Opening Comments
Clearly, many of my readers agree with me that the US healthcare system is a mess after the response to my last piece, “Crisis in US Healthcare.” We all agree that the healthcare crisis needs solutions. We can start by doing all we can to control is our own health. Whether or not we smoke, how we eat, exercise, drink and take care of ourselves is important. I am not the best example, as I eat right and exercise and I am injured more than someone who lives in Assisted Living with two fake hips. However, it is crucial that we try to influence outcomes by being healthier. In the 1960s, 3.4% of adults were obese and today 41.9% of American adults are obese, up from 30.5% twenty years ago according to the CDC. The cost of obesity is in the many hundreds of billions annually in direct healthcare costs and over one trillion dollars indirect costs. Only 3.6% of Japanese adults are obese for perspective. Clearly, we can do better in the USA. This 2018 Miklen Institue article on obesity is quite informative. The report suggests as of 2016, over 60% of Americans are obese or overweight and I believe the data has only deteriorated. Another Oxford University study suggests that moderate obesity reduces life expectancy by 3 years and severe obesity by 10 years or the equivalent of life-long smoking.
Obesity causes heart disease, stroke, high blood pressure, diabetes, gallbladder issues, gout, breathing issues, stroke, cancer, sleep apnea, and many other ailments. The most common comorbidity in patients death due to COVID has been hypertension, cardiovascular disease and diabetes, which are all associated with obesity. If Americans significantly improved diets and exercise, we would have far less stressed medical systems. I agree that body shaming is cruel, and that’s not what I’m intending here. But I am frustrated by the suggestion that morbidly obese people are healthy. I cannot get behind telling my kids that I think Super Model, Tess Holliday, (pictured below) should maintain her weight or is a bastion of health. She is 5’3” and 280lbs with a BMI of 50 (Normal is 18.5-24.9). This article suggests that every inch on your waistline increases the risk of heart failure by over 10%. I am not suggesting the anorexic 5’11” model is the ideal, but we need a happy medium.
I don’t have all the answers to our healthcare debacle, but believe taking better care of ourselves in terms of diet, exercise, sleep, moderate drinking, smoking… will go a long way. Another idea is to have insurance companies pay for more preventative/alternative care which would save money and lives in the long run.
I wrote a report called the “Baseball Card Blues” in January 2022 about my 45 year old card collection worth ZERO. That statement is almost statistically impossible as the cards were from the 1960s and 1970s and I had nothing of value. Someone must have stolen my good cards. I saw a Mickey Mantle sold for $12.6mm. Of course it was not in my collection.
I was out all afternoon at my daughter’s golf tournament I’m sure I missed a couple late stories
Video of the Day
Spatial Awareness
Quick Bites
Markets
Retail Inventories
22 Year Inflation Chart
Quantitative Tightening Ramping/Market Impact
Red Wave Fading
Other Headlines
Crime Headlines
Virus/Vaccine
Real Estate
General Markets
NYC Luxury Market Activity
$15mm Southwest Ranches Home. Crazy.
Other R/E Headlines
Video of the Day
When it comes to explaining relatives and how they are related, I am not very talented. I recall watching a show on the Kennedy Family, and I was a mess at trying to figure out that family tree and how people were related. A high school teacher did a short TikTok video explaining what “once removed” actually means. My first TikTock experience. Check it out here.
Spatial Awareness
My limited skill set has been widely discussed. However, my kitchen game is quite solid. I started my cooking journey at a young age. It began with microwaving something for dinner at 8 and I graduated to starting to make more impressive meals. In college, I cooked regularly, and I wanted to showcase my skills. I cooked for a date and, when she bragged to all of her friends about it, I realized I was onto something.
As a young professional in NYC, I honed my cooking skills and my sisters were helpful in my development by giving me ideas and coaching over the phone. My sister, Debbie, is a masterful baker who had a big influence on improving my game. I also started pairing food with wine, which is a big hit. Once I learned more about olive oil and the importance of finishing oils on meals, my cooking fate was sealed.
I have made Thanksgiving dinners for dozens of people with limited assistance. I can cook or bake most things. Some go-to dishes are lemon chicken, meatballs, bolognese, fennel crusted turkey, waygu steak, ginger crusted salmon, mahi or wahoo tacos with homemade aioli, turkey meatloaf, seared tuna, turkey burgers, ribs, chili and many others. I make homemade banana chocolate chip pancakes with caramelized bananas too. I roast veggies with shallots, garlic, leaks, make crazy mashed potatoes, saffron risotto, roasted potatoes, sauteed corn salad and many others. My baking game is pretty solid too. I have used the base recipe of my sister and honed it to perfection for world famous cookies. I make banana bread, oatmeal raisin cookies, brownies, muffins, pies….My flourless chocolate cake with homemade caramel is a fan favorite.
Having said all these things about my cooking skills, to me they are not as impressive as my ability to perfectly anticipate the right Tupperware to put the leftovers in after dinner. I take note of what is leftover and find the exact right sized storage containers and it is a perfect fit 99% of the time. I am not sure how to profit off of such a stupid skill, but I am a 10th degree black belt in food container spatial awareness. Note how each food item fits in perfectly.
