I'll Impress Ya with Contessa. It is a MUST Go.
11-23-22
Opening Comments
Happy Thanksgiving to all my loyal Rosen Report readers. I hope everyone has a safe holiday and is able to spend time with family and friends. My wife and daughter, Julia, went to NY to spend Thanksgiving with my wife’s family. Jack and I stayed in Florida in 80-degree weather and hosted a smaller Thanksgiving with some friends. I turn the big 53 on Friday, which is concerning as it seems like a week ago I was 35. People always told me how fast life goes by and now I can offially agree with them.
Lots of good feedback on my last note, “My Failed Crypto Experiment+Big High-End Watch Section,” which had a 70% open rate. One person suggested that I neglected to mention that the larger crypto firms (Coinbase, Digital Currency Group, Ripple, Andreesen Horowitz, Blockchain Capital) were fighting regulation by lobbing both parties. It is a point I should have made and apologize for the oversight. Readers pointing out mistakes makes the piece better. I write this solo and get many ideas from readers who send me charts, links, stories or subject to write about in the Rosen Report.
On the All-In Podcast, Chamath talked of an employee who works at BOTH Meta and a tech start-up and receives two full salaries ($140k & $280k) totaling $420k/year for over two years. Given work from home, neither company knows of the deceit. The employee allegedly works a TOTAL 20-22 hours/week. Yes, we have a productivity problem. The comment happens at the 1:16.3 mark of the podcast.
My son, Jack, and I may be heading to Bimini on my boat on Friday for the weekend. If I go, no report on Sunday. The Wahoo fishing has been good over there.
Pictures of the Day-67 Pound Goldfish
I'll Impress Ya with Contessa. It is a MUST Go.
Quick Bites
Markets
Savings Rate Crashing/Debt Levels Rising
Ideas to Improve Congress (Videos)
Smoke & Mirrors-The Deceit of Social Media
Other Headlines
Crime Headlines
Real Estate
High-End NYC vs Miami Performance since 2017
Investor Buying of R/E Down Sharply
Other R/E Headlines
Picture of the Day-Check Out a 67 Pound Goldfish
A UK fisherman became the envy of anglers everywhere after reeling in a nearly 70-pound monster goldfish — potentially the world’s largest. Andy Hackett, 42, landed the behemoth, aptly nicknamed The Carrot, while fishing at Bluewater Lakes in Champagne, France, one of the world’s premier carp fisheries. Not a goldfish per se, the Fanta-colored freak of nature is actually a hybrid species of leather carp and koi carp, ornamental fish commonly found in ponds. Yes, he let it go and the fish is estimated to be 20 years old.
I'll Impress Ya with Contessa. It is a MUST Go.
I was invited to dinner in Miami on Monday, 11/14 at Contessa in the Design District. It is yet another Major Food Groups eatery and let me end the suspense; you MUST go. It is a Northern Italian restaurant which uses less tomato sauce than Southern Italian food, and generally and there is more butter consumed in the North than the South. I am generally disappointed in restaurants, especially when I get the bill, but that was not the case at Contessa. The team at Major Food does a great job of establishing fantastic ambiance with the lighting, furniture and overall decor. The crowd was young, hip and attractive and well dressed.
I love the fact that the founders of Major Food Group are young, and they are growing their business in a massive way, especially in South Florida. To be fair, the Major Groups foray into Boca Raton has been disappointing relative to my experiences in NYC or Miami from every aspect, but most notably, the food/value. I have now been to 10 different Major Food Groups restaurants and some as many as a dozen times.
The restaurant has two levels, and we were seated upstairs in a corner booth. The picture above is downstairs. We started by ordering two pizzas which were very good despite the fact that I am not a big pizza lover. We had the Margherita and the Funghi (mushrooms). Both were better than expected. The service was snappy and they brought out the food shockingly quickly for a restaurant which was packed. The waiter was knowledgeable, friendly and quick to bring food and drink.
