlines

• Mortgage rates hit lowest level since February 2023

  

• Nancy Pelosi just bought into an LLC that buys commercial office property in San Francisco

  • Given Pelosi’s uncanny ability to time the market and earn massive excess returns, maybe San Francisco office properties are bottoming?

• Owners at a Florida golf community with three courses may lose their $30,000 initial buy-in equity

  • Interesting story about the golf course community, Hunters Run, in Boynton Beach, Florida. The community needs improvements and voted to not return the equity (initial initiation) back to the club to its members upon the sale of their homes. Many are selling their homes, and it is creating havoc on prices. Deals to be had, but I would never live there.

• Wealthy Americans Are Spiking Portugal’s Algarve Housing Market

  • So many of my readers go to Portugal. One is there right now. I have not been in 25 years but I loved my time there.

© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #717 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.