Happy 18th Birthday Jack!-Time Flies
1-10-23
Opening Comments
My last note was about my social media “Reels” addiction. The most opened links were the Harvard psychologist questions for emotionally security and the missed family vacation due to a small passport tear. For those of you who did not watch the video of the day of my interview with Greg Waldorf, please do. I think it was one of the best yet. Those who watched it thought it was great.
The Rosen Report Jobs site is coming along after a couple of hiccups. I am starting to beta-test it this week and will be rolling it out in the coming weeks. The site is to help get college kids summer internships at no charge to either party. I feel a summer internship can change the trajectory of a young person’s career and ignite a fire. I am also doing paid searches across a wide array of sectors with the help of executive recruiting partners. I ask people to put resumes and bios on the site and any companies looking to hire interns or full-time employees to use it once it is up. For those who have expertise on such matters and are willing to take a look before we go live, please let me know, as I could use some feedback. I hope this becomes a hub for kids to get internships. I am spending money and time to help students and hope my readers who are in a position to hire consider using Rosen Report Jobs. Reach out at rosenreport@gmail.com if you want to check out the site before launch and place your resume, bio or job opening.
Markets
Gorman Legacy
Warren Buffett’s Life Lessons
Old Film Revived
Taylor Swift Sets Another Record
Geography of American Growth
Zillow Hot Markets for 2024
Multifamily Trending Down
America Hits New Office Vacancy Record
Happy 18th Birthday Jack!-Time Flies
For much of my life, I have wanted to be somewhere else. By that, I mean, when I was a kid, I wanted to be bigger, older, and stronger. I wanted to be 16 so I could drive. When I was in high school, I could not wait to be in college. In college, I was antsy to start working and making money. When I started my career, I longed to be promoted and take on more responsibility… Ultimately, I have never fully enjoyed any point in my life as much as I should have. In hindsight, I wish I would have appreciated the moment more than I allowed myself given my impatience and the belief that things would be so much better.
I was always told that time flies but did not realize it until I was older. It seems as though I was just in high school last year and it was over 35 years ago. When we had our first child, Jack, on January 10th, 2006, it was one hell of an exciting day. Initially, there was not much for me to do. The kid ate, slept, and crapped all day. I would feed him and read to him, but the feedback was limited… until it was not. Once my kids turned 9-12 months, all bets were off. Hearing the pitter-patter of little feet run to the door when I came home from work was amazing once they started walking.
If I could freeze time to any point in my life, it would be that period when my kids were 18 months to five years old. I was the hero, and the hugs were amazing. I would get calls in the afternoon, “Dad, when are you coming home to play with me?” Now that Jack is nearly 6’1” and my daughter is soon to be 17 years old and is 5’8,” there is no running to Dad to hug him when he comes home. There are far too many social media posts to make!
Jack and I developed a deep bond. I was trying to fill a void given my father died when I was five years old. I wanted to be present for my kids given I never really had a father. I ran home from work to see the kids before going back out for dinner with clients. I had Jack golfing in the hallway of our apartment at 18 months. Jack was at Bayonne and Atlantic with me on the course at an early age. In Florida, I was at our club with him for 5 hours or more a day when golf was his life.
We wore the same outfits. At one point in kindergarten, Jack refused to wear anything to school other than a blue suit. He wanted to be like his father. I said, “Buddy, you don’t need to wear a suit to school every day.” He would not listen. The knees were worn out and the elbows of the jacket were frayed but he would not wear anything else for a good chunk of the year. It was funny and a bit concerning at the same time. The kids at PS-6 on the Upper East Side did not think it was as cool as he did but that did not deter him. At that point, Dad was his hero.
Jack had his football phase. “Dad, I want to be a tight end in the NFL. I want to be Rob Gronkowski,” he said. Yes, Jack was a pretty good FLAG FOOTBALL receiver, but I had to level with him. “Son, your last name is Rosen, and your father is 5’9” and 165 lbs and your mom is 5’3” and 105 lbs. Gronk was playing at 6’6” and 265lbs. You might be able to be a kicker or owner, but nothing else is realistically on the table.” He was set on being Gronk until I put him into tackle football and a kid who was twice his size showed up (pictured below). Jack was 60lbs and the kid was 120lbs despite being 9 months younger. “Dad, do I have to tackle that kid?” When I nodded, he ran for the car and his NFL career was over before it began. Jack never took a hit.