After we ate the pizza, we ordered entrees, and I almost questioned the speed out of the kitchen. The entrees came out in single digit minutes after ordering which almost defies logic. For entrees, Jon got the Fusilli Genovese (basil pesto with pine nuts) and he was raving about it. The dish looked beautiful.
Doc got the Spicy Lobster Capellini, and I took a bite, and everything was fantastic with a perfect cook on the pasta. The flavors were amazing, and it was the right amount of sauce.
Ken had the Branzino and felt it was very solid and John and John both got Lamb Chops Scottadito which also seemed to be a hit. I got an amazing Chicken Verde which was delicious. It is a half chicken with a host of herbs including thyme, sage, parsley and basil. The chicken was amazing and as tender and juicy as any I can recall. I can tell you that all the plates were wiped clean, including the side orders. I do not recall a meal with 5 adults who ate everything on the plate other than the bones.
We ordered a handful of desserts, and they gave us some extra. The showstopper was the Torta di Baci which was the best chocolate tort I have ever tasted. It was rich and creamy and wish we ordered another. The Crostata di Cillegia e Pistacchio was also a devoured.
In the end it was a fun night with a good group of people. Everything about Contessa works from the ambiance, crowd, service, food, drinks…. There is a 100% chance I go back and as a matter of fact, I went back last night with my son, Jack and good friend Rich. For me to go to a restaurant two times and drive 43 miles each way in 8 days is unheard of. We ordered a ton of food including meatballs, tuna crudo over artichoke hearts, pumpkin ravioli (no pumpkin, but sweet potato and butternut squash), Bolognese, Chicken Verde and the Ribeye Tagliata. All were good and did not disappoint. We all agreed that the Chicken Verde and ravioli won the show. I was not blown away by the meatballs or ribeye, but they were fine. Of course we did the chocolate torte again and it was remarkable. This time, we sat downstairs, and it was better for people watching, but the couch had an awkward shape making it a little uncomfortable. The service remained strong, but not at the lightening speed of the 1st experience.
I mentioned Contessa to a friend who happened to go a few days ago and raved about it as well. He is a thin guy 5’11”/150lbs, and loved his branzino so much, he ordered two of them.
When the bill came it was shockingly not offensive to me. It was by no means cheap, but for the quality of the experience, it was value, especially in today’s offensively priced world. I have two favorite Northern Italian restaurants now. Rezdora (my review attached) in NYC and Contessa. You can’t lose with either.
Food A
Service A+
Ambiance A+
Wine B-List-A short, one page list of primarily Italian wine with a little french and Americans sprinkled in as well. Quite fully priced.
Price-Shockingly Reasonable for the overall experience
Quick Bites
U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday in a choppy session as meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve showed that the central bank is looking to hand out smaller rate hikes in the coming months as inflation cools off. The Dow rose 96 points, or 0.28%, to 34,194. The S&P 500 gained 0.59% to close at 4,027, and the Nasdaq increased 0.99% to 11,285. Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting signaled that the central bank is seeing progress in its fight against high inflation and is looking to slow the pace of rate hikes, meaning smaller ones through the end of this year and into 2023. This should be no surprise and what I have been writing. I don’t view it as a positive, but more of what was baked into the market. Jobless claims data came in higher than expected at 240,000 for the week ending Nov. 19, where economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected 225,000. The result signals that the labor market may be weakening. Of note, oil is down to $77 and was -4.5% today on Russian price cap talks and building US gasoline inventories. Two through 10-year Treasury yields fell 4-7bps on the Fed minutes. The 10-year is now 3.69%.
The poor decision by the Fed to leave the punch bowl out too long with low rates and Quantitative Easing caused a sharp uptick in inflation. The charts below show the substantial decline in savings. Why? Inflation caused items to go up in price, and many Americans were forced to dip into savings accounts AND grow debt levels (2nd chart). I used the chart before showing mortgage debt at $12 trillion. Now being an all-time high makes sense given how much home prices have exploded, but the air is coming out of the housing market. The non-mortgage debt is up to $4.5 trillion and part of that is credit card debt which is growing rapidly and this link from the New York Fed has many good charts.
