A New Life Low
2-15-25
Opening Comments
The last newsletter was a review of Uchi in Wynwood. A lot of people commented on Uchi and people agree it is solid, especially the Happy Hour. Many recommended omakase at the sushi bar. The most opened links were the income needed to be in the top 1%, 5% and 10% in the US and a heart surgeon’s advice on six things to avoid for heart health. Right behind was the top under-the-radar destinations from travel agents.
There was a frightening incident in West Palm Beach on Thursday as rumors of an armed intruder at the Oxbridge Academy resulted in a nightmare for parents. The school was on lockdown for hours and rumors were flying about an “active shooter.” Readers who have kids in that school were frantically calling to get information. One friend lost contact with his daughter and feared the worst. I could not imagine being in that situation. Thankfully, no one was injured, and the kids were released, as it was determined as a false alarm. It sure did not seem to be a false alarm to those kids.
When I was a kid, I rode my bike to school alone and never feared being kidnapped or shot at school Today, things are very different. It is a scary time in history. This is a video of a mother teaching her 5-year-old son to hide from a shooter behind his bulletproof Spider-Man backpack. How sad is that?
Markets
Loeb on Markets
Apollo Building out Marketplace for Private Credit
Shrinking US Cattle Herd
South Florida High End
NYC’s Priciest Neighborhoods
$100mm Dubai Homes
Citadel Left Chicago
Video of the Day-Tom Brady on Super Bowl Preparation
Tom Brady is the GOAT with seven Super Bowl rings. He was never viewed as the most gifted athlete, yet he is undeniably the best at his craft. In this interview, Brady outlines how and why he prepared for the Super Bowl. Everyone must watch this video, as I believe it is the same theory for business or anything you do. It is clear from the video that to prepare for the Super Bowl, Brady locks himself in and does not allow for distractions. “I literally went wire to wire for two weeks,” Brady said. He meant he was studying film full-time.
A New Life Low
The first step in improving yourself is admitting you have a problem. My loyal readers know I am willing to share some embarrassing moments as we live in the “No Judgement” zone. Yeah right. I get made fun of daily by my readers, and this one will surely lead to some zingers. I’ve admitted that I have a Facebook Reels addiction before bedtime. I watch surfing, basketball, padel, fishing, cooking, restaurant reviews, and karate videos. It ends up being a solid 45 minutes each night before bedtime.
Last week, a stupid clip feed came up and for some reason I watched it. The short was a two-minute excerpt from a movie. It was bad, but I watched it and then hit next, then next, then next. I got into the dumbest movie of all time called, “Money, Guns, and a Merry Christmas.” Sadly, after 5 clips, I was cut off from the movie and was asked to pay $19.99 to continue. My readers know I am the most frugal man alive, and I would never pay. I was allowed 5 scenes daily, and after each one, I had to watch a commercial. After a few awful days of the movie and growing frustrated with ads, I found the full movie online in full and completed the drivel. In the history of cinema, there has never been a worse combination of bad acting, a dumber plot, and a greater need for the suspension of disbelief. I am so mad at myself for watching it that I vowed to be done ever spending time on such crap. Siskel and Ebert would be at a loss for words trying to describe how painful this film was to watch, yet I did.
Fast forward five days and another idiotic movie hit my feed. It was entitled, “Escape With Boss's Baby.” It is far worse than the bad title suggests, with another dumb plot so ridiculous that I felt my IQ dropping as I watched. A billionaire heiress with a PhD in computer science becomes an executive assistant to a billionaire to make sure he loves her for the right reasons. The moronic plot is so awful that it was insulting, yet I watched it in its entirety. I am so mad at myself. At least I learned from my last movie that I could watch on YouTube without watching commercials. However, it was another complete waste of time and energy.
I consider myself a well-educated, successful person of high intelligence. However, my time watching this crap has me questioning everything. I admit that I have a problem and I am swearing off these cheap soap opera-type films. If you hear that I watched another one, please call me out publicly. My IQ cannot afford more losses like the ones I took over the last two weeks watching these crappy movies. This is a link to the worst 100 movies of all time according to Rotten Tomatoes. I can tell you that none are as bad as the two outlined in today’s note. I am ashamed of myself right now. I need help.
