Opening Comments
My last note was about my fishing trip to Louisiana. The most opened links were the Steve Jobs 10-Minute Rule link and the video of Hezbollah Leader, Nasrallah’s bunker or what is left of it.
Happy New Year to all my Jewish readers.
I want to thank my readers for following my newsletter. Many of you contribute by sending me new stories or feedback and I appreciate it. I literally get hundreds of emails each week from readers just with story ideas. THANK YOU. Please send them to rosenreport@gmail.com. I write this newsletter solo, but my reader’s insights and assistance, make my life easier. Remember, some email servers truncate the note and you need to hit, “View entire message” to see the whole letter.
The Rosen family went back to Corvina (Boca Raton) for the Early Bird Special which is 50% off EVERYTHING from 4-6 on weekends or 4-7 during the week. The place was packed at 5:30 pm on Saturday night. I spent $200 (including tip & 2 glasses of wine) for 4 people with appetizers and four entrees. The fish is pretty darn solid for Boca. Pictured below is part of the order. For 50% off, you gotta go. Julia also got salmon that I must have missed on the pictures. This special is a summer deal.
Mike Cembalest published his latest “Eye on the Market” showing candidate policy comparisons over time. He calls this election, the “most polarized” in 100 years. As usual, Cembalest goes deep into subjects and I always learn from reading his pieces.
Markets
Port Strike
Stressed Power Grids
Auto Insurance Rates
US Productivity Gains & Impact of AI
US Reliance on Government Aid
Plane and Boat Storage Prices
Beckham N. Bay Road Purchase
Other Real Estate Headlines
Video of the Day-Cristano Ronoldo & His Big Break
Amazing story from Cristano Ronoldo and how he got his start. This is a must-watch about a lucky break when he was a kid. He has gone on to be one of the top soccer players of all time due to the friendship of a kid who believed in him. Here is a list of Ronaldo’s accomplishments as a soccer player.
Best Movie Songs
I love movies and music. The list I have created will surely find some folks agreeing and others believing I missed some great ones. Check out my list, not all of which have lyrics, and let me know what you think. Which ones did I miss or should I not have included? I have the song, movie, artist, year and a short comment for each of my top 20. The links generally have the movie scene where I could find it. I am sure they will bring back memories.
Mrs. Robinson-The Graduate-Simon & Garfunkel-1968-What a movie, with Dustin Hoffman and Ann Bancroft. One of the best movie songs ever on anyone’s list. Hoffman was 29 years old and played 21-year-old Benjamin and was nominated for an Oscar for it.
Rocky-Gonna Fly Now-Bill Conti-1976-This is a brilliant series with the best being the original. The cast of Stallone, Carl Weathers, Burgess Merideth, Talia Shire…was amazing. Such a simple theme with a powerful message.
Don’t You Forget About Me-Breakfast Club-1985-Simple Minds-Great John Hughes film that brings back memories for me. I saw them in concert in Miami in the mid-1980s.
![The Breakfast Club [DVD]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Mww7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c9193a5-2dd7-47bf-987a-9030f884de9e_672x1000.jpeg "The Breakfast Club [DVD]")
I’ve Had the Time of My Life-Dirty Dancing-1987-Bill Medley/Jennifer Warnes-No one puts baby in the corner is the line of the movie.
Danger Zone-Top Gun-1986-Kenny Loggins-I was in high school when this came out and wanted to become a Navy pilot after watching it. Tom Cruise sure was cool before he lost his mind.
Arthur’s Theme-Arthur-1981-Christopher Cross-Arthur is my favorite Dudley Moore movie and I loved Sir John Gielgud. I memorized most of the lines. I saw Cross in concert 5 years ago. Let’s just say his voice isn’t what it once was.
Somebody’s Baby-Fast Times at Ridgemont High-Jackson Browne (1982)-I saw this movie at the drive-in when I was 13 years-old. It is a great movie with an amazing cast. Somebody’s Baby is my favorite Jackson Browne song of all time.
Lose Yourself-8 Mile-Eminem-2002- I thought this was a good movie and Lose Yourself is by far my favorite Eminem song. I love jumping rope to this song.