If you come to my house for dinner, I think you will enjoy the food and wine, but if you watch me put away anything left over, you may be more impressed. Now how can I profit from it?
Quick Bites
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 280.44 points, or nearly 0.9%, to 31,510.43. The S&P 500 lost roughly 0.8% to end the day at 3,955.00, and the Nasdaq Composite fell about 0.6% to 11,816.20. The major averages were higher earlier in the day. What began as a strong month for the three major averages ended on a weaker note. The Dow finished August down nearly 4.1%, while the S&P and Nasdaq posted monthly losses of 4.2% and 4.6%, respectively. 2-year yield has exploded and has not been at 3.48% since 2007 prior to the Global Financial Crisis.
From Walmart to Nordstrom, retailers have a glut of inventory and are discounting items to clear out space for holiday goods. Many have already lowered profit expectations for the year and are working to cut costs as consumers are pulling back spending in categories such as apparel and home goods ahead of the key year-end shopping season. Best Buy Co. warned investors last month that shoppers are buying fewer TVs and other electronics as they pay more for gas and groceries. Macy’s Inc. CEO Jeff Gennette said last week customers across income levels are pulling back on purchases. This means sales and discounts, and my sale game is well documented from my piece, “You Had Me At Clearance Sale,” from December 2021.
An avid reader sent me this chart, which I found interesting. It shows price changes over 22 years as presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average inflation was basically 75%, but check out the things which were far higher: Hospital Services, College Tuition, Medical Care, Childcare, Wages, Food, Beverages and Housing. Given the last piece on the, “Crisis in US Healthcare,” the significantly higher costs of medical services are concerning, especially given my deductible is $20k. No one can deny electronics, and phones are cheaper and more powerful over the past twenty years.
The Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet unwind is set to ramp up this week, which means the central bank will finally begin unloading the Treasury bills it started amassing almost three years ago. As part of its broader plan to reduce its $9 trillion portfolio, the Fed will boost its monthly caps for the amount of Treasuries and holdings of mortgage-backed securities that it will let mature to $60 billion and $35 billion, respectively, while using its $326 billion stash of T-bills as filler when coupons run below the monthly level. Cantor’s Equity strategist, Johnston, was on CNBC and is “Extremely bearish with high conviction” suggesting the S&P could hit low 3000’s. Following are his comments as I summarized them and much is about the Fed. Listen to the Fed. Households and businesses will feel pain and that is not good for equities. It is not priced in and valuations are above trend due to rates. Fed funds are at a 15-year high vs 17x earnings. Johnston believes there are downside to earnings and sentiment and positioning is no longer bullish for stocks. Fed Funds going to 4% range. September seasonality is weak for the market and Quantitative Tightening is ramping up as outlined in the article above. On a related note, this CNBC headline, Fed’s Mester sees benchmark rate above 4% and no cuts at least through 2023, suggests the Fed may be even more hawkish.
Republicans head into the fall still in position to gain enough House seats for a majority, but a tumultuous summer has made their advantage appear a little smaller today — with a trend so far pointing toward narrow gains instead of a wave. Our CBS News Battleground Tracker estimates Republicans at 226 seats today, down from 230 estimated in July. A majority of 218 is needed to win control. The article goes into details on abortion rights, gas prices, Trump…and is worth a look. The “Red Wave” of a few months ago no longer appears to be the most likely outcome. A few months ago, some polls suggested that the Red Wave could result in 40+ new seats for Republicans. Today, some polls are suggesting the Right may not even gain control. Gas prices falling, inflation peaking, stocks rebounding, momentum in Biden’s political agenda, Roe v Wade and Trump’s latest round of issues have all contributed to the shift away from a Red Wave.
Other Headlines
Chinese tech giants post worst growth on record due to zero Covid policy
Europe faces terrible winters for the next 5 to 10 years without a gas price cap, minister warns
I write about this topic a great deal, because I do not feel the markets understand the depths of this issue which will be impacting economies for years. UK Inflation Could Top 22% Next Year, Warns Goldman Sachs. Multiple stories of companies facing massive electric bills with one coffee shop getting a $10k bill for the month and a bakery going from $12k/year to $64k/year in electric costs. Bankruptcies will be mounting soon. What is the impact on the US economy?
Elon Musk Says World Needs More Oil and Gas
Musk also urges continued use of nuclear power plants alongside renewable-energy investments as Europe faces a power crisis
I wrote about the CA EV mandate and found this story interesting as a result. No, I don’t believe the mandate is realistic.
Job openings top 11.2 million in July, well above estimate and nearly double the available workers
Note the job openings above and the growing higher paying layoffs below.
Snap, Wayfair, Robinhood, Peloton, Shopify, 7-Eleven, Vimeo, Tesla, Rivian, Gopuff, Re/Max, Microsoft, JPM, Compass, Redfin, Coinbase, Carvana, Reef, Better, Noom, Thrasio, Wells Fargo, Canopy, Food52, Cameo, PayPal, Gorillas, Netflix all mentioned with details of the layoffs.