I have included links to both movies and am hopeful some of my readers who are bored watch it and are upset for wasting time. Although my notes try to impart knowledge and wisdom with some fun, I am so mad at myself that I feel misery loves company. Watch and send me your thoughts/reviews on the movies. If you like the movies, you should probably get some help. We can start a support group.
Quick Bites
On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer survey showed weaker results, with consumer sentiment dropping to 67.8%, down 11.8% from a year ago. The decline was driven by a one-year inflation expectation of 4.3%. Clearly, tariffs played a factor in that sentiment data. Stocks sold off on inflation fears Friday with the Nasdaq underperforming post Amazon’s weak guidance. Major indices were -1-1.3% with the Nasdaq underperforming. The 10-year treasury yield increased back to 4.49% but was 4.8% a few weeks ago. Oil fell for the third straight week to $71/barrel or (-3% on week) due to trade war concerns, slightly offset by new Iranian sanctions.
The stock market is on a volatile ride this week in part because of the tariff back-and-forth from the Trump administration and various countries. But Third Point’s Daniel Loeb believes investors should relax. The hedge fund manager believes stocks will benefit from the macro environment going forward, even with periods of volatility brought on by President Donald Trump’s unique policymaking. “Overall, Third Point expects the environment for investing in equities to continue to be favorable, with the caveat that there will likely be periodic dislocations caused by the unconventional approach of this Administration in conveying and enacting policy that affects markets and the economy,” Loeb wrote in his latest investor letter dated Tuesday. Loeb’s comments struck a more optimistic tone than some other high-profile investors, who have warned about the negative effects from Trump’s tariff and immigration policies. Loeb’s comments struck a more optimistic tone than some other high-profile investors, who have warned about the negative effects from Trump’s tariff and immigration policies. Loeb has proven to be an amazing investor for 30 years with strong returns. Although I feel there are a lot of positives from a business perspective about this administration, I believe valuations are pretty full.
Apollo Global Management Inc. is seeking to build a marketplace that would allow investors to buy and sell high-grade private assets more easily, while encroaching further into terrain once dominated by the biggest Wall Street firms. The alternative asset manager is in discussions to partner with banks, exchanges and fintech firms to deliver real-time information and intraday prices for private credit deals, according to Eric Needleman, head of Apollo Capital Solutions. Such a marketplace would allow Apollo to trade and syndicate the debt it originates on a bigger scale and be the first of its kind in modern-day private markets, where assets are typically held with the buyers and prices are rarely disclosed publicly. I am a little surprised by this move. The beauty of private credit is the fact that it does not trade much, and as a result, your valuation stays relatively constant relative to an actively traded instrument. Investors look at risk-adjusted returns, and adding volatility to an asset class brings down the attractiveness.
I have never tracked the US cattle herd before but thought the data was interesting. The USDA's January Cattle Inventory report showed a slight decline in the cattle herd nationwide, reaching record low levels. As of January, the total number of cattle and calves was 86.7 million, down by 1% from last year, reported Market Intel. The beef herd has shrunk 40% since 1975 to the smallest size since 1961. Beef cows that have calved hit a record low at 27.9 million, revealed the U.S. Department of Agriculture, while replacement heifers also decreased, indicating continued contraction in the cattle cycle.
Politics
I have written extensively about government waste and the fact that the $7.3 trillion US budget has well over $1 trillion of crap in it. As DOGE settles in and more information is released, the more concerned we all should become. There are a ton of posts (does not make it true) about government spending. There was a post about $4bn aid to Haiti and the fact that only 2% of it went to the country. According to the post, since 2010, USAID has disbursed at lease $2.1bn in contracts and grants for Haiti-related work and only $48.6mm has gone directly to Haiti. Much of it went to firms in DC. Hate this administration if you want but I hope they blow the lid off this careless spending and make a dent in the $2 trillion annual deficits. If they can make a dent in spending and we can finally get entitlement reform, I will feel a lot better about the fiscal situation in the United States. This video outlines a USAID whistleblower’s thoughts and midway through shows examples of waste. The CBO just revealed that Congress spent $516 billion in 2024 on programs with expired authorizations, some dating back over 40 years. Maybe some of these are valid, but a half trillion on expired programs in one year?
USAID Has Been Funding Over 6,000 Journalists Worldwide Across Nearly 1000 Platforms
This link outlines dozens of USAID wasteful spending examples and many are insanely woke.
More USAID money going for transgender recognition in other countries.