Gronk was his idol and our dear friend, Debbie, got us to meet him when Gronk went to the Today Show. Over the years, Jack met a lot of pro athletes and has quite an extensive memorabilia collection. Gronk signed a bunch of hats and jerseys for Jack and the man could not have been nicer or larger.
Jack and Dad share some serious hair. I contend mine is better, but you can decide.
I took Jack on a lot of fishing excursions. My favorites were trips to the Bahamas on my boat where we also caught a ton of fish and had a lot of fun.
I have taught Jack everything and sadly, he is better than me at all of it. Golf, guitar, chess, and anything else came easy to him and the result was he beat me at all of it. The only thing I have on him today is lifting weights and pull-ups, but the laws of aging suggest it is only a matter of time before he crushes me there too.
Jack, you are an adult now. I am proud of what you have done, but this is only the beginning. The sky is the limit. You have 10 times the potential I had at your age. I was lucky in that I wanted a different life for myself, and I was willing to work hard to change my course. Watch my two-minute video about exceeding potential where I compare Shaq to Muggsy Bogues. Treat people well and never forget that anything is possible if you set your mind to it, as long as it is not a tight end in the NFL. Jack, I am looking forward to what the next 18 years bring. I wish you all the luck in the world and remember, I am always here for you. May the next 18 years bring you happiness and joy just the way you gave me.
For your birthday, you get to pick a car from the ones below. Yes, I am that kind of a dad. Maybe, if you took out the garbage and let me beat you in golf once in a while, you would get a better option. I think the girls will like you in the red racing car. I am just not sure how you can fit in at 6’1.”
Quick Bites
The start to the year saw a bit of a drawdown and then a decent rally to get back to roughly flat on the year. Although there is more talk of an economic slowdown, the jobs data was stronger than expected (revisions likely coming). Treasuries have been weaker in the first couple weeks of the year with the 2-Year +12bps to 4.37% and the+10-Year +18bps to 4.04%. Although Bitcoin fell almost 2% Wednesday, it is almost $46k and Ether is up to $2.5k.
I like success stories and feel Gorman’s 14-year run as CEO of Morgan Stanley was just that. There is a good WSJ article entitled, “James Gorman Just Wrapped Up a Successful Tenure at Morgan Stanley. It Almost Didn’t Turn Out That Way.” I used the Buyupside Return Calculator to calculate the chart below that outlines Gorman’s performance relative to the basket. Gorman led MS to acquire Smith Barney, Solium Capital, E*Trade and Eaton Vance. The market capitalization grew from $40bn when he began as CEO to $153bn during his tenure. When he took over, MS Wealth and Asset Management oversaw $1.6 trillion and today they have $6 trillion+. He had his fair share of issues (downgrades, regulatory pressures around improperly tipping off hedge fund clients, and questions over controls over money laundering). We cannot forget the $911mm loss on Archegos, but in the end, his returns stack up well and he left MS in FAR BETTER shape than when he took over. In speaking with senior MS employees, it seems as though Gorman changed the direction and culture of the company through sound leadership.
Warren Buffet is a hero among millions of investors. An avid reader sent me this article, “Warren Buffett Says 3 Choices in Life Separate Those Who Achieve From Those Who Dream,” and there are some good takeaways.
Condition yourself to say “no” to most things
I need to do better at this. In an attempt to help, I say “yes” to too many people which leaves me scrambling.
Choose people operating on integrity
Do not stray here. Only surround yourself with high-integrity people.
Build up your knowledge daily
Again, I concur. Reading, surrounding yourself with smart people, asking questions, and constantly growing are imperative.
My 89-year-old Uncle Harold sent me this story and I agree with him that it was quite interesting. The article outlines a company that develops old film and helps families uncover lost footage. In one story, the film stopped being made in 1983 (Kodacolor II) but Film Rescue International in the small town of Indian Head, Saskatchewan was able to develop it. “I like to say we open time capsules for a living,” said Greg Miller, company co-founder and a frequent fielder of random phone calls from folks in far-flung places keen to unlock a potential family treasure. Film Rescue has a global reach — and reputation — with a collection office in the Netherlands and another in northern Montana. Every few weeks, a batch of 200 to 400 rolls of old camera and home movie film appears. If you have old film lying around, send it to Film Rescue International.
