Best State Rankings

3-16-25

Mar 16, 2025

Opening Comments

The last note was about finding the level and the importance of listing your house at a fair price. The most opened links were what to do when an adult is choking (video) and Chef Edvina live streams.

I was sick last week and was not sleeping well due to my non-stop coughing the entire night. My Eight Sleep scores were awful since I was up most of the night. After four bad sleep nights, I returned to my high scores as soon as the cough went away. I highly recommend the Eight Sleep Pod and have gained 1.5 hours+ of sleep every night since using it. A reader bought it last month and struggled for the 1st couple of weeks until he found the right settings and is now sleeping like a rock. If you decide to purchase an Eight Sleep Pod, use code ROSEN for a discount.

A reader recommended I try Josh’s Deli in Bal Harbor and, despite being a tiny place with zero ambiance, the food did not disappoint. The Glatt kosher deli packs a punch but does not come cheap. These are probably the best potato latkes I have ever tried. They were thick and crispy, and the apple sauce made for the perfect combo. The OMG turkey sandwich was $28.50, the highest price I ever paid for one. It was darn good, but massive and better shared. My bill included an 18% service charge and was $52 with just the two things below and tap water. Pretty fully priced for a 20-minute lunch. If you go, split the order; it is that big and worth a try despite the full price. I don’t love pastrami, but I was told that is their specialty.

Food-7.8
Service-8.1
Ambiance-2.2
Cost-Fully Priced

Video of the Day- Markets Discussion With Key Players
U.S. News & World Report’s Best States
Quick Bites
- Markets
- Dow Theory
- Consumer Data
- Wealth Transfer to Women
Politics
Middle East
Other Headlines
Health Related
Real Estate
- NYC Median Rents
- Padlocked NYC Playground
- West Palm Beach New Development

Video of the Day-Markets Discussion with Key Players

I moderated a panel on Thursday evening covering a host of market-related topics with Peter Boockvar (Bleakley Group) and Alon Rosin (Oppenheimer). The content was recorded in conjunction with 3i Members and was live for the 3i community. I always enjoy moderating these panels, as we cover a lot of ground, and I learn something every time. Markets, volatility, economy, consumer, rates, trade ideas, DOGE, tariffs, tax bill, inflation, deficits, and more were covered in the hour.

U.S. News & World Report’s Best States

The latest U.S. News & World Report’s ranking for the best states was recently published. Utah came in #1 overall. I love Utah and have been looking for homes there recently. The skiing is amazing, and the summers are fantastic. The topography is beautiful and there are a lot of other positives with the state. Utah has a 4.55% income tax rate and is #2 in education, #3 for economy, #3 for infrastructure, and #18 in opportunity. New Hampshire and Nebraska (shocker) rounded out the top three. I do like New Hampshire, but the winters are a non-starter for me. Nothing could ever get me to live in Nebraska.

Interestingly, Florida came in at #9 and is #1 in education, #1 economy, #3 in fiscal stability, and #13 in crime. New York came in at #23. However, NY came in #8 in healthcare and #5 in natural environment. California was #37 and only came in high at #6 in healthcare. On Friday, California insurance regulators approved State Farm’s request for rate hikes, averaging a 22% bump for the largest insurer in the state.

So many people hate on Florida. What I find amazing is that Florida is killing it without income taxes, running a surplus, paying down debt, and finishing in the top 20 in six out of eight categories. However, I have issues with Florida: R/E has gone through the roof, insurance costs are sky high, and getting your kids into a good school is very challenging. Obviously, the weather from July through October is awful as well, and hurricane risk is high.

The bottom of the list was #48 Mississippi, #49 New Mexico and # 50 Louisiana. I understand low rankings for Mississippi and Louisiana, but was surprised by New Mexico. However, New Mexico ranks #50 in education, #48 for crime, #45 for economy, and #44 in infrastructure.

I moved to Florida from NYC eight years ago and have not regretted it once. Yes, Florida has shortcomings, but it is getting better in many respects, and the wealth is coming to South Florida in a big way and bringing with it talent, intellect, business, and culture. Far more good restaurants here today than in 2017.

Of the top 10 ranked states, the only one I could be a resident of is Florida.