Federal Judge Blocks Elon Musk’s DOGE From Treasury System
Order requires those who have accessed payment records without proper security clearance to destroy them
I feel those tax loopholes were unfair and should come to an end. It is unclear to me how much ending those loopholes would create in revenues over 10 years.
Trump administration agrees to restrict DOGE access to Treasury Department payment systems
The agreement came in response to a lawsuit accusing Treasury of committing an "unlawful action" by giving private info to Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.
Trump’s tax cuts are ‘stuck in the mud’ as Republicans split over spending
Betsy DeVos: Shut Down the Department of Education
Crazy statistics. Something is amiss with over $1 trillion spent by the DOE with awful results.
Bessent says Trump is focused on the 10-year Treasury yield and won't push the Fed to cut rates
I don’t care your political party; you should be irate that MAJOR media outlets edit presidential candidates to make them look better. I would be mad regardless of which party benefited.
Just what CA needs, Kamala.
I am all for LEGAL immigration and keeping America the “Melting Pot,” but am adamantly opposed to 300k/illegal immigrants coming in a month and overtaking our cities. We need to know who is in our country and prevent bad actors from getting through our borders.
China says will protect its own interests in face of U.S. ‘bullying’
How Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger got caught in Trump’s trade war
New AG Pam Bondi bans federal funds from heading to 'Sanctuary Cities‘
Trump removes Antony Blinken, Letitia James, Alvin Bragg's security clearances among others
The decision comes a day after the president stripped former President Biden of his security clearance
Rep. Al Green is filing new impeachment articles against Trump
GOP support for Musk influence with Trump falls dramatically
Given Musk’s roles in so many companies, I do not understand how shareholders are not irate that he is now spending countless hours in DOGE.
Mitch McConnell using a wheelchair after falling down stairs at the Capitol
I want age and term limits for Congress, Senate, and Presidency. This guy has fallen and frozen on the podium multiple times. Dude, step down. 82-years old. This link shows the longest-serving members of Congress by longevity of service. Wow, John Dingell served for over 59 years.
Secret Service swarm black-clad man who tried climbing over White House fence after saying, ‘F–k it’
Middle East
Mideast Powers Reject Trump Proposal to Take Over Gaza
Saudi Arabia says it is committed to a Palestinian state including the strip, rules out normalization of diplomatic ties with Israel without that goal. I just don’t see Trump’s plan coming to fruition.
Trump lays out exactly how he plans for US to seize control of Gaza
Hamas frees three more Israeli hostages, including men whose wives were killed in Oct. 7 attack
Shameless, suit-clad thief steals $15K from NYC synagogue donation boxes in early-morning heist
Other Headlines
Major Trump U-turn on China tariffs after furious shoppers were hit with fees
I was in that room many days presenting market updates. It was the most insane time of my professional career. I will never forget the weekend meeting where I pounded the table to avoid the Bear Stearns acquisition. I lost the battle but was proven right. My piece from last year on the topic.
Amazon issues disappointing guidance even as earnings top estimates
Amazon plans to spend $100 billion this year to capture ‘once in a lifetime opportunity’ in AI
So much for DeepSeek making a dent in AI spend. The tech megacaps plan on spending $320bn in 2025 on AI.
Tesla sales are diving in Germany and across Europe too
German trade group reports 60% year-on-year fall in Tesla registrations.
Ford beats earnings expectations but forecasts tougher year ahead
Eli Lilly posts mixed quarter even as demand for weight loss, diabetes drugs soars
Roblox fans gaming industry gloom with weak forecast, shares tank
The Race-Blind College-Admissions Era Is Off to a Weird Start
NCAA bars transgender women from competing in women’s sports
I fully support this change and do not feel biologically born men should compete against women or be in their locker rooms.
NYPD charge 14 Brooklyn gangbangers over street war that left rival dead, 9 hurt after 19 shootings
Second group of migrant criminals, including one Tren de Aragua killer, sent to Guantanamo Bay
Sweden just experienced the worst mass shooting in its history.
Police Probe Who Poached 100,000 Eggs
Eggs are getting so expensive that people are stealing them.
9 foods with more protein than an egg, according to dietitians
Wisconsin couple sues Walgreens and Optum Rx, saying son died after $500 price rise for asthma meds
Consulting giant PwC discourages White, Asian students from applying to career program
Kanye West praises Hitler in disturbing rant, says he controls wife Bianca Censori: ‘I’m a Nazi’
I just cannot fathom how it ends well for Kanye.