Pretty Woman-Pretty Woman-1990-Roy Orbison-What a great movie with Julia Roberts and Richard Gere. So many memorable scenes. Roberts was launched to superstar status from this flick.
Footloose-Footloose-1984-Kenny Loggins-Kevin Bacon was 25 years old in the movie. Loggins is the only artist with two songs in my top 20.
Jaws-1975-John Williams-There are no lyrics, just the tune when the shark is getting ready to attack. After watching this movie at 6 years old, I was scared to go into the pool or bathtub.
Grease-Grease-Frankie Valli 1978-So many good songs from this classic from Olivia Newton-John Travolta, Frankie Avalon and others. I could have picked a half dozen from this movie alone.
Somewhere Over the Rainbow-Wizard of Oz-Judy Garland-1939-This is an all-time classic and one of the best movies ever. Interestingly, Garland’s daughter, Liza Minelli, was in one of my other favorites, Arthur.
Blaze of Glory-Young Guns II 1990-Bon Jovi-This movie starred Emilio Estevez and the Blaze of Glory is my favorite Bon Jovi song.
Kiss From a Rose-Batman Forever-1995-Seal-The movie had Val Kilmer, Jim Carrey, Tommy Lee, Nicole Kidman, & Chris O’Donnell.
Happy- Despicable Me 2-Pharrell Williams-2014-I love the Despicable Me franchise and vividly recall watching it with my kids. Steve Carell is so funny and this song is incredibly uplifting.
Call Me-American Gigolo-Blondie-1980-Richard Gere played a stud in this classic with Lauren Hutton. I vividly remember him hanging upside down in those boots from the ceiling doing exercises.
Purple Rain-Purple Rain-Prince-1984-A ton of hits from this Prince movie. Prince is arguably one of the best musicians in history. He played at least 27 instruments and his guitar lead of my While My Guitar Gently Weeps is my all-time favorite.
The Power of Love-Back to the Future-1985-Huey Lewis-This was a huge movie for me at the height of Michael J. Fox’ career.
James Bond Theme Song-Nicholas Dodd-(No Lyrics). Iconic is the word that comes to mind.
![The Breakfast Club [DVD]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Mww7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c9193a5-2dd7-47bf-987a-9030f884de9e_672x1000.jpeg "The Breakfast Club [DVD]")
Special Mentions
Oh Yeah-Ferris Bueller’s Day Off-1986
Stain’ Alive-Saturday Night Fever-Bee Gees-1978
Streets of Philadelphia-Springsteen-1994
I Will Always Love You-The Bodyguard-1992
What a Feeling-Flashdance-Irene Cara-1983
Gangsta’s Paradise-Dangerous Minds-Coolio-1995
The Way We Were-The Way We Were-Streisand-1974
Pink Panther Theme Song-Henry Mancini-1963
Quick Bites
We just ended a strong quarter for stocks. Powell signaled the Fed won’t be as aggressive cutting rates. “This is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” Powell said. This news pushed stocks lower and Treasury yields higher on Monday. However, by the close Monday, stocks were in the green. Tuesday saw a sharp pullback in stocks over the escalation in the Middle East and the longshoremen strike at ports from New England to Texas. Tech underperformed on Tuesday. Despite Tuesday’s move lower on yields, Treasury yields are now higher than before the September rate cuts. Oil was +5% on Tuesday to $72/barrel given the Middle East developments, but is back down to $70 Wednesday. The VIX approached 21 and closed +20% on the day before settling at 19 Wednesday.
The port strike impacts New England to Texas, accounting for 43-49% of all US imports. Approximately 50k ILA union longshoremen are on strike after rejecting a 50% wage hike over six years. The union also wants to limit automation and a 77% pay raise. The average base salary is $81k but some make up to $200k with overtime. They clearly see the future of AI and robots replacing many workers. Listen to this short interview of the union boss (Harold Daggert) in his threatening tone discuss the situation. He said, “We will crush them.” It seems as though a strike of a week or two is manageable but things get challenging after that period. The last ILA strike was in 1977. Biden can use the Taft-Hartley Act to force longshoremen back to work for an 80-day “cooling off period.” Biden has suggested he will not use that tool. Daggert said if they use Taft-Hartley, they will slow down the work and get very little done. Given the election is in a little over a month, this can have a major impact if it drags out. It can also contribute to inflation if it lasts for any period. Air freight is multiples more expensive than shipping, even with inefficient US ports due to the lack of automation. In China, the port automation is amazing. Based on how Secretary Buttigieg handled the last port catastrophe, I am concerned.
