Opening Comments
My last newsletter was a fun piece about my NBA dreams. The most opened links were the #1 job interview question to help you uncover a red flag, and the 3 ways to become more influential at work.
One reader responded about my wife’s incredibly expensive dental work and suggested flying to Eastern Europe to get it done for a fraction of the price while having a vacation.
The Rosen family will be doing our first college tours in the coming days across a half dozen schools in the Southeast. I am sure I will be writing about my adventures and will have some food reviews to go along with it. One of the cities will be New Orleans and I made some reservations at James Beard award-winning restaurants. I am also told Cachon Butcher is amazing and may try to check it out. I will be speaking at the Closing Bell Series at Florida State University on Tuesday as well.
The futures conference was back at the Boca Resort this week. Last year, I wrote a piece called Party Crasher about me going to the event and hanging out at the bar with the various bankers. It was another great event for me catching up with old friends and making new connections. I saw some of my favorite people at the event (Alex, Billy, Tom, Brad…). Lots of fun. NETWORKING.
Avid Rosen Report reader, Max Greyserman, had his best PGA Tour finish Sunday firing a four-day score of -14 and tying for 15th place. I did a podcast with Max a few months ago and hope to see him climbing up leaderboards all year. You go, Max! I think he would admit that his solid play has a lot to do with religiously reading the Rosen Report, as it is statistically proven to make you better at everything.
Markets
Valuations & Market Breadth
Biden Budget Proposal
Click Farms
Puppy Market
$28mm NYC PH Lawsuit Disaster
South Florida High-End Remains Hot
Miami Office Cooling?
What Does $1mm Buy You Today
Video of the Day-Amazing Albert Einstein Story
I found this short video from Derik Fay on Instagram. He tells a short story about how Albert Einstein’s chauffer filled in for him during a speech as Einstein was sick and the chauffer had heard it countless times. It is a great story about seizing opportunity, knowing your limitations, and when to bring in experts. I am 100% in agreement with Derik’s conclusion.
The Power of Networking
I am going to be making some bold statements in my piece today about the importance and power of networking. In my career, I have come across thousands of professionals and business leaders. I believe many had skills that I did not possess. However, I have come across few who have my network or my ability to connect with people and bring them together. Given the new technology available over the last twenty years, especially social media, networking and connecting with people has never been easier. Think about how hard it was to network in 1990 relative to 2024.
I believe the power of networking and my presentation skills have helped me dramatically in my professional career and personal life. When I make my presentations across the country and talk about what is in the art of possible. I always speak about networking and going out of your way to make connections. One of the main reasons I continue to write the Rosen Report for hours every day for free is the network that I continue to build. I am one phone call or email away from almost anyone. I not only make connections, but I nurture them with regular follow-ups via email, text, and calls. When I have a long drive, I make a list of people I want to call before leaving and go down the list to call on my drive. I had a few amazing experiences in short order in February/early March on the networking front.
I spoke at the SF Net Conference in Vegas and worked the rooms at every opportunity making new friends that have led to multiple investment opportunities and important connections.
I was invited to the JPM Leveraged Finance Conference in Miami which I had not been to for years. For those new readers, I was responsible for the Credit Trading Business at JPM for many years and was part of the conference. I reconnected with hundreds of former colleagues, clients, and friends as well as former investors in my hedge fund. It felt so good to see people thriving that I had hired 20 or more years prior. I like to believe that my leadership and mentoring helped them to achieve some of their success, and I take pride in the impressive accomplishments of my team.
Through the networking at the event, I have had multiple lunches, drinks, dinners and calls with people that will lead to business and the re-kindling of friendships. I cannot stress enough the importance of networking from a business and life perspective.
In a crazy story, my good friend, Brian Gaister (CEO of Pennington Partners Multi-Family Office) invited me to a party in Miami on March 1st. I met him through 3i Members and he is an avid reader of the Rosen Report often sending me comments about my writing. I thought he would be going to this party given he invited me, and it turns out he was already back in Houston. I went solo to a stunning waterfront home on Sunset Island owned by a remarkable managing partner of the Miami office of Reed Smith Law Firm. Constantine and his wife could not have been more welcoming and lovely allowing me into their home. The party was one of the best networking events in recent memory. Peter Thiel, Mr. Wonderful/Kevin O’Leary, Kam Ghaffarian (who just landed the craft on the moon), numerous CEOs, Hedge Fund Managers, Venture Investors, and interesting people were in attendance. I was humbled to be invited to such an impressive group of people and made a ton of connections and new friends.
I introduced myself to as many people as I possibly could and the attendees were incredibly friendly. I am emailing and speaking with various people I met that evening and am constantly trying to build out my network.