Taylor Swift did it again by beating Elvis for most weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 among solo artists. The most recent chart, which was announced by Billboard on Sunday, marked 68 cumulative weeks of Ms. Swift’s 13 chart-topping albums holding the No. 1 spot. She surpassed the “King” himself after her most recent album, “1989 (Taylor’s Version),” topped the U.S. album chart for the fifth nonconsecutive time. Only the Beatles — with 132 weeks at No. 1 — have more weeks than Ms. Swift, Billboard noted. What is scary is Swift is only 34 and can make hits for another 20 years or more. I wrote a piece in June of 2023 entitled, “Why I Love Taylor Swift,” which you can find here. I wonder the wrath the NYT will feel from Swift’s 535mm followers after the opinion piece questioning Swift’s sexuality.
Israel
Israeli strike on Lebanon kills senior commander in elite Hezbollah unit
I am at a loss for words. Claudine Gay refused to denounce antisemitism and then was caught plagiarizing nearly 50 times.
Oil prices could spike 20%, possibly double if Middle East conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz
The oil and shipping story could be inflationary. Let’s keep an eye on how these unfold.
Anti-Israel protesters block traffic at three NYC bridges, Holland Tunnel
Record-Breaking Surge in Civil Rights Complaints of Campus Antisemitism Swamp Education Department
I am a fan of Michael Ramirez’ ability to illustrate powerful messages and occasionally include his drawings. I liked this one calling out Iran, a country this administration has not done enough to stop.
Iranian woman whipped 74 times for refusing to wear hijab
Iran is up to no good at every turn. They fund terrorists, treat their citizens poorly, shoot citizens who protest and countless other bad acts. Look at the pictures of this woman in the link.
Secret synagogue tunnels are causing chaos in New York. What’s really going on?
A lot of people hate DeSantis and Florida. As a Jew, tell me what you think relative to other governors.
Other Headlines
Congress reaches a deal on how much to spend for 2024 as shutdown deadline nears
I contend that we need to control spending and running $1-2 trillion deficits in perpetuity is not the answer. The US last balanced a budget in Clinton’s final year of Presidency.
Global economy set for its worst half-decade of growth in 30 years-World Bank
DoubleLine’s Gundlach sees ‘very painful’ economic downturn, S&P 500 may be forming ‘double top’
He highlighted the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields, where 2-years yield more than 10-years, and the fact that it has been in the process of reversing.
The US consumer has been far more resilient than I expected. Lots of good charts in the link. I just question how long it can last. However, Consumer spending rose in December to end solid holiday season.
Largest U.S. radio company Audacy files for bankruptcy protection
The restructuring will slash debt by 80% to approximately $350mm.
Elon Musk Has Used Illegal Drugs, Worrying Leaders at Tesla and SpaceX
Some executives and board members fear the billionaire’s use of drugs—including LSD, cocaine, ecstasy, mushrooms and ketamine—could harm his companies. Wow, the WSJ article suggests multiple insiders are concerned about Musk’s drug use. The story was picked up by the Post.
SEC’s account compromise was ‘not due to any breach of X’s systems,’ company says
Used car prices expected to stabilize in 2024 after two years of decreases from record highs
Special counsel probe uncovers new details about Trump's inaction on Jan. 6
Dan Scavino, former Trump deputy chief of staff’s comments to Jack Smith’s team do not read well for Trump. I firmly believe Trump should have spoken up more vocally on Jan 6th to stop the pandemonium, but he refused the requests of his closest confidants.
'Your Jaw Is Dropping!': CNN Commentator Stunned By New 'God Made Trump' Video
Here is an excerpt from the video posted on Truth Social: And on June 14th, 1946, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, ‘I need a caretaker.’ So God gave us Trump. God said, ‘I need somebody willing to get up before dawn, fix this country, work all day, fight the Marxist, eat supper then go to the Oval Office and stay past midnight and a meeting of the heads of state.’ So God made Trump. Then, Trump wants the economy to crash in 2024 under Biden. We can find a more stable candidate for each party.
Biden's Malarkey-Filled Speech in Charleston Did Not Go Well
Biden has made so many outrageous claims, it is hard to keep track. Here we go again. Biden said, “I’ve spent more time in the Bethel AME Church in Wilmington, Delaware, than most people I know, black or white, have spent in that church because that’s where I started a civil rights movement…” He is unfit for office. He believes he started the civil rights movement.
Biden is not breaking through the ‘MAGA wall,’ Clyburn warns
Rep Clyburn from SC may have had the biggest hand in getting Biden elected in 2020 after he backed Biden.