Interesting WSJ article entitled, “Three New York Cities Worth of Power: AI Is Stressing the Grid.” Across the nation, utilities are worried about expanding the overburdened power grid, citing high costs and concerns about commitment from data center projects. Tech companies scouring the country for electricity to power artificial intelligence are increasingly finding there is a waiting list.
In many places the nation’s high-voltage electric wires are running out of room, their connection points locked up by data centers for AI, new factories or charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. A mad dash to lock up available power has ensued. The tech industry is pinballing from one market to the next looking for places with the capacity to connect campuses that would consume up to a gigawatt of power—about as much as San Francisco uses. Some requests are as much as four to five times as large as that. Remember, 60% of the grid is powered by fossil fuels (natural gas or coal). Nuclear accounts for about 19% and renewables are approximately 21%. My point is simple; we will be relying on natural gas and coal for decades. The U.S wants to triple nuclear power by 2050 and Three Mile Island is coming on-line.
I have written extensively on insurance and the ridiculous prices we are all paying today. The horrible hurricane, Helena, will not help matters in Florida. A former FEMA director mentioned that people are going to be in shock when they find out they don’t have flood coverage given the damage from Helene. His suggestion was the Federal government would need to assist. This post by Tracy Shuchart shows the price of auto insurance is +50% since 2019. I called for insurance for my son to put a car into his name. It was a 2021 Kia Telluride worth $35k. They wanted $20k/year for insurance. WTF? This article shows 155k migrant diver arrests are also contributing to the massive increases in insurance rates. Remember, give Kevin Lang from Lang Insurance a call (866-964-4434) and he will be sure you get the best coverage. He focuses on higher-end coverages for property and casualty.
I have written about productivity gains in the past. In 2022, I wrote about 30 years of productivity gains and inserted the chart below. The chart shows how many workers it takes to generate $1mm in revenue for S&P 500 companies. As impressive as this chart is, the discussion on the most recent “All-In Podcast” leads me to believe there will be far more productivity improvements due to AI. Listen to the podcast where I have it started at the 16:34 mark. The future is scary, as many jobs will no longer exist. The All-In discussion suggests AI and software will replace many analysts. Some of this discussion was over my head, but I strongly suggest you listen for 20 minutes. We have seen many innovations improve efficiency and we are all better for it (Industrial Revolution, electrification, assembly line, standardization and many others). I wonder what my children will be doing for work in 10 years? I think many of the jobs we know today will not be the same by then, especially if self-driving takes off. The unions don’t want automation, which makes massive efficiency gains.
This WSJ article is entitled, “Americans Are More Reliant Than Ever on Government Aid,” and the results are surprising on many levels. Check out the charts! In 1970, very few counties relied on government assistance; by 2022, more than half of counties saw at least 25% of income from the government and the aging population is to blame. Americans’ reliance on government support is soaring, driven by programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. That support is especially critical in economically stressed communities throughout the U.S., many of which lean Republican and are concentrated in swing states crucial in deciding the presidential election. Neither party has much incentive to dial back the spending. We need to significantly modify entitlements in my opinion. Means testing (rich people will not receive it) and increase the age of benefits. People are living longer and healthcare inflation is higher than average. We need to slowly raise the age of benefits.
2024 Election
I watched most of the debate. Few people decide the vote based on the VP candidate. Although I felt Vance won the debate, I do not feel it will make a big difference in the election. I did feel Vance’s answer on the border, censorship and his constant reminders of the performance of Harris as VP. were effective. I felt Walz’s answer around his misstatements about China were incredibly weak. I did feel Walz was effective on pushing Vance on not accepting the 2020 election results. One reader sent me the note, “Both candidates represent the ticket better than the person at the top.” Candidates were cordial, agreed on some points and looked far more presidential than the candidates on the top of the ticket in my opinion. The NYT Opinion Piece agrees with my take.