One impressive new contact is the young CEO of Mount Sinai Hospital in Miami who has connected me with an amazing Lipid specialist that I hope to see in the next couple of weeks.
In a funny coincidence, I drove to Miami Monday am to meet a new reader who also helps college kids. When I was leaving, I saw my party host from a couple of weeks prior, Constantine.
I go out of my way to help people who reach out and open up my vast database of contacts to help people. I believe in doing the right thing and mentor dozens of college students/young professionals each year hoping to help improve outcomes.
In the end, the power of your network is important, and I feel strongly that you should all step out of your comfort zone and make connections. I randomly reach out to my readers to learn about who they are and what they do. I have developed incredible new relationships based on that activity. Trust me, you never know where your network may lead. It has never been easier to connect the technology literally at your fingertips. Just do it.
Quick Bites
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed .4% in February and 3.2% over last year, which was slightly higher than expectations of 3.1% over last year. Stocks rallied post the CPI data and Nvidia jumped 3%. However, stocks were mixed on Wednesday and Nvidia fell 2% with the tech sector underperforming. Treasury yields are higher over the past week given inflation data with the 2-year at 4.6% (+6bps over 5 days) and the 10-year at 4.19% (+9bps over 5 days). Bitcoin and Ether continued to rise with BTC setting a new record of $73.6k. I am now up 50% on my BTC purchases as it has rallied 65% YTD and the discount from Greyscale Bitcoin Trust has collapsed after being as large as 50%. Oil is back to $80/barrel after Ukraine struck refineries in Russia and is now +11% YTD.
Interesting Bloomberg article entitled, “Bubble Angst Belied by Big-Tech Weaklings, Broader S&P 500 Gains.” The article is balanced as it outlines valuations and the improved market breadth. There’s ample reason to wonder whether shares have advanced at an unsustainable pace: The S&P 500 Index has closed at record highs 16 times this year, accounting for about a third of all trading days.” Several of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks have sputtered, showing that investors aren’t throwing money at the market with abandon. The muted reaction to initial public offerings of late also backs up that notion. What’s more, an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 just hit a historic high, indicating the rally is broadening out. And valuations of the benchmark’s biggest stocks are well below levels seen for the market leaders at the height of previous market cycles.
Comprehensive Bloomberg article entitled, “Biden’s $7.3 Trillion Budget Sets Up Tax Fight With Trump. President Joe Biden’s $7.3 trillion fiscal 2025 budget proposal lays out a second-term vision that would deliver more services, middle-class tax breaks and price controls to voters funded through higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations. The budget would result in a $1.8 trillion deficit even with higher taxes next year. Biden claims his budget will reduce the deficit by $3 trillion which is smoke and mirrors. His budget shows massive deficits but is an improvement over the last CBO projections. The OMB estimates the Federal debt would grow by almost $18 trillion by 2034 under the Biden plan. There is no chance this budget will pass and this WSJ Opinion article outlines more of the delusion. Those with incomes under $400,000 wouldn’t see an increase in their federal payments and would benefit from a series of proposed credits. Biden has proposed giving homeowners $400 a month for the next two years to offset high mortgage rates, making permanent a subsidy for those purchasing their own health care and fully restoring a pandemic-era child tax credit for a year. Those costly programs would be offset by raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, setting a minimum corporate tax rate at 21% for corporations valued at $1 billion or more and quadrupling the tax companies must pay for stock buybacks. Biden would also increase the cap on payroll taxes to boost Social Security. Biden imposes a minimum tax on billionaires – including on unrealized capital gains – of 25%, which would bring in an estimated $500 billion in tax revenue over the next decade. He is proposing taxing capital gains at the same rate as wages for those making more than $1 million. Many of these proposals are absurd including 6,000 earmarks costing taxpayers almost $13bn. Biden refuses to rein in spending and wants to tax his way to prosperity while asking taxpayers to fund the bill for overly woke initiatives. He wants to tax billionaires on UNREALIZED gains, yet another horrible idea and one impossible to consider in my opinion. Biden calls for tax hikes to shore up Social Security as Trump floats entitlement cuts. If you raise my taxes, you must cut spending. I am FULLY SUPPORTIVE of entitlement cuts (means testing and raising the age). Entitlement reform MUST be on the table. Biden blasted Trump “Not on my watch,” over suggested cuts to entitlements. This is a link to the Post take on the Biden budget. This link is to the chart below explaining the ballooning debt. Biden, you have a spending problem and the weight of the debt, interest and entitlement programs are crushing us.