CNN Poll: Haley trims Trump’s lead to single digits in New Hampshire
Watchdog finds 81% of all political late-night show jokes in 2023 targeted conservatives
To be clear, I have no problem attacking politicians, as they rarely add value and should be challenged. However, I would like to see a little more balance. 88% of Kimmel’s jokes were directed at conservatives. Kimmel roasted former President Trump 762 times and dinged President Biden 164 times while Vice President Kamala Harris was only made fun of once. He joked about the three eldest Trump children a combined 101 times compared to hitting Hunter Biden 9 times. How is it humanly possible to only make fun of VP Harris one time given she has the lowest net approval ratings of any VP in history and is among with worst VPs of all time? How can you make fun of the Trump kids more than Hunter who is a crack addict who admitted to smoking parmesan cheese, left his laptop with a ton of compromising information, used prostitutes, guns, kicked out of the military…. Make fun of Trump kids, but how can you barely call out Hunter who has thousands of comprising photos and was paid countless millions by Ukraine, Russia, and China…?
Salacious reading. She recanted everything. Now, she is back saying she “stands by them.” She claims her family was threatened which is why she recanted. Giuffre claims she sex with a second prince and that she saw Clinton and Gore on “pedo island.” Jeffrey Epstein Accuser Claims She Had Sex With Ex-Victoria’s Secret CEO Multiple Times. The last couple days have seen some new allegations.
The Pentagon adds new details about Austin’s secretive hospital stay and the delay in telling Biden
The Defense Secretary was in ICU and the President did not know. How is this humanly possible? Someone needs to lose their job over this one. He was treated for Prostate Cancer and developed an infection.
Fatal NYC migrant stabbing was over woman — in tent city filled with armed rivals, split ‘camps
Migrant mob makes grab for $5,300 in designer sunglasses from NYC Bloomingdale’s
In 2023, at least 95K migrants came to NYC in the 1st 9 months of the year. Sorry Gov, not all are upstanding citizens. Maybe if we had a real border policy, cities such as NYC would be in a better place.
NYC students forced to go remote as city houses nearly 2K migrants at their school
Storm forced migrants from tents into a Brooklyn school.
Gov. Hochul vows crackdown on shoplifting scourge as NY businesses plead for help
University Of Michigan Estimated To Have Over 500 DEI Jobs, Costing Over $30 Million A Year
The university has at least 241 employees whose main duties “are to provide DEI programming and services as either their exclusive or primary job responsibility. As an aside, CONGRATS to Michigan on the big win.
Scientists find huge levels of nanoplastics in bottled water
You drink bottled water to be safer and it is full of plastic?
Reduce your risk of dementia — cut out these everyday bad habits most of us are guilty of
Being active is one way to help. Another is solid sleep.
LG unveils 'world's first' transparent OLED TV
Amazing. Wait two years and the price will fall 70%.
Tiger Woods ends Nike partnership after 27 years
Tiger pulled the plug. Not clear who steps in.
US Animal Shelters in ‘Crisis’ From Surge in Unwanted Dogs
I remember peak COVID when puppies were on back-order going for $4,000 when they were $1,500 pre-pandemic. Higher prices for care and food are not helping either.
Real Estate
An interesting article entitled, “The New Geography of American Growth-How the Pandemic has Reshaped US Economic Growth—Leading to Booms in Florida, Texas, and throughout the American South and Mountain West.” Lots of amazing charts. Florida wins again!
I was surprised by Zillow’s list of the hottest housing markets for 2024. The company said the ranking examines the nation's 50 most populous metros and takes into account Zillow's forecast for local home value growth and the speed at which home sellers are entering contracts with buyers. Also considered:
Expected home value appreciation from Dec. 2023 through Nov.
2024. Job growth per new home permitted
Growth in owner-occupied households
Good article entitled, “Multifamily Permitting Still Trending Down,” sent by a reader. The pace of multifamily permitting is continuing its declining trend that began in mid-2022. The November seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for multifamily permits fell 9.6% from October’s rate and 21.3% from last year to 435,000 units. That figure is well below the annual total for not seasonally adjusted multifamily permits of 513,600 units.
Another reader sent me this WSJ article entitled, “Offices Around America Hit a New Vacancy Record.” A staggering 19.6% of office space in major U.S. cities wasn’t leased as of the fourth quarter, according to Moody’s Analytics, up from 18.8% a year earlier. That is slightly above the previous records of 19.3% set in 1986 and 1991 and the highest number since at least 1979, which is as far back as Moody’s data go.
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Rosen Report™ #646 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen
