Three NYC Restaurant Reviews
11-27-24
Opening Comments
My last note was about the early alarm clock blues when you need to wake up to catch a flight. Readers Dave and Rich suggested they use a 2nd backup alarm on the watch or iPad to ensure they do not oversleep. The most opened links were the ridiculously woke Jaguar ad that I crushed and why Howard Marks is buying up “uninventable” Chinese assets. A close third was Tom Brady’s Indian Creek estate that the author had materially understated the value of.
Happy Thanksgiving to all my readers and followers. Travel safely and enjoy downtime with family and friends. Another AI-generated picture is below. Early send to allow people who are traveling to read the RR on the plane.
I wrote a Quick Bites section on NYC hotel prices and explained why the costs have skyrocketed and availability is limited. Four eagle-eyed readers (Simon, Josh, Jeff & Ed) reminded me that I missed other reasons for the chaos in the hotel market. The NYC crackdown of AirBnB and VRBO rentals are also playing a factor. Also contributing is the fact that hotel unions pushed the NYC politicians to enact a requirement for a “special permit” to build a new hotel in NYC, which basically requires union approval. Another issue is the fact that union wages at hotels are crushing profitability. Leave it to the idiots running NYC and NY State to wreak havoc (rent control laws, DAs no longer prosecuting most crimes, vilification of police, allowing Jew hate, AirBnB laws, congestion pricing, new hotel build rules, COVID mandates….).
A month ago, the weather turned in South Florida and now we are living the dream.
Markets
Credit Market Shorting
Private Investment Valuation Mess (Personal Examples)
The Yellen Treasury Debacle
Thank You Dr. Fauci-New Documentary. Explosive.
$34mm Jupiter House Sale-Admiral’s Cove
House Buying by Political Affiliation
Pictures of The Day-Life Expectancy vs Health Expenditure
I have been very critical of our deficits and entitlement spending. I have written extensively about people living longer and ballooning healthcare costs. I felt these charts paint a bleak picture of how the USA is performing relative to other developed nations. We have the lowest life expectancy (some reasons for that are fentanyl and inner-city murders), which disproportionately impacts the lifespan of young men. However, look at what we are spending per capita on healthcare relative to other countries. It is generally double or more. As of 2018, Israel is at $2.5k/year, UK $4k/year, Denmark $5k/year and Germany $5.5k year. The US was at $10k as of 2018 and only getting worse, as can be seen in other charts. As of 2022, the US is up to $13.5k/year on healthcare cost per capita, but other countries are not increasing at the same rate. According to Eurostat, the average expenditure per person for healthcare in the EU was € 3.7k in 2022. We need a better solution to the US healthcare system.
Three NYC Restaurant Reviews
Despite only two nights in NYC, I ate more meals than I am proud to admit. I started with a late lunch at Karuma Zushi in midtown. I have a history there, as my old boss, John Steinhardt, took me when I was promoted. John knows the finer things in life and Karuma Zushi is high-end, indeed. It is old-school on the 2nd floor and pure Japan. The room is not fancy and a bit dated, but the sushi is very high quality. My issue is the price is too high with $300 Omakase. I just do not think it is worth the price, but the sushi is solid. Food-8
In the past few weeks, a reader sent me an article entitled, “Borgo is NYC’s best new Italian restaurant in eons.” With that kind of headline, it means I am running there. Life is about expectations management and the article gave me unrealistic expectations. Yes, I enjoyed Borgo and would go back, but it is not the best new Italian in “eons.” The fried squash was amazing and I highly recommend it. The combo of squash, cheese, chili and honey hit the spot. The ravioli was solid as well and the large restaurant (140 seats) is always full. Good scene and vibe and cool bar. Go to Borgo, just know it is very good, not the best of the best. Andrew Tarlow (owner) has a recipe for success and is behind Brooklyn hotspots Diner and Marlow & Sons. Food 8.25
