Tuition Sticker Shock
2-19-25
Opening Comments
My last note was about my Bimini fishing debacle. The most opened links were the most shocking DOGE revelations and the one thing to do to improve your memory.
I always correct the record if I post something in error. Readers pointed out that one of my most open stories from last week has proven to be false. I posted a story of the ex-USAID chief’s skyrocketing net worth while in office and this article suggests that story was not true. Apologies for the error. I still believe DOGE is uncovering a great amount of waste and excess despite some noise in the process.
This was the CNN weekly new quiz. I went 9 for 10 missing question #5.
Markets
Bank of America on US Stock “Bubble”
Egg Market
Car Price Inflation
Skyrocketing NBA Team Valuations
Health Related-NEW SECTION
$150mm Hedge Fund Home for Sale in Manalapan/Palm Beach Data
More Rent Stabilized Pain
Federal Land Sales to Reduce Housing Costs?
Picture of the Day-Cost of Lift Tickets in Vail over President’s Weekend
One of my most opened links was “Skiing is for Billionaires,” given my ski trip with my daughter, Julia, a couple years ago was out of control on the cost front. My friend took his boys on a last-minute trip to Vail last weekend and spent $303/day per person on lift tickets getting a $26/day discount from the $329 stated price. To ski for two days, airfare, room (3 nights), food, rental car and rides to the airport for four people coming from different cities ended up costing $25k. Despite good snow, the crowds were so crazy that they waited two hours to pick up the ski equipment rental. I warned him not to go over President’s Day weekend. It also took him seven hours to get from Denver to Vail (118 miles) given the storm. He missed his flight back to NYC, as he left Vail at 7:30 am for a 1:40 pm flight and was late due to road closures.
Tuition Sticker Shock
I have written about my views that I feel many kids applying to four-year colleges should instead go to some type of vocational program. Given I am knee-deep in the college process with my kids, I have spent a lot of time thinking about this. There are more impressive in-state schools today than when I was attending college 100 years ago. If you can get into one of the good in-state programs that is reasonable, I am very supportive of college for a wider set of kids. For perspective, when I went to college, my ENTIRE four-year degree (in-state) given a small academic scholarship was $25k. Remember, the data I outline on costs does not factor in those who qualify for financial aid of some sort.
My son is a strong student and will graduate high school with a 3.95 unweighted GPA and about a dozen AP classes while earning fluency in Spanish. He is attending Wake Forest University in the fall and according to their website, the total estimated costs are $91,266 for 2024-25. This does not include a fraternity or sorority, going to off-campus meals, computers, traveling home for holidays, and other incidentals. I fully expect the total cost of college to be over $450,000 across four years. The combination of great academics, small class sizes, big athletics programs, a beautiful campus and a strong emphasis on personalized learning have Wake as a top university today. Jack is very excited about Wake and cannot wait to get started.
We visited Tulane University and the stated total costs of the school are $88,266/year. I spoke with a parent who said, “I spend over $110k all-in for Tulane.” A USC parent suggested the total spend is closer to $150k with $68k in tuition, $40k for housing and then add food, Uber, fraternity dues, tutors, trips back to the east coast, LA clubbing and more. I spoke with parents of kids at both Penn and Duke as well and was told the “all-in” cost is over $120k/year and that does not include studying abroad.
Given we live in Florida, a high-quality option and a very competitive school is the University of Florida. The in-state total costs are $24,180 which is quite reasonable, especially for the quality of the school. Tuition is only $6,380 if you are in-state. As a result of these factors and the former school President’s strong stance against antisemitism, the school has become nearly impossible to get into. There are valedictorians from Florida who do not gain admission. The acceptance rate is approximately 50% of what it was a dozen years ago.
This CNBC article outlines the cost of the most expensive degrees ranging from $442k to $514k.
As the sticker price of an education at top US colleges pushes toward six figures, a growing number of students are packing their bags in search of more bang for their buck. European universities often charge less for tuition and offer degrees in under four years, adding to the savings. In the UK, the number of applications from US students doubled in the past decade, while the Netherlands has seen a nearly 50% increase in the last five years.
The growing allure of European colleges comes as millions of US students struggle to pay off their education loans and families increasingly question whether high-priced degrees are worth it, particularly at less renowned schools.
My conclusion is college costs are out of control. There are options that include considering a good in-state choice, studying abroad, and vocational schools. With the massive changes in employment due to AI coming over the next decade, I am just not convinced many students attending four-year programs should be doing so anymore. Interestingly, today, 58% of college applicants are females and only 42% are males.