Quick Bites

Another crazy week in markets with large drawdowns only to see a sharp rally Friday. On the week, the S&P fell 2.3% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.5% despite the 2%+ on Friday for each. Big tech shares that were rattled earlier this week saw a sharp recovery on Friday. Nvidia shares popped more than 5%. Tesla jumped nearly 4%, and Meta Platforms gained close to 3%. Amazon and Apple also rose. Too many headlines to address, but tariffs were a big driver coupled with weaker consumer concerns from numerous companies. On a positive note, the 2nd chart outlines the 30 times since 2009 that the S&P has fallen from its peak of greater than 5%. The point is that just because there is a pullback does not mean the end of the world. Treasuries were volatile and ended at 4.32% for the 10-year or unchanged on the week. Given the severity of the sell-off, I am not surprised by a rally, but I am not convinced we have seen the end of the volatility.
Before reading this article, I was not familiar with the Dow Theory. It holds that moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average must be confirmed by transport stocks, and vice versa, to be sustained. As of Thursday’s close, the 20-member Dow Jones Transportation Average — a barometer of consumer and industrial demand — has slumped 19% from its November peak, teetering near so-called bear-market territory. Taken together with the 9.3% slump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from its December record, the indicator is flashing a worrisome sign for the broader stock market, which has been hammered in recent days by deepening concerns over the economy and the Trump administration’s aggressive stance on tariffs.
I have written a great deal about the US consumer and called for them to roll over months ago (I was too early). Now, everywhere we look, more companies are lowering guidance and talking about the consumer (Walmart, Target, Kohl’s Dick’s, American Eagle, Costco, Foot Locker, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, Lowe’s, Macy’s, Delta, Southwest Air, American Air, Mc Donald’s…). This WSJ article, “Consumer Angst Is Striking All Income Levels - Signs of weakness are showing up in spending on everything from basics to luxuries,” outlines a weakening consumer. American consumers have had a lot to fret about so far this year, between never-ending tariff headlines, stubborn inflation and most recently, fresh fears about a recession. These concerns seem to be hitting spending by both rich and poor, across necessities and luxuries, all at once. Take low-income consumers: Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon said “budget-pressured” customers are showing stressed behaviors: They are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month because their “money runs out before the month is gone.” McDonald’s said in its most recent earnings call that the fast-food industry has had a “sluggish start” to the year, in part because of weak demand from low-income consumers. Things don’t look much better on the higher end. American consumers’ spending on the luxury market, which includes high-end department stores and online platforms, fell 9.3% in February from a year earlier, worse than the 5.9% decline in January, according to Citi’s analysis of its credit-card transactions data. Citi’s analysis of its U.S. credit-card data shows that spending has fallen across most retail categories. In the retail quarter to date, spending plunged 12% and 22% on apparel and athletic footwear, respectively, compared with a year earlier. This CNBC article suggests consumers are starting to crack as well. In March, consumer sentiment slumped to the lowest levels since 2022 with the survey at 57.9 (-10.5%) and relative to the estimate of 63.2. The WSJ article, “Shoppers Are Skimping on Cigarettes, Doritos and Twinkies. U.S. convenience store sales fell 4.3% by volume in the year ended Feb. 23,” adds fuel to the softening consumer story. Another related article, “Is your money gone before it arrives?” shows how many Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. The last chart outlines the concerning growth in borrowers with debt-to-income ratios > 43%.
As part of the ‘great wealth transfer,’ more than $100 trillion is projected to change hands in the coming decades. A recent report from Cerulli Associates puts the total tally being passed to family members by 2048 at an estimated $124 trillion. Whether husbands are leaving money to their wives, or couples are passing a nest egg down to their children, “women will receive most of it,” said Kay Hope, research analyst at Bank of America Global Research. Roughly $54 trillion will go to surviving spouses — a shift also referred to as the “horizontal wealth transfer.” Among this group, 95% are women, according to Bank of America Institute’s recent women and wealth report. Another $47 trillion is expected to be passed down to women in younger generations as inherited wealth.

Real Estate

Manhattan apartment rents soared to a record high in February amid intense competition, including bidding wars in a more than a quarter of all deals.
New leases were signed at a median of $4,500 last month, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman. That’s up 6.4% from a year earlier, and $100 more than the previous record, reached in the summer of 2023. Bidding wars have become increasingly common in the hyper-competitive market, cultivated by real estate agents who urge potential tenants to offer to pay more than the asking price. Almost 27% of last month’s new leases were signed after bidding wars, a record share. The prices to live in NYC are just out of control and clearly return to the office is part of the story. Basically $3,500/month median rent to live in Queens or Brooklyn? Now check out this story showing the rent growth in Newark (+17%).
This NY Post article, “Padlocked by the playground police — no wonder families flee NYC," reminds me of my time in NYC trying to raise a family. We lived on the Upper East Side, and on so many occasions when we tried to play in Central Park it was closed. In the article, a woman found the park closed, jumped the fence to play with her kids, and the cops came. Cities like NYC have a lot going for them but too much is going the other way. There is a reason many families are fleeing. Since 2020, NYC’s 5-and-under population has fallen 18%. I was playing catch with my son, Jack, on 74th and Park and it was awful to play on concrete with so many people constantly walking past us.
New home listings around DC are skyrocketing. Return to work, DOGE cuts, layoffs, and the new administration are leading to a substantial increase in listings around DC, including Alexandria (+46%), Arlington (+30%), Fairfax County (+23%), and Prince William County (+33%).

© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #769 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.

Best State Rankings

3-16-25

Video of the Day-Markets Discussion with Key Players

U.S. News & World Report’s Best States

Quick Bites

Politics

Middle East

Other Headlines

Health Related

Real Estate

Discussion about this post