My favorite newer Italian in NYC is Massara from the owners of Rezdora. Everything about Massara makes me happy. The dining room, service, music, food, wine… all dazzle. Good luck getting into the 20th and Broadway hotspot. The manager, Samantha, was the hostess at Rezdora (sister restaurant and Michelin Star Northern Italian). The food at both Rezdora and Massara is amazing but I would say the portions are small and meant to share. At Massara, order a lot of items and take a couple bites of each. The pizzas are out of this world and I am not a pizza guy. All the pastas are delicious. My favoritse were the Quadratti, Cheesemakers Raviolini and Corteccia. Even the broccoli rabe was cooked to perfection. The ambiance is amazing too; one song was Jay-Z, then Led Zeppelin. How often does that happen? I have been to Massara three times and trust me, I am RUNNING back there. Go early and sit at the bar upstairs (although there is another one on the 1st floor). It opens at 5 pm and fills up fast. I just wrote about expectation management, but you won’t be disappointed. The price does add up, given you end up ordering a ton of pasta dishes in the $25-30 range, but you will leave smiling. The orange and fennel gelato threw me for a loop in a good way and the torte was fantastic. I will admit that the fried squash was better at Borgo, but everything else is better at Massara. Food-9.5
Quick Bites
Trump nominated Bessent for Treasury Secretary and stock and bond markets reacted positively. The former Soros Hedge Fund partner and founder of Square Group is viewed as a strong candidate. Bessent favors a three-pronged approach that addresses worries over the ballooning national debt and deficits: growing the economy at a 3% rate, knocking down the budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product — less than half where it stands now — and adding three million barrels a day in oil production. Stocks were +.3-+1% on the news and bond yields fell with the 10 year -8bps on the day to 4.28%, after being 4.44% just days ago. I am all for fiscal responsibility and Bessent is suggesting a step in the right direction. I believe we need to be even more aggressive on deficit reduction. After hitting $98.5k on Monday, Bitcoin fell and is back to $95k.
My career was spent in Fixed Income markets, most notably investing and trading Credit Products. This Bloomberg article, “Credit Is So Hot That Traders Are Building Shorts,” is interesting in many ways. Yahoo version to allow those without Bloomberg to read. In summary, Credit Markets are so hot (spreads so tight) that more people within the space are looking to short the market or bet that spreads will widen. Bond prices drop to create spread widening due to the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields. Corporate bond shorts have risen 25% to almost $336 billion in the past year compared with a rise of 10.6% in institutional longs to $4.6 trillion, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The rise in shorts comes as a gauge of complacency reaches the highest level since 2021, the amount of distressed debt falls to the lowest this year and US economic growth continues to confound skeptics. But expectations that incoming President Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and immigration will boost inflation worry economists, leading some fund overseers to hedge their bets. My career was made by shorting the world in 2007 through shorting bonds, buying CDS (another shorting mechanism), buying put options and shorting stock. My best trade ever is outlined in my report from January 2024, where I shorted Bear Stearns stock during the Global Financial Crisis.
I have written in the past about my private investments. Yes, I have had some that worked out very well (10-30 times my money), but many of my venture investments went to zero. Just a few months ago Goldman claimed to investors they had made 4.3x on Northvolt. Now, their funds will write down their $900m stake to zero. For example, I invested in a venture deal which looked like a HUGE home run. I made the investment at approximately a $60mm valuation. They raised money as high as $1.6bn in 2022 and I looked brilliant. The company raised $260mm privately in multiple rounds, and another $30mm from DARPA (non dilutive grants). On paper, I made millions. I wanted to sell some of it but there was never a liquidity event. Just last week, I got a note informing me that the company was no longer solvent (2nd picture). My point is simple. Until you monetize and have a liquidity event, don’t count your chickens. This is the 2nd time this has happened to me in one year. It looked like I was up 20 times on my investment only to get back ZERO on a fintech company as well. I was just told of Bowery Farming by a friend who was burned. The company raised $300mm at $2.3bn post-money valuation late in 2021-lead investors were Walmart, Fidelity, GGV, Google Ventures, KKR (debt) and ceased operations 3 weeks ago. Yes, some of the hottest privates have liquidity (Space X & Open AI, Databricks), but those are limited. Many funds are delusional about how they carry these illiquid private investments. The issue is that you are paying fees on the higher valuations that may not be justified and may be buying into a higher Net Asset Value (NAV) than reality. Make sure you understand how large illiquids are as a percentage of the portfolio you may be investing in. I will be making VERY few of these investments going forward. When institutional investors want to sell minority stakes in private companies, they tend to sell at big discounts to the stated valuation.