On a related note, Bloomberg came out with an article showing NYC Private high school costs for next year and the results are crazy. This is tuition!
Quick Bites
The S&P hit a record of 6,147 on Wednesday and was +4.5% YTD as of Wednesday afternoon. Earnings have largely exceeded expectations. As of a few days ago, 77% of companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings and 76% of those were above estimates. The earnings growth rate of 16.9% is for those who reported and estimates for those yet to report according to Factset. However, Trump suggested 25% tariffs on autos, pharma and semiconductors that could go higher and start April 2nd. Toll brothers announced disappointing earnings and the stock fell 6%. The iShares US Home Construction ETF is -22% since September. U.S. homebuilders raise alarm over tariffs as sentiment falls to 5-month low. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.55% relative to 3.61% on 9/16/24, just before the rate cut.
Business Insider has an article quoting Bank of America suggesting growth stocks are a bubble exceeding the “dot-com” and “nifty fifty” areas and warns of a large potential downdraft in the S&P. If you listen closely enough, amid all the investors cheering on AI, echoes of some of the great bubbles in history are starting to reverberate through the narrow canyon of skyscrapers on Wall Street.
That's the warning Bank of America strategists issued to clients in a note earlier this week. The argument was based on concentration levels in the market. The market cap of US stocks compared to the rest of the world is 3.3 standard deviations away from the historical norm. Part of the reason the market has gotten so concentrated is because of passive investing, where investors shovel money into indexes indiscriminately, Woodard said. "Passive funds dominate with 54% market share," he wrote. A bunch of great charts in the article. Yes, I have written recently about stocks looking expensive, but I am not calling for a 40% decline. This WSJ article is on a related matter and is called, “Investors Spot Signs of Market Froth During Long Bull Market.” Investors are fearful that some market gains are outpacing typical measures of underlying value after strong economic growth helped power the S&P 500 to record after record in a nearly two-year bull market.
The price of eggs has gone bonkers with the bird flu. I recently paid $10 for a dozen organic eggs at Whole Foods. This WSJ article, “At the ‘Wall Street of Eggs,’ Demand Is Surging,” is about the biggest egg marketplace in the US. From an office building in New Hampshire, roughly a dozen people facilitate the trading of billions of eggs a year, a task that shapes what Americans pay per dozen at the supermarket or for omelets at diners. The Egg Clearinghouse, or ECI, is little known outside the industry: It operates an online marketplace that allows participants to place bids on eggs listed for sale and see the results of trades. Only ECI members—farmers and egg buyers—are allowed to trade. ECI represents a sliver of the broader egg market—less than 5%—but plays a crucial role in providing eggs for those in need or having trouble getting them, and how they are priced. The deadliest outbreak of avian flu in history has resulted in the death of more than 100 million U.S. chickens, turkeys and egg-laying hens since 2022, according to the Agriculture Department. I had no idea there was an Egg Clearing House.
During the pandemic, new and used car prices went through the roof. This WSJ article suggests the used car market will remain elevated. Used-vehicle shoppers are finding stubbornly high prices at the dealership lot—if they can find a car at all. Used-car and truck prices rose 2.2% from December to January, while new-car prices were flat, according to the Labor Department. It was a significant factor keeping overall inflation stuck at 3%. Prices on both new and used vehicles have come down from their 2022 peak, when vehicles were in short supply because of supply-chain problems. The inflation was more pronounced on used cars, though, and they remain pricier than they had been before the pandemic relative to new vehicles. Car dealers and analysts say higher used-car prices will stick for a while. The last chart shows the average age of cars on the road at 14 years, up sharply over the past 20 years. It is a combination of better-quality cars and high replacement costs which push people to own cars longer.
Professional team valuations have grown exponentially in recent decades. This CNBC story outlines all of the NBA team valuations based on revenues for the 2023-24 season. It may not be surprising that the value of the Warriors has increased at a 24% compound annual growth rate since Joe Lacob and Peter Guber paid $450 million for the team in 2010. But even the small-market Memphis Grizzlies, the NBA’s least valuable team, worth $3.2 billion, have been a great investment for owner Robert Pera. The Grizzlies have not been to the NBA Finals since entering the league in 1995 and generally rank in the bottom third of the NBA in average attendance. Yet, the value of the Grizzlies has increased at a 19% annual rate since Pera paid $377 million for the team in 2012. According to team executives, the biggest reason for the rising tide in NBA valuations has been the increase in national media rights, which are divided equally among the league’s 30 teams. In July, the NBA agreed to a new media rights package worth $76 billion over 11 years, beginning with the 2025-26 season. Look at one of the worst teams in the league, the Charlotte Hornets. Michael Jordan paid $275mm for the team in 2010 and it is worth $3.4bn today. I am sure he took out some big dividends along the way. Dr. Jerry Buss paid $67.5mm for the Lakers in 1979 and the team is worth $7bn today.