'Two wizards bickering': Nate Silver, Allan Lichtman trade barbs over 2024 election picks
Lichtman believes Harris/Walz will win and Silver believes Trump/Vance have a better chance today.
Kamala Harris wants to take on price gouging. It’s hard to find agreement on what it even is
John Kerry Says The Quiet Part Out Loud: "First Amendment Stands As Major Block" To "Govern"
"Our First Amendment stands as a major block to the ability to be able to hammer [disinformation] out of existence. What we need is to win...the right to govern by hopefully winning enough votes that you're free to be able to implement change," Kerry said.
Elon Musk sent a strong Tweet on his concerns of allowing illegal immigrants to vote. There is a video in the link showing Harris recently saying she wants to create a pathway to citizenship for immigrants. It is unclear how it would work or how many she wants to allow citizenship.
Trump escalates attacks on Harris' mental fitness, says she should be prosecuted
Trump called Harris “mentally disabled.”
Breaking down the growth of GOP and decline of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania, county by county
Walz has been caught in quite a few lies recently, including his service in Afghanistan by saying he handled assault weapons in war, amount of trips to China and being at Tiananmen Square during the massacre.
Israel/Middle East
I have written extensively about media bias and absurdity. Last week, the NYTimes suggested Nasrallah wanted “equality” for all religions. Are you kidding me? He wanted to exterminate every Jew on the planet. NYT, you are a compete joke for painting the terrorist as anything other than a despicable human being. On a related note, the AP called Nasralla a “pragmatist” and neglected to highlight his hand in the murder of Americans in the obituary published by AP. Shame on both the AP and NYT. I have canceled my NYT subscription. Iran’s parliament chanted “Death to Israel” post Nasrallah’s death. This is a GREAT short video from an Australian journalist who is speaking in support of Israel. I think the escalation in the Middle East helps Trump more than Harris.
Iran launches missiles at Israel, IDF says (reportedly 200+ missiles)
One reader told me that Iran tried to hit a nuclear reactor in Dimona. Another article suggested the attacks damaged Israeli Air Force Bases.
IDF vows 'powerful airstrikes throughout Middle East' after Iran missile attack
Hamas says Nasrallah 'assassination' will only strengthen resistance
Hezbollah’s acting leader Naim Kassem vows to fight on after Nasrallah’s death
How long before the IDF finds Kassem and blows him up too?
Killing of Nasrallah is a key prize for Israel, but it’s too early to write off Hezbollah
Sadly, I concur that killing an ideology is hard. Hamas, Hezbollah, Taliban… is hard to end in total. Too many radicals out there.
Mossad infiltrated Iranian intelligence unit established to spy on Israel, Ahmadinejad says
AMAZING. I love this one.
I disagree. I hope Israel blows up all nuclear sites in Iran ASAP.
U.S. airstrikes on Syria kill 37 militants affiliated with extremist groups
Netanyahu: Iran regime change will come a ‘lot sooner than people think’
Hamas leader killed in Lebanon was UN employee, agency confirms
He worked for the UN and was a leader of Hamas. UN is a joke.
Yemen's Houthis Shoot Down Another $30 Million US Reaper Drone
Other Headlines
The National Debt Has Mitch Daniels Scared, And Dangerously Distracted
Former Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels writes in the Washington Post about the coming “collapse of the U.S. public debt market and the dollar’s world reserve status.” I have been concerned about debt levels, deficits, rising interest burden, aging population, and entitlement spending… but Daniels is in pure panic mode. The second chart story can be found here from Palm Valley Capital. They are concerned about the growth in Federal debt driving corporate profits.
China stocks just had their best day in 16 years, sending related U.S. ETFs soaring
Netherlands Reviews Bonus Cap as Banks Point to Hiring Issues
Pay caps mean you will not get the best talent. When I worked on Wall Street, we paid people based on performance. Capping compensation at 20% of salary has resulted in weaker talent pools and worse results.
Stellantis (-14%) & Aston Martin (-23%) shares drop sharply after profit warnings
Nike withdraws guidance, postpones investor day as it gears up for CEO change
Stock -6% post news.