Crazy CNN story entitled, “Photographer steps inside Vietnam’s shadowy ‘click farms,’ about the enterprises that help clients artificially boost online traffic and social media engagement. With the proliferation of social media, click farms ballooned in number in recent years. “It only takes one person to control large amounts of phones,” Latham (photographer) said. “One person can very quickly (do the work of) 10,000. It’s both solitary and crowded.” At the farms Lathan visited, individuals were usually in charge of particular social media platforms. For instance, one “farmer” would be responsible for mass posting and commenting on Facebook accounts, or setting up YouTube platforms where they post and watch videos on loop. The photographer added that TikTok is now the most popular platform at the click farms he visited. The click farmers mostly advertised their services online for less than one cent per click, view or interaction. The pictures in the link help to explain what is going on. More smoke and mirrors. What you think you see on clicks is not necessarily real.
A reader sent me a chart of the most popular dogs by state. I happened to run into the owner of the local puppy store, Heavenly Puppies and asked him some questions. Pre-pandemic, he was selling dogs for an average of $2,000 each, and during the pandemic, the average price went over $4,000 with demand more than tripling. He could not procure the dogs to meet the demand when everyone was locked at home. Now, demand is back to pre-COVID levels and the average price is $2,500. Many animal shelters are overflowing with dogs as back-to-the-office policies forced thousands to give up pets they bought during the pandemic. Also contributing to the shelter overcrowding is inflation and the cost of owning a pet. I want a puppy and look at these damn cute dogs constantly. My cream-colored silk rugs won’t be happy with a puppy.
Israel
How the Gaza Ministry of Health (MOH) Fakes Casualty Numbers
This article proves the data out of Gaza is fake. Anyone with basic math skills will understand the data is manipulated if you read this article. I am not saying civilians have not died. I am saying the numbers out of Gaza are not possible. Read the article to find the numerous inconsistencies. The Gaza MOH is not to be trusted. Netanyahu says at least 13,000 'terrorists' among Palestinians killed.
Hezbollah fires over 100 rockets at Israel; US terror threat ‘on another level’, warns FBI
Sharpening criticism, Biden says Netanyahu ‘hurting Israel more than he’s helping’
Mass exodus threatened by chief rabbi if haredim are forced into military service
Deaf Jewish Students at Gallaudet University Forced to Hide From Antisemitic Mob
Other Headlines
I put the odds of success at a low number given the disasters that continue to occur at Citi. 30 years ago, it was a monster and it is disaster.
Corporate Transparency Act Declared Unconstitutional In New Case
The Corporate Transparency Act, a burdensome new law that would require some 32 million closely held businesses to file invasive information with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, has been declared unconstitutional.
EV euphoria is dead. Automakers trumpet consumer choice for U.S. car shoppers
More Americans Are Treating Their 401(k)s Like Cash Machines
Consumer spending rebounded in February, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor
Oracle shares rise on better-than-expected quarterly earnings
Dollar Tree posts downbeat results, plans to shut nearly 1,000 stores (Stock-8%)
Tesla and Apple's China sales plunge as Chinese told to ditch Western products
Why it will be tough for Biden to defeat Trump
This is from CNN, not a Right-leaning new organization.
Yahoo News/YouGov poll: No State of the Union bump for Biden
‘Trump Employee 5,’ who unknowingly helped move classified documents, speaks out
Trump’s Jaw-Dropping Praise For Nazi Leader Adolf Hitler Revealed By Ex-Chief of Staff John Kelly
American politics is in the midst of a racial realignment.
FBI director warns of ‘very dangerous threats’ at border, smuggling network with 'ISIS ties'
The comedic part is many of the “environmentalists” take private planes to climate summits and are driven around in gas-guzzling Suburbans but they don’t want you to eat wood-fired pizza.
House passes bill that could lead to a TikTok ban; fight shifts to the Senate
I want TikTok banned-I do not trust the owners and it is damaging to kids.
San Francisco ties welfare to drug-screening, boosts police powers in stunning tough-on-crime shift
When I frequently write about the absurdity of soft-on-crime overly woke policies, I get cancelled. My unsubscribes shoot up. Now, we are seeing the pendulum inch back towards rational thinking. It was so obvious.
Teen girl has head repeatedly bashed into concrete in gruesome, caught-on-camera brawl
What are the consequences? The girl is in critical condition and was convulsing after her head was smashed in. The girl who was caught on tape doing this should spend serious time in jail.
Nurse assaulted by madman with history of attacks on medical staff blames NYC’s ‘soft-on-crime laws’
An illegal immigrant arrested 23 times and has continually attacked hospital workers. Why is he on the streets? Why is he not deported?
