WhatsApp

5-11-25

Opening Comments

My last note was about my ability to take credit for other people’s accomplishments. The most opened links were the low-calorie fruit for the immune system and the article on the psychology of wanting to leave early.

Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there. I hope you enjoy this special day with the family.

On the job front, a couple of firms are looking for experienced junior analysts in private credit.

I must admit that I don’t follow the Pope news very closely and was shocked at the election of an American from Chicago (Robert Prevost). He will be known as Pope Leo XIV. During the process, the 133 cardinals cast their ballots to elect the new pontiff and are not allowed to leave or contact the outside world until a leader is selected. The Vatican gave an unprecedented behind-the-scenes look just after Pope Leo XIV accepted the papacy.

Shockingly, the Knicks were up 2-0 going into game three Saturday against the Celtics. Friday night, these were the ticket prices from StubHub. Who can afford these prices, which do not include 20%+ service fees? I saw a floor ticket for $40k and a low seat behind the Knicks bench for $12k before service fees. The Knicks got crushed Saturday, so any fans who spent thousands on tickets could not be happy.

• Video of the Day-Surgeon Shows Denial Letter from United Healthcare

• Run Over By WhatsApp Chats

• Quick Bites

  • Markets

  • The Equity Market Regime Model

  • Trump Raising Taxes on Wealthy?

  • New Amazon Robot with Human Touch

  • 80-Year Happiness Study Findings (Harvard)

• Tariffs

• Politics

• Middle East

• Other Headlines

• Health

• Real Estate

  • Best States Ranked (FL #6)

  • Naples, Florida Growing Wealthy Population

  • Other R/E Headlines (SALT, FL R/E Decline, Punta Gorda, FL)

Video of the Day-Surgeon Shows a Denial Letter from United Healthcare

I want to be crystal clear. Luigi Mangione is no hero in my eyes. He murdered the CEO of United Healthcare, and now Luigi has a cult following. I am disgusted by it. He has raised over $1mm from supporters. California proposed the Luigi Mangione Act. Disgusting. However, this 3-minute video done by a surgeon is concerning and shows why there is so much hate for the health insurance industry. A woman who needed care was denied. The surgeon suggested she could have died due to pulmonary embolisms. She was admitted to the hospital, and United Healthcare refused to cover her hospitalization. This is the kind of stuff that gives nutjobs fodder. Watch the 3-minute video.

Run Over By WhatsApp Chats

I have been honest with my readers that at 55 years old, technology is not my strong suit. I have a poor social media game and struggle to keep up with the latest and greatest tech. I am on WhatsApp and am getting RUN OVER by the volume of chats and messages. There are days when I have 500 unread messages and do not know how to manage the constant flow of new texts. I am on chat groups for so many things, and some I don’t even know how I got on or how to get off the lists. Some of my groups have multiple sub-lists. The result is that one group can lead to 10 or more sub-lists, and every time someone sends something, I have yet another unread message.

I am losing my mind as I miss some actual messages from people I would like to have seen in a timely fashion. However, my screen is littered with so many chat groups that I cannot figure out how to manage them.

I was somehow placed on a trading chat with people who work on Wall Street, and every time they have a trade idea they send a WhatsApp. My phone vibrates every time someone sends a message, and my battery was getting drained by that group of messages alone. I finally figured out how to get off of it even though there were some interesting ideas.

If you need to reach me, send an email to rosenreport@gmail.com or text me. Do not send messages to me via WhatsApp and expect a response, as I cannot figure out how to deal with that inbox. In speaking with other folks of my vintage, I am not alone in feeling overwhelmed by this application. If you Google “Overwhelmed by WhatsApp,” the number of stories is astounding. There are pages of articles on WhatsApp anxiety on the web.

Quick Bites

• Stocks rallied Wednesday with the announcement of a UK preliminary trade deal that will include a 10% baseline tariff. Auto imports will go from 25% to 10% as well. Trump mentioned that this 10% deal will be at the “low end” of future deals. On the week, stocks fell slightly with the S&P -.5%, and Nasdaq-.3%. I am surprised that despite the tariff uncertainty that equity markets are largely unchanged since Liberation Day (chart below). The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.38% or +5bps on the week, as investors await more trade deals. Although gold is slightly off its all-time highs, it is +24% YTD. BTC closed at $103k and was +6% on the week with strong ETF demand. I had sold 15% of my BTC a couple of weeks ago.