Tesla stock slips after EV maker misses estimates on deliveries
Stock was +32% in 3rd Q and was -3% Wednesday.
OpenAI closes funding at $157 billion valuation, as Microsoft, Nvidia, SoftBank join round
Zuckerberg’s Metaverse Gamble Pays Off With $201 Billion Fortune
I thought changing the name and focusing on the Metaverse was a bad idea. Looks like I was wrong.
Photos: Hurricane Helene leaves flooding and destruction across the southeastern U.S. The hurricane dumped 40 trillion gallons of water. Some estimates are $100bn in damage from Helene.
NYC Jewish voters ready to rally for Andrew Cuomo for mayor, advocates say: Eric Adams ‘is toast’
So Cuomo is the best option? The DOJ believes Cuomo sexually harassed 13 women. Cuomo and his staff engaged in “a pattern or practice of discrimination against female employees based on sex” and found they retaliated against the women, Justice Department officials found. Let us not forget that he MANDADTED that nursing homes admit patients who tested positive for COVID resulting in the deaths of thousands of elderly people. His executive order was awful. Then, Cuomo understated the nursing home deaths by 50% to cover up the disaster. Why can’t we find more qualified individuals to lead the most important cities, states, and our country?
Austria goes back to the future as voters embrace far-right party founded by Nazis
Diddy accuser’s lawyer: ‘High-profile’ person unknowingly recorded
The lawyer is suggesting a video is being “shopped” with a “high-profile” person unknowingly recorded. How many of these tapes are out there? How many high-profile people are in full freak out mode right now over this one. Sean 'Diddy' Combs hit with a wave of 120 new sexual assault allegations.
California bans legacy and donor preferences in admissions at private, nonprofit universities
I just don’t eat tofu.
Tom Brady on the Piece of Health Advice He Got Early in His Career That He Still Swears by Today
He is very mindful of inflammation and is very cautious about sugar intake.
Nearly 1,000 tourists fall ill while visiting Cape Verde in Africa
Men are carrying the brunt of the ‘loneliness epidemic’ amid societal pressures
Real Estate
I spoke with a reader who is a pilot and owns a small plane. He said in the last 5 years, his monthly hangar charge went from $1,000 to $3,000 in Long Island and from $700 to $3,000/month in Boca Raton, Florida. Another reader/pilot/plane owner from Miami said, “The increase in rent has been brutal. My old hanger was $3,000 a month with epoxy floors, air conditioning, LED lighting and utilities included. I could fit all three of my aircraft in it. My current one is an absolute dump with a giant puddle that never goes away. The main door doesn’t seal shut so it’s always dirty and is oddly shaped, so I can only get two aircraft in it and they overlap, meaning I have to pull both out to get either one out…all for $,5500 + utilities.”
I can tell you that the cost to store my boat has gone bonkers over the past 6 years. It is up approximately 75% to $2,000/month (indoor Cat 4 Hurricane storage). I have a 34’ center console boat. The waitlist at my marina is over 3 years last I checked.
I had written about a purchase for $68mm on North Bay Road in Miami Beach by a famous athlete. It is now public that it was David and Victoria Beckham. North Bay Road has so many celebs and business titans (Orlando Bravo, Barry Sternlicht, Barry Diller, Dan Loeb, Gabe Plotkin, Randy Gerber/Cindy Crawford, Chris Burch, Jeff Altman, Barry Gibb, Jim Pallotta, …). The Beckhams own a full-floor condo at the Zaha Hadid-designed One Thousand Museum tower in downtown Miami. They paid about $19.8 million for the 10,000-square-foot unit in 2020. The west side of North Bay has some of the best views of downtown Miami and Biscayne Bay.
Other R/E Headlines
This demographic is fleeing both California and New York by the thousands
In a Florida Town Ravaged by Storms, Homeowners All Want to Sell
The WSJ article suggests ballooning insurance costs and constant hurricanes are pushing people out of the Tampa Bay housing market. Inventory is +58% vs last August and approximately 50% of the homes are seeing price reductions.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #722 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
I finished reading all of Eric Rosen's works today. It's really shocking