I have been extremely critical of both the Fed (Powell) and the Treasury (Yellen) for the awful “inflation is transitory” call and the ramifications. All these senior leaders in the Fed and Treasury have fancy PhDs from the best schools in the country. Yellen’s mismanagement during the pandemic will end up costing US tax payers TRILLIONS over coming years. When interest rates were zero and demand for US Treasuries was off the charts, Yellen could have termed out Federal debt at rates at 1% or less. Remember, the 10-Year Treasury yield was 32bps March 2020 and now is 4.4%. We have trillions of debt that has come due and more maturing and will be financed between 4-5%. What a catastrophic miss. This article, “Janet Yellen departs from office — as she leaves a trail of mess behind her,” is hard to argue. The 10-year Treasury yield chart since 1962 shows that we were at major lows and not enough longer-term treasuries were issued under Yellen. Corporate America locked in low rates, as did homeowners, but the “brilliant” PhDs at the Treasury Department did not, leaving US taxpayers holding the bag.
I wrote extensively about my views that COVID started due to a lab leak, lockdowns were onerous, natural immunity was preferred and called out Fauci calling for his firing before it was in fashion. I was cancelled constantly due to my views and feel strongly the public was gaslighted on multiple topics around the pandemic. Americans were duped by the press, big Pharma, China, the WHO, CDC, and politicians. The new documentary, “Thank You Dr. Fauci,” was done by an award winning director, Jenner Furst, a self-described progressive. I watched this documentary and it was eye-opening. It is $9.99 and 90 minutes long. Even the director of the CDC, Robert Redfield (2018-2021) was gaslit, and blocked for suggesting he backed the lab leak theory. The conflicts of interest between the NIH, Fauci, big pharma, EcoHealth Alliance, and scientists relying on NIH grants are astounding. Fauci is a lot of things. A hero is not one of them. The implications and connections are quite frankly concerning and need to be properly investigated. I am even more convinced than I was before of Fauci’s nefarious behavior. Tens of trillions of dollars and millions of lives were lost. There are so many cover-ups outlined in this documentary and there is strong evidence the pandemic started months earlier than thought. Wait. China lied again? Who would believe that? Yes, I am being sarcastic. So many people look like idiots here and the cover-up is deeper and wider than you can believe. Anyone who is a doubter about the origins of COVID or a supporter of Fauci needs to watch this documentary. When in doubt, follow the money. Google Project Defuse. Crazy stuff there.
Election
This chart was interesting regarding the time for the Senate to confirm Presidential nominations.
Donald Trump selects Kevin Hassett to lead National Economic Council
Trump picks Jay Bhattacharya, who backed COVID herd immunity, to lead National Institutes of Health
Between Kennedy Jr., Makary, Bhattacharya, and others, the NIH, FDA and health system in general will have a much different feel. These new picks questioned the COVID protocols and were vilified for it.
What’s next for Kamala Harris?
I don’t feel Harris should run in 2028. However, polling suggests she is wanted by Dems. She should be Governor of CA when Newsom moves on. Her policies and politics match perfectly with CA. A UC Berkely poll found nearly 50% of CA voters would likely support her for Gov.
Trump vows an additional 10% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico
The tariff would be in retaliation from illegal immigration and drug trafficking and would remain in place until these stop (Bank of America note).
Let’s get the gang members out of our country.
Judge agrees to dismiss Donald Trump's 2020 election interference case
Biden-bashing Democrat Wall Street investor Whitney Tilson to run for NYC mayor
Whitney is a reader and a friend. He has grown concerned about the condition of NYC and is vowing to make tough decisions to improve it.
Elon Musk on what the US can “learn from India”
Election integrity is questioned when some states take weeks to count votes. How is this possible in 2024? Thankfully, we had a clear election winner.
Middle East
The horrific attacks on October 7th of 2023 unleashed antisemitic attacks across the globe. We have seen a sharp increase in antisemitism in the US, Europe, Middle East, South American, Australia and elsewhere. Just two weeks ago, Jews were attacked following a soccer match in Amsterdam. Now, there was an Israeli locksmith who was murdered in Memphis after being lured out for a job. There are fears that Aviv Broek (21 years old) was killed due to antisemitism. A 28-year-old rabbi was murdered in the UAE last week as well.
Hezbollah fires about 250 rockets and other projectiles into Israel in heaviest barrage in weeks
Gov’t says it is cutting all ties with the ‘Haaretz’ newspaper
Market forces are coming for Harvard, Columbia and other toxically woke universities
The article is about alumni donations drying up. Nothing makes me happier. These schools allow Jew hate. The Jews should stop giving and stop sending their kids. There is a reason the Rosen Family has been focused on top schools in the South. Jews are hugely philanthropic and when they stop giving, it hurts the entities relying on their generosity.