Flu surges to 15-year-high in US — as NYC sees largest number of cases in 5 years
I’m a cardiologist — the heart health signs you shouldn’t ignore in your 40s, 50s and 60s
I’ve studied over 200 kids—the most successful ones have parents who did 9 things early on
As a parent of two teenagers, I think this is some pretty sound advice.
I’m a colorectal surgeon — 5 foods that increase your risk of cancer
Woman, 20, suffers cardiac arrest in the gym after energy drink
I have never tasted an energy drink and they are banned in my house.
Heavy marijuana use could threaten the brain in this specific way: new research
Daily talk time plummets 3,000 words since 2005 as texting takes over
Between 2005 and 2018, researchers found the average number of daily spoken words dropped from 16,000 to around 13,000 — a decline that appears linked to our increasing reliance on digital communication tools like texting and social media. “We did a full analysis looking at what year the data were collected and found that, indeed, 300 spoken words on average per year go missing,” explains study co-lead author Valeria Pfeifer of the University of Arizona, in a statement.
Super Bowl guests love a great party game. Our ultimate prop sheet delivers the fun
Good game ideas for your Super Bowl party.
Real Estate
The high end remains hot in South Florida. A lot sold on Palm Beach Island for $177.8mm last week. The 2.8-acre lot has 360 ft of direct beach frontage. On North Bay Road in Miami Beach, a $105mm lot sale for 2.34 acres on Biscayne Bay. The property has 290 ft of water frontage. The developer plans on building a 50k-foot house to ask $250mm for the completed project. The lot was purchased for $2.5mm in the early 1990s. This lot purchase crushed the return on the S&P over the same period largely due to the exponential growth since COVID. Also interesting is more displaced families from Malibu and Pacific Palisades are looking at South Florida. One broker told me three LA-based families came to a high-end showing in Miami Beach for a $100k/month rental.
Article about NYC’s priciest neighborhoods. Hudson Yards in Manhattan held onto its No. 1 ranking for the sixth year in a row, with a staggering $7.13 million median sale price, thanks to a 22% price jump — even though total transactions were cut nearly in half. Meanwhile, Tribeca jumped to No. 2 at $3.3 million, fueled by high-end sales of multi-million-dollar single-family homes. Other elite Manhattan neighborhoods experienced declines. Soho slipped to No. 3 after a 15% drop in median sale price, while Central Park South saw the steepest decline among NYC’s most expensive areas, falling 25% year-over-year to $2.61 million.
Brooklyn’s rising star in the luxury market isn’t just about Red Hook and Carroll Gardens. The borough saw some of the most dramatic shifts in sales volume across the city.
Dubai is continuing to strengthen its position as a global luxury real estate hub with the introduction of new $100 million mansions aimed at attracting the world’s ultra-wealthy buyers. These high-end properties, designed with a blend of opulence and cutting-edge technology, offer unparalleled luxury and exclusivity, reinforcing the city’s appeal among high-net-worth individuals seeking a lavish lifestyle in one of the most cosmopolitan cities in the world. The move comes amid Dubai’s ongoing efforts to diversify its economy and reduce dependence on oil. By creating an environment conducive to wealth generation, the city aims to secure its place as a key player in the global luxury real estate market, appealing to billionaires and other affluent individuals from various industries such as finance, technology, and entertainment. The new mansions are situated in some of the city’s most prestigious neighborhoods, including Palm Jumeirah and Emirates Hills, both of which are synonymous with opulence and sophistication.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel is departing the iconic Chicago tower that once served as its headquarters, cutting one of its last remaining ties to the city. The financial conglomerate is in talks to exit Citadel Center, the 37-story building named after the company at 131 S. Dearborn St., people familiar with the discussions said. Citadel would still keep a presence in Chicago, downsizing to a smaller office nearby, one of the people said, asking not to be named because the information is private. The move would mark a significant step in Griffin’s years-long effort to depart Chicago after the billionaire financier relocated his businesses and family to Miami in 2022. Citadel has expanded its offices in the Florida city and in New York, where Griffin plans to build a 62-story office tower with developers Vornado Realty Trust and Rudin.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #760 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
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Your comments on private credit are spot on. Making privates like publics will end up in tears. Do you want your home to be traded on an open market? Some things are meant to be illiquid.