Politics
I received a lot of comments about my DOGE section in my last report. If you want to follow the DOGE savings and the government waste it is exposing, the Twitter link to DOGE is here. DOGE Tweeted that the Treasury Access Symbol (TAS) is an identification code linking a Treasury payment to a budget line item and the TAS field was options for approximately $4.7 trillion in payments and was often left blank making it challenging to trace payments. On Monday, Musk sent out a Tweet showing potential fraud in Social Security. The DOGE team uncovered that over 20mm Americans listed at over 100 years old in the database and some may be collecting Social Security. The actual number of Americans 100 or older is about 100k. The chart below shows over 12.5mm people in America are over 120 years old according to the Social Security Database. It does not appear to me that these dead people were receiving benefits.
USAID’s Troubling Ties to the Woke Nonprofits That Called the Shots in the Biden Administration
$1,500 Coffee Cups and $150,000 Soap Dispensers: Pentagon Waste Must End
If you read this, you will be upset. Your tax dollars are being wasted with inefficient overpayments.
Trump administration tries to bring back fired nuclear weapons workers in DOGE reversal
Fairly critical article of some of Trump’s actions including pardons of Adams and Blagojevich.
ICE Struggles to boost arrest numbers despite infusion of resources
I am surprised that more people have not been deported given Trump’s strong messaging on the topic.
Judge orders Mayor Eric Adams, DOJ lawyers to appear in court to explain case dismissal request
4 NYC deputy mayors signal intent to resign from Adams admin following Trump DOJ order to drop case
NYC congestion pricing axed as Trump pulls approval of hated toll
U.S., Russia end first high-level talks since 2022 as Ukraine peace negotiations hang in the balance
Putin thinks he's 'on the brink' of victory and Zelensky is 'cornered rat'
Joe Biden’s 577 vacation days over four-year term tops modern presidents
Biden was in hiding given his diminished capacity and was protected by his administration and the media. Biden was on holiday 40% of his term and rarely gave press conferences or interviews, especially late in his term. You can hate Trump, but that guy is present and seems to give a heck of a lot of time to journalists. This article suggests no president in recorded history has done fewer press conferences than Biden.
41% of all the full time jobs created during the Biden administration were government employees
More Democrats Want a More Moderate Party, Poll Says
Today, 45% of Democrats and left-leaning independents surveyed indicated they would prefer a more moderate Democratic Party, up 11% from 2021, according to Gallup. I do not believe the status quo for the Democratic party is a winning option going forward. Here is Rahm Emanuel’s views on the Democrats today. They are losing kitchen table issues.
Dems far outnumber conservatives in government
Based on a combination of U.S. Census Bureau figures and its own data, Realtor.com predicted Texas' population will hit 42 million that year—a 35% increase from its current figure of just under 31 million. KFC just moved its headquarters to Texas from Kentucky.
From tariffs to DOGE, what companies are saying about the impact of MAGA policies
Brazen Canadian ‘coyotes’ smuggling migrants across the northern border — even advertising on TikTok
ICE struggles to boost arrest numbers despite infusion of resources
I am surprised after all of Trump’s talk on the subject more illegal immigrants have not been deported in his first month in office.
Trump shares poll showing Donalds leading Florida governor’s race
Middle East
Netanyahu vows to ‘finish the job’ against Iran with support from Trump
Israel will ‘open the gates of hell’ if Hamas fails to free all hostages
Israel's Netanyahu signals he's moving ahead with Trump's idea to transfer Palestinians from Gaza
Lebanon: IDF Strike Eliminates Top Hamas Operative Planning Terror Attacks on Israelis Abroad
How USAID Shipped Bags of Hundred Dollar Bills to the Taliban
Jerry Seinfeld trolls pro-Palestinian activist by saying, 'I don't care about Palestine'
Other Headlines
Traders are betting that bond yields could soon hit a dangerous level for stocks
30% of Americans increased their emergency savings in 2024. That’s progress, expert says
Good news, but the Federal data on the savings rate remains anemic.