Other Headlines
Data centers powering artificial intelligence could use more electricity than entire cities
Think about the ramifications if he is right. People will earn less, given fewer hours worked, and they will live longer, meaning they will need more money in retirement. The consequences are serious and will only further hurt the massive hole that entitlements are in today (underfunding). We need to means test, raise the retirement age, and raise the annual funding cap now.
Farming Robot Kills 200,000 Weeds Per Hour With Lasers
Amazing short video in the link. Many jobs will be disrupted over the next 10 years, but the world will be so much more efficient.
Elon Musk said the F-35's makers are 'idiots' for still building manned jets as drone tech rises
Macy’s says employee hid up to $154 million in expenses, delaying Q3 earnings
Best Buy cuts full-year forecast due to softer demand for consumer electronics
Bluesky Overtakes Threads as Liberals Flee MAGA Trolls on X
App and website usage of Bluesky rose more than 500 percent following President-elect Donald Trump’s election win, raking in 3.5 million daily users. The platform still only has around 21.5 million users as of Nov. 22.
Thanksgiving travel is cranking up. Will the weather cooperate?
2.9mm expected through TSA Wednesday. The Wednesday before Thanksgiving in 2020-1.1mm, 2021-1.4mm, 2022-2.5mm & 2023-2.7mm.
Wait. Open borders and no consequences for crimes lead to chaos for law-abiding citizens. Tom Homan will take this more seriously than others.
Homeless man’s alleged killing spree exposes NYC’s ‘whole rotten system’
Read this CNN article on the system failing citizens of NYC. The man was in court one month before the attacks. He served time for attempted assault on a corrections officer and was back in court for stealing a $1,500 bowl. His lawyer asked for him to be released and the judge ordered supervised release despite “six failures to appear” in court. The release did not work out so well for the innocent victims. Bragg and the soft-on-crime DAs must GO!
Progressive soft-on-crime policies have hurt Americans and corporations. The only people benefiting are criminals.
Crazy crime that seems as though it has been solved.
Lets not forget all the BLM scandals about money from the founder and senior executives. Also, only 33% of BLM funds were given to charities. The money given to BLM from corporate America was staggering.
Judge makes ruling in case that decides fate of San Jose State’s transgender volleyball controversy
Walmart rolls back DEI policies, becoming latest US firm to join growing trend
Parents are worried that their anger might be influencing their children. Here’s what experts say
These countries will pay you up to $90,000 to move there right now
Freshman enrollment is down at US colleges — and after the past few years, it’s no wonder
1 in 4 people still carrying weight from holidays last year!
Hey Larry, I want to go to Mars. Leave me $10bn.
Las Vegas GP: F1 drivers complain about marijuana smell
They are driving 200mph in heavy gear with helmets and can smell weed?
Russian food prices are soaring — but no one dares blame Putin and the war
Butter +30% since last December. Central bank hiked interest rates to 21% and it is not slowing down inflation.
UK and France 'in talks' to deploy troops to Ukraine over fears of US removing support
Real Estate
Seed magnate Ronald Holden and his wife, Arlene Holden, sold their 1.1-acre waterfront estate in the gated Admirals Cove neighborhood for $34 million, making it the most expensive home ever sold in Jupiter. I came very close to moving to Admiral’s Cove. It is my favorite community in Jupiter with amazing amenities (45 holes of golf, a massive marina, a beautiful gym, rackets sports, multiple restaurants, a convenience store, 31 room hotel…). Most homes are on the water. It is close to the Jupiter Inlet. Just like other high-end communities in South Florida, Admiral’s Cove prices have skyrocketed.
New data from Realtor.com shows a partisan divide in housing market sentiment after Donald Trump’s presidential election victory. Republicans have increased optimism, while Democrats are hesitant about home-buying plans. Morning Consult’s survey in early November found that roughly 20% of Republicans report being more likely to purchase a home due to the election outcome. In contrast, nearly a quarter of Democrats indicate they’re now less likely to enter the housing market in the coming year.
© 2024 The Rosen Report LLC. All rights reserved. Does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult with your lawyers and professional financial advisers. Rosen Report™ #738 ©Copyright 2024 Written By Eric Rosen.