  

  

• A key stock-market indicator has entered a phase historically associated with the worst return prospects for the S&P 500 Index after trade fears gripped financial markets and dimmed Corporate America’s outlook for profit growth. The Equity Market Regime Model, a Bloomberg Intelligence model that tracks the benchmark stock gauge and clusters periods into three phases — accelerated growth (green), moderate growth (yellow) and decline (red) — fell into the cautious red zone in March and April. The seven prior instances have been associated with a 5.6% average drop in the S&P 500 in the next 12 months. The current red regime is the model’s first bearish signal since February 2022, when anxiety about the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path sent US stocks into a bear market.

  

  

• Trump is considering a tax increase on the wealthy to 39.6% to fund his spending and tax package, and this CNBC article looks at historic rates. In a phone call Thursday, NBC reported, Trump pressed House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to raise the top income tax rate on the wealthiest Americans and close the so-called carried interest loophole. The proposal would revert the 37% rate to 39.6% for individuals making $2.5 million or more per year. However, the idea doesn’t have support from Republican members of Congress.

  

• In the last couple years, I have written extensively about AI and robotics changing our lives. I have also cited the chart I am including again for the 4th time. It shows the number of employees it takes to generate $1mm in revenue for the S&P 500 companies. It went from over eight down to two in the past 35 years. Based on innovations such as the new Amazon tech robot that has a human-like sense of touch, we are heading to .5 people to generate $1mm in revenue. The machines, called Vulcan, have cutting-edge technology that learn to “feel” and has a human-like sense of touch. By doing so, they can carry out detailed picking and packing in warehouses that until now could only be done by people. It paves the way for the robots to take over jobs currently done by workers in Amazon’s vast warehouses.

  

• I have mentioned to the 80-year Harvard study on happiness and more results came out. Speaking at the inaugural New York Times Well Festival on Wednesday, psychiatrist and researcher Dr. Robert Waldinger announced he and his team were “shocked” by “the biggest predictor of who was going to live long and stay healthy.” Waldinger, the director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development — the longest-running scientific study of adult life — revealed it was “how connected you were to other people and particularly the warmth of your connection to other people.” “The best hypothesis is that it has to do with stress, that in fact relationships — when they’re good — are stress relievers.” He went so far as to say people who are intentional about keeping in touch and fostering relationships had a “superpower” that “went under the radar.” I have often written about the power of networking and relationships, and it turns out Harvard’s 80-year happiness study agrees.

  

Tariffs

• Trump Hails Progress After First Day of US-China Trade Talks

  • This came out late Saturday and is a positive development. However, just days prior, he suggested China tariffs should be 80%.

    

• Treasury's Bessent on trade talks: US getting 'good offers,' most deals to be concluded by end of year

  • Maybe I am missing something, but this sounds like a disaster if we are still talking about major trade deals in the fall.

• Trump’s deal with the UK sends a clear message: 10% tariffs are here to stay

  • The UK is not a particularly important trading partner to the US (#9 in 2024). Under the deal, the U.K. can export 100,000 vehicles each year at a 10% rate, with any additional vehicles facing 25% duties. British steelmakers and the aluminum industry will be able to export tariff-free, down from the 25% rate that the U.S. imposed in February. Remember, the US has a trade surplus with the UK. If all these countries need to pay 10% or more to export to the US, there will be billions of revenue associated with it for the US government over time.

    

  

• First Chinese freight ship goods with Trump’s 145%-plus tariffs arriving in U.S.

• Trump says 10% is the floor for tariffs; ‘Some will be much higher’

• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls tariffs ‘too large, too big and too aggressive’

• Toyota sees 21% full-year profit decline as tariffs take a bite

• With foreign tourists boycotting the U.S., businesses brace for falling sales

• Shopify stock slips on light guidance, company notes tariff ‘uncertainty’

• Citadel CEO Ken Griffin says ‘it’s terrifying to watch’ as tariffs open doors to crony capitalism

  • Remember, Griffin donated $100mm to Trump.