JPMorgan’s new NYC HQ boasts lux amenities to lure workers back to office
The article talks of a $3bn price tag. I believe it will be sharply higher. The Park Avenue headquarters includes a signature scent, Irish pub, on-site physical therapy, in-house yoga — and a 19-restaurant food hall, complete with desk-side delivery. The all-electric 60-story skyscraper’s lighting system will mimic workers’ natural circadian rhythms – adjusting in brightness to align with the time of day – while conference rooms will take into consideration their temperature preferences. As Jamie told me at dinner a couple years ago, the crazy Jamie Dimon bathroom story with me won’t happen in the new building.
How is this possible? Musk figures everything out. He started xAI 3/9/23.
These red flags that can trigger an IRS tax audit are ‘low hanging fruit,’ expert says
CNN White House correspondent deletes post promoting Luigi Mangione's defense fund after backlash
A man was killed in cold-blood and people want to support the murder? A respected White House correspondent was promoting a defense fund for the killer. How is this possible? She should be fired.
Winter's back: Freezing cold in Midwest and blizzard fears in Northeast
Chicago could see -20 to -30 degrees. There many reasons I am glad to no longer live in Chicago and, sadly, the weather is not the top reason. In Boca Raton, it is a low of 67 and a high of 85. I win.
To avoid ‘awkward, superficial’ small talk, make one little change, says communication expert
I like these thoughts. Too much auto pilot discussion takes place otherwise.
I will never understand the vilification of success. Capitalism wins. Most of the wealthiest people in the world donate tens of billions to charity and are changing the world. I am an unabashed capitalist.
The newly announced closures mean 12% of the Catholic Schools that operated in the five boroughs in 2020 will no longer exist by the summer. That’s not even counting the half-dozen other Catholic schools that merged with other schools to bolster their quickly diminishing ranks.
Delta plane crashes on landing at Toronto airport, injuring at least 15
Health Related
Lots of veggies, green or bleak tea, and coffee. The people on the island live 8 years longer than Americans and have almost zero dementia.
Cannabis Cocktails Are on the Rise. Could They Replace Alcohol?
Real Estate
British Billionaire Chris Rokos Wants $150 Million for His Florida Mansion Chris Rokos set a record for the affluent town of Manalapan, Fla., when he paid $40 million for a home there in 2017. Eight years later, Rokos is relisting the home for more than triple what he paid. If it fetches its $150 million asking price, the Bali-inspired waterfront estate would be one of the priciest homes ever to sell in Manalapan, most of which is located on a barrier island just south of Palm Beach. Rokos, founder of the hedge fund Rokos Capital Management, declined to comment. Article about $100mm homes in South Florida. On this topic, the NY Post article, “Wealthy New Yorkers flock to Palm Beach, causing house prices to skyrocket: ‘Supercharged migration,’” gives some good data. In 2019, months before the first-known cases of COVID-19 started showing up in U.S. cities, a scant 6.5% of listing views in Palm Beach County came from New York, according to a data analysis by Realtor.com. However, by 2021, the pandemic had tightened its grip on New York City, that share of listing views to 8.1%. In 2023, the share of listing views from New York reached an all-time high of 19.6%, meaning that 1 in 5 potential homebuyers were from the Empire State.
One of the big buyers to emerge for rent-stabilized multifamily has started snapping up the declining asset class’s debt, too — so long as the discount is deep enough. Peter Hungerford’s PH Realty in partnership with Rockledge picked up $61 million in loans held by PIMCO and backed by a portfolio of six Bronx apartment buildings, PincusCo first reported. The private lender let them go for the rock-bottom price of $28 million. That’s 45 cents on the dollar. The 442-unit portfolio is 100 percent rent-stabilized, Hungerford said, meaning it has been battered by the 2019 rent law’s de facto cap on revenues. In the same period, the buildings’ owners weathered a run-up in insurance costs, then interest rates, and ultimately, stopped paying debt service. The idiotic rent control laws from 2019 have eviscerated the market values for these buildings. Couple that with sharply higher rates and it is a death spiral. I have been brought 20 of these deals and have not considered making one investment in this space given the absurdity of NY rent laws.
Interesting article about programs to potentially sell federal land out west to reduce housing costs. Nevada, for example, has more than 80% of the land controlled by the US government. Critics are quick to note possible consequences for the environment and conservation. They argue that such proposals create a slippery slope: Lands may initially be sold off for specific housing needs but then become the go-to solution for private development of all sorts.
© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #763 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.
Did not. They want to go to a smaller private school.
Hope you enrolled all your kids in a 529 plan. Did this for my five granddaughters who are almost all of out college (Harvard, Cornell, Brandeis, Princeton). Half the cost came from untaxed growth in 529s.