Sanders has highest favorability among possible 2024 contenders
This statement makes me want to move to New Zealand. How is it that we live in the best country in the world and the most favorable candidate in 2024 would be 83 in 2024 and thinks a 97% high-end tax rate is not too high.
Trump Re-Ups His Demand to ‘Hold a New Election, NOW!’ In Bizarre Overnight TruthSocial Post
Top FBI Agent Resigns after Allegedly Thwarting Hunter Biden Investigation
More than 40% of Americans think civil war likely within a decade
I have a diverse reader base and hear from Progressives to almost Oath Keepers. I can tell you the divide is so great, I believe the chance of a Civil War is higher than I could have ever imagine. There is almost nothing the Left and Right agree on: Abortion, Taxes, Crime, Handouts, Vaccine/Mask Mandates, Lockdowns, LBTGQ issues, BLM, Border, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Healthcare…
Video shows young girl walk alligator on leash in Philadelphia park
The idiocy must stop. I have seen incredibly stupid “emotional support” animals on a plane. If I sit next to someone on an airplane who brings a support alligator, I will be going home with a new fancy belt.
Here’s why Wendy’s in Canada has given its iconic red-headed mascot gray hair
A Canadian media personality, LaFlamme, did not have her contract renewed and it is believed it is because she is 58 with gray hair, so Wendy’s is paying tribute.
Djokovic can’t play in the US Open or come to the US, but illegal immigrants with COVID are no problem? Does anyone else have a problem here?
Bodies at bottom of medieval well show 'real horror' of antisemitic violence
A mom ran her own shooting drill with her 5-year-old and the video went viral
This is a sad video of a mother giving her 5-year-old instructions on how to hide behind a bullet proof backpack in case of a school shooting incident. Disgusting sign of the times.
'Man of the Hole': Last of his tribe dies in Brazil
The life of this tribe is insane. The tribe was murdered by farmers and this man was the last person living off the land with no modern technologies. I am thinking that I would last 24 hours. Man of the Hole was because he dug deep holes to catch animals.
Crime
Teen arrested with loaded semiautomatic in stolen car cut loose by NYC judge with no bail
Washington Commanders' Brian Robinson 'in good spirits' while recovering from attempted robbery shooting (Carjacking)
An evicted man set fire outside his former apartment and then shot tenants as they fled, police say (Horrific Story)
Oregon store shooting: Multiple people dead after gunman opens fire at Safeway
Chilling video shows Florida deputy shoot suspect whose brother had just been gunned down
N.J. Man Who Sold Fake Tom Brady Championship Rings Gets 3 Years in Prison
People are shooting, robbing, punching, raping people and seem to pay no penalty, but sell some fake rings and you go to jail. If you get 3 years for fake rings, what do you get for mugging a cop? Attacking someone for a hate crime? Knocking out an elderly person? Shoplifting and being caught for the 100th time?
Video shows NYC cop punching woman in the face, to the ground — before cuffing her
Virus/Vaccine
Goldman Sachs to lift vaccination, Covid-19 requirements in most offices next month
Wuhan lab at centre of Covid cover-up claims detects brand NEW viru
Real Estate
I have heard from multiple Miami residents that new heavy hitters relocating to the area have been trying to muscle their weigh into schools with varying success. I heard one person went to a private school trying to get a bunch of people in on a package deal. I don’t think it went anywhere. When I moved down here, most schools were begging for students. Not so much today. I have stated it multiple times, find a school and then a house. We ain’t in NYC where there are 50 choices. Trust me.
After sluggish weeks, the luxury market is bouncing back in Manhattan.
Last week, 21 contracts were signed at $4 million and above. That’s 13 more than the eight signed the previous week, according to Olshan Realty’s weekly report. Those eight contracts represent the lowest totals since the week of Aug. 3, 2020.
Chicago buyer pays record $15M for planned Southwest Ranches home
I have not been out there in years, but it is WEST of WEST. I would not live here if you paid me. For $15mm, you can be close to the beach. Southwest ranches is 15 miles west of Dania Beach. You get more land out there, but I am a hard pass. The bugs, snakes and gators are big out there. Also hotter. When I was a kid, this was considered the wilderness.
Other R/E Headlines
Over 1 in 10 New Texas Residents Migrated There From California
Wait, high prices, high taxes, lots of homeless, high crime, mandates, earthquakes, fires, floods, droughts…and people left for Texas? What were they thinking?
Home prices weakened in June, but were still much higher than a year ago, says S&P Case-Shiller
Check out this WSJ article, “Shorting Zillow Is Your Best Bet in Housing This Year.” The stock is -65% over the past 12 months and -45% YTD, and this is a good indicator of the real estate market. The stock has not been this low since the peak of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.
US housing markets are slowing. Is Florida the exception?
I believe that most Florida markets are softening with more inventory, longer sale times, less offers and price reductions. Very high end Palm Beach and Miami seem to be holding up better. My community in Boca went from 71 homes for sale in 2017 to a low of 4 in December of 2021 and now has 31 for sale with multiple price reductions and things sitting for months which were selling in days.