Politics

• Putin says ready for ‘direct talks’ with Ukraine but Zelensky says he must agree ceasefire first

• Trump calls Fed Chair Jerome Powell a ‘fool’ after central bank keeps rates steady

  • Here we go again. It is beneath the office of the President. Trump: your tariff policies are inflationary. Powell cannot cut rates until you solve the mess you created with your poorly thought-out tariff policy.

• ‘You Have No Timeline?!’ Senator Gobsmacked by FBI Director Kash Patel Showing Up at Budget Hearing Without a Budget

• Trump administration ‘looking at’ suspending habeas corpus for migrants, Stephen Miller says

  • Writ of habeas corpus — the constitutional right to challenge in court the legality of a person’s detention by the government.

• Trump offers illegal migrants an ‘exit bonus’ — and ‘free flight out of our country’ — via self-deport executive order

• FBI opens formal criminal probe into New York AG Letitia James over alleged mortgage fraud

  • How ironic.

• D.C.-area economy starts to show deep impacts of federal spending cuts

• This is a 20-second video of Bernie Sanders talking about his private travel. Do as I say, not want I do. Remember, he was all in on the Green New Deal, yet it is ok for him to fly privately. You cannot make this stuff up.

• U. Chicago Prof Cancels Midterm, Tells Students to Join Anti-Trump Protest Instead

• Pam Bondi Spilled Epstein Secrets to Bogus ‘Nanny’ at Brunch

  • There is video evidence of this discussion. More sloppiness.

Middle East

• Arrested Iranian nationals were planning attack on Israeli Embassy in London

• Israel vows to ‘defend ourselves alone’ after Trump strikes truce with Houthis

  • I find Trump is generally very supportive of Jews and Israel. I’m not happy about this shift—Trump has agreed to stop bombing the Houthis in exchange for them not targeting U.S. cargo ships.

  • Katz vows strong response to latest Houthi missile attack in Israel

• India and Pakistan agree to a ceasefire after worst military escalation in decades

  • This ceasefire comes after major escalations with dozens killed and saber rattling. However, explosions were heard hours after the truce started.

    

• Dozens of masked anti-Israel protesters arrested after storming Columbia library, shoving past security as Ivy Leaguers prep for finals

  • Trump, stop funding these schools.

• Trump admin yanks $2.2 billion in federal funding from Harvard in legal battle over antisemitism on campus

• The neo-Nazi 764 cult is targeting kids as young as 9 — here are the warning signs your child is a victim, according to the FBI

• Anti-Israel mob descends on Brooklyn College in NYC as agitators brawl with police, get tased

• Columbia suspends more than 65 students for library protest

  • Great news. I am sure Trump’s pressure was a factor. How long are they suspended? Why not expelled?

• MI AG Drops All Charges Against U. Michigan Anti-Israel Protesters

• Kanye West releases 'Heil Hitler' song featuring audio clip of Nazi leader's speech

• Pulitzer Prize Awarded To Palestinian Writer Accused Of Virulent And Antisemitic Commentary

Other Headlines

• Mitu Gulati on Whether Trump Could Restructure US Debt

  • Interesting podcast about the potential restructuring of US Treasuries. My personal view is that this is not off the table based on growing deficits, and this UVA professor has an interesting perspective.

• Tech’s strong ad sales are showing signs of cracking from Trump’s trade war

  

• Standard Chartered analyst apologizes for $120,000 bitcoin price call, says target ‘may be too low’

• Google agrees to pay Texas $1.4 billion data privacy settlement

• Lyft closes 28% higher after issuing buyback and posting bookings growth

• Restaurant Brands earnings miss as Burger King, Popeyes and Tim Hortons post same-store sales declines

• CrowdStrike announces 5% job cuts, says AI is ‘reshaping every industry’

• Tesla’s Inventory of Unsold Cybertrucks Skyrockets, Despite Offering $10K Discounts and Concealing Listings

• Palantir now among 10 most valuable U.S. tech companies — its earnings multiple is astronomical

• Billionaire Ken Griffin reveals the ‘wake-up moment’ in his 20s that helped drive him to success

  • Take risks early in your career.

• Michael Kratsios — Trump’s go-to tech policy guy — reveals how the US needs to step up its innovation plan

• Money Worries Crushing Mental Health: 7 in 10 Americans Report Peak Financial Stress

• Newark Airport radar screens terrifyingly go dark again — two weeks after outage wreaked havoc

  • A reader was stuck in Arizona given the issues at Newark. I spoke with a commercial pilot who told me, “DON’T fly into Newark.”