$500,000 for a state-employed nurse!? No wonder NY’s budget is off the charts
I have zero faith in state, local, or Federal governments to get to the right answer and spend my money properly. The waste is disgusting. The article outlines all kinds of NY state employees (439) who made over $100k in OVERTIME alone sometimes tripling or quadrupling pay.
A Harvard nutritionist and a neuroscientist agree this is the No. 1 food for a healthy brain
I’m a doctor — lose weight by adding these 5 foods to your diet
Non-starchy vegetables; olive oil; full-fat dairy; nuts and seeds; and lean protein. Lots of good tips in the article about specific foods and olive oil. I am addicted to olive oils and buy 100% from Eataly.
Daily marijuana users 25 percent more likely to have a heart attack
Beverly Hills middle school expels 5 students after deepfake nude photos incident
Good. There are costs to stupidity.
Airliner strays off course after both pilots fell asleep for 30 minutes midair
50 people are injured by a ‘strong movement’ on a plane traveling from Australia to New Zealand
The global incidents of crazy airline-related issues is growing.
I am not sure what is scarier, the implications of AI, or relying on low-IQ politicians who cannot spell AI to help save humanity.
Airlines Want to Stop ‘Travel Hack’ JSX From Luring Rich Flyers Away
I have never flown JSX but have heard mixed reviews with some complaining of older planes.
South Carolina college offering over $80K in Division I scholarships to cornhole players
This is tossing a beanbag into a hole. When will the lunacy end? It is what drunk people do for fun at the BBQ—hardly a sport.
Pentagon says no evidence of a UFO cover-up
No Dead alien bodies. No crashed alien craft and no cover up according to the Pentagon. I am devastated. I am convinced we are not alone. Again, I am available to be abducted for a week to learn about alien culture.
Haiti’s leader resigns as gangs run rampant through country engulfed in crisis
Real Estate
A brand-new, $28 million penthouse in the sky in Carnegie Hill was so badly built it will take $9 million worth of repairs to fix an array of serious safety problems and prevent the owners from moving in for at least a year, they contend in a lawsuit. The descriptions of 1228 Madison Ave., a co-op between 88th and 89th streets whose facade was designed by famed architect Robert A.M. Stern, boast of “confident architecture” and “elegance.” The list of issues is crazy, especially considering a $28mm price tag and new construction.
The market in South Florida is hot. In my community, Royal Palm, we have seen 3 homes close for over $13mm and four more go under contract in 2024 over $13mm. The one listed for $44.9mm recently went under contract (highest listing price in RP) and a good number of homes from Miami to Jupiter have sold in excess of $15mm in recent weeks. There was a PH in the Shore Club that sold last week for over $120mm. Shell Bay sold $110mm of units in the past few months. If you want to find value, buying land and building or buying a house that needs work is the best way to create value. I spoke with a big builder in South Florida who told me that construction prices are coming down and crews are easier to source given higher rates have reduced the number of new projects.
WSJ article entitled, “Miami’s Office Market Was Red-Hot. Now Its Tallest Planned Tower Can’t Fill Its Space.” The article is decently negative on Miami office space. The challenges swirling around a skyscraper known as One Brickell City Centre, which at around 1,000-feet high would be Miami’s tallest corporate tower, show how the city’s once-sizzling office market is starting to cool. New York developer Related Cos. and Swire Properties , an international development firm founded by the British Swire family, are struggling to find an anchor tenant roughly a year after the groundbreaking. Now, Miami’s exceptionalism appears to be fading. Leasing activity in the Miami office market was down 25% last year from 2022, according to commercial real-estate services firm JLL . Sublease vacancy increased by 66% through the end of the year, a sign that existing tenants want to cut back on space. The article outlined sky rocketing housing and insurance costs making it harder for companies to relocate. That coupled with challenges getting kids into school are definitely a factor.
This article is entitled, “What $1M will fetch you in the world's most expensive real estate markets.” "There is significant variation in prime prices across luxury residential markets, which often surprises buyers," said Kate Everett-Allen, head of international residential and country research at Knight Frank. The report also showed that it's getting harder to crack into the 1% of wealth in the U.S. and across the rest of the world. You now need a net worth of at least $5.8 million to be part of that small but elite group. That is a notable 12% increase from the $5.1 million needed just one year ago. By comparison, Americans needed a net worth of $4.4 million to receive the coveted 1% status in 2022.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #664 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
Thanks for the kind words. Glad you enjoyed the report and the Closing Bell discussion. Hope you continue to enjoy the report.
The insights from 'The Power of Networking' were great. I had never considered making a list of friends, peers, and family to catch up with during a long commute-- Will definitely apply this on my next long-distance drive. All in all, this was a very insightful report, and it was great hearing from you today at Closing Bell. Thanks for the invaluable advice.