• NYC demands Brooklyn landlords pay $160K to relocate squatters who took over their properties

  • The absurdity of NYC never ceases to amaze me. One of the squatters is a convicted sex offender, and the city officials want the landlords to pay $160k to relocate people who ILLEGALLY took over their properties. Nothing could get me to invest in rentals in NYC. In Florida, the squatters go to jail.

• The High-School Juniors With $70,000-a-Year Job Offers

  • Companies with shortages of skilled workers look to shop class to recruit future hires; ‘like I’m an athlete getting all this attention from all these pro teams.’ More kids should be going to work, not a four-year college, given the cost-benefit analysis is getting out of whack.

• LI teen tech whiz Zach Yadegari — creator of $30M health app — makes college decision after all 8 Ivy League schools rejected him

  • Kid has a 4.0 GPA, 34 ACT and has made over $30mm in high school. He was rejected from 15 out of 18 schools and is going to UMaimi.

• Your Resume Is a Waste of Time: 8 Better Ways to Get Hired for the Job You Want

• Wisconsin mom safe after vanishing without a trace more than 60 years ago

  • Crazy story of a woman who left without a trace, leaving her husband and two young children behind. She was being abused by her husband. Must have been awful to leave her kids. She was 20 years old.

• Bill Gates to give away $200 billion by 2045, accuses Musk of harming poor

  • Bill, the Rosen Report could use a mere $1bn of your charitable donation. I will use it to fund my mentoring program and buy myself a “few” things.

• Mile-wide underwater volcano ready to erupt off the West Coast

  • Neat video.

• The Who retiring as Pete Townsend says 'Everyone needs to know the truth'

  • I love the Who and have seen them at least five times. However, the last time I saw them a few years ago, it was an embarrassment. Daltrey kept forgetting the words and sounded awful.

Health

• 3 things I’d never do as a neurologist — and the lesser-known signs of dementia to look out for

• Older people with this trait may be lowering their risk of dementia

• Marijuana is extremely dangerous to the fetus in the womb, study finds

• Is your job killing you? All the ways overworking can destroy your health — and what you can do about it

• Shingles vaccine has unexpected effect on heart health

  • Vaccinated adults have a 23% lower risk of cardiovascular disease, study finds

• Music conductor with Parkinson’s sees symptoms improve with deep brain stimulation

Real Estate

• US News and World Reports came out with the “Best States.” You need to take these with a grain of salt, but felt Florida’s continued climb up was interesting. It is now #6 overall and #1 in economy and #1 in education. Check out your favorite states to see how they rank.

• This Post article is about Naples, Florida and the growth of uber-wealthy living there. Once a modest fishing town known for its snowbird retirees, Naples, Florida, has quietly reinvented itself as one of America’s most exclusive communities. With its mix of Gulf-front mansions, cultural appeal and low-profile opulence, the city is drawing a steady tide of billionaires — and earning comparisons to Palm Beach in the process. “It’s a quiet enclave of luxury living,” Naples luxury Realtor PJ Smith told the Daily Mail. “The famous, uber-wealthy live in Naples under the radar and they love it.” Over the past few years, Naples has experienced a wave of record-setting real estate deals. Billionaire David Hoffmann recently purchased an $85 million mansion originally built for a private owner. But that transaction was eclipsed by a $225 million off-market sale involving a 15-acre compound with three separate estates — a new high watermark for Florida’s housing market. In February 2024, a 17,000-plus-square-foot estate situated on 5 acres was listed for $295 million, earning the title of the most expensive home in America at the time. But in January, the price of the home was reduced to $210 million, where it still remains on the market. Last year, U.S. News & World Report named the city the top place to live in the country, describing it as the “preferred retirement spot for the rich, powerful and cold-averse.”

• Talk of increasing the SALT deduction to $30k according to this CNBC article.

• Florida’s COVID-era housing boom is over — biggest decline in prices in more than a decade

• The biggest housing inventory spike in America is coming in Punta Gorda, Florida.

  

• Denver housing inventory for sale is now running 100% over long-term average

  

© 2025 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #784 ©Copyright 2025 Written By Eric Rosen.