I am not extremely knowledgeable on the rules in Congress. However, I get frustrated by many things out of DC. For example, politician’s ability to trade stocks, the way bills are created and brought to vote, the ability of politicians who become lobbyists, and many others. There are two videos and the first one is Matt Gaetz. He is not my favorite politician, but I feel all sides should agree with his ideas in the 2-minute video, and he suggests that Democrats will vote for his amendments. The 2nd video is longer (15 minutes), but for those who want to better understand the B.S. in Washington, I suggest you listen to the first 6 minutes. He calls out both sides which is refreshing. I learned a lot here by listening to Chip Roy and his ideas to improve Congress. I felt most of Chip’s points would be relevant to you regardless of your political beliefs. Of note, both of these Representatives are Republican.
An April 2021 Rosen Report was entitled, “Delusion & Fantasy-The Smoke and Mirrors of Social Media.” It outlined the fact that social media and the internet are not as they seem. Influencers use heavy make-up, lighting, photo editing, plastic surgery, custom clothes, borrowed jewelry, homes, cars, places to look “perfect.” I have a teenage daughter who looks at these people in awe and struggles to understand that they are not real. I personally believe social media is evil for children and is the cause of much anxiety, depression, lack of confidence and other mental issues. However, there ain’t no stopping it now. I found this article entitled, “What The Kardashians Would Look Like Without Surgery — According To An AI Generator.” Remember, a lot of what I write is out of envy. Kim has 350mm followers and is a billionaire. What I find comical is the physical difference in appearance of the Kardashian family over time. It would be hard for me to guess the cumulative number of procedures done to these women, but it must be in the dozens (breast, butt, stomach, lips, eyes, face, ribs…). Some pictures I snipped from the video in the link and others I found on line. It is not just women guilty of fraud. I read that Harrison Ford will be “de-aged” for Indiana Jones 5. What you see is not real. It is Smoke & Mirrors. Don’t forget it.
Other Headlines
Morgan Stanley’s Wilson says inflation is set to slide; warns of ‘new era’ ahead
Wilson expects a “pretty steep decline in inflation” between now and the end of next year. Consumer price increases could drop to 4% or 5% by June next year, and back to 2% or 3% by the end of 2023. I am of the belief that we will see a continued decline and the colder weather will hit electric bills further impacting the consumer, while interest rates are sharply higher.
Bob Iger returns as Disney CEO, replacing Bob Chapek after a brief, tumultuous tenure
Stock jumped 8%+ on the news, but has since come down a 3%.
Morgan Stanley says Twitter sentiment needs to turn to stop Tesla’s $500 billion slide
The TWTR experiment has been a disaster, but it is in the 1st inning. Let’s see how it plays out. I agree that a decent portion of the TSLA sell-off is due to TWTR.
Apple and Elon Musk's Twitter are on a collision course
I felt this was an interesting article and worth a look.
Violent Protests Erupt at Apple’s Main iPhone Plant in China
Bitcoin (BTC) hits 2-year low as FTX collapse contagion fears linger
BTC -67% from all-time highs.
Billionaire Investor Carl Icahn Is Betting Against GameStop (GME) Stock
Credit Suisse Warns of $1.6 Billion Loss After Clients Pull Money
Please end the misery. Break up the bank and sell it off. The bank has been a laughin stock for too long.
Bankman-Fried's FTX, senior staff, parents bought Bahamas property worth $300 mln
The more you read about this, the more absurd the story gets. One of my favorite authors, Michael Lewis, had been following SBF for months to write about him. This book/movie will be amazing.
From Tom Brady to Shaq, FTX’s Celebrity Promoters May Be On the Hook for Damages
Bill Maher slams woke college campuses: 'There is a rot, and it comes from academia'
Accountant testifies Trump claimed decade of huge tax losses
Donald Trump reported losses on his tax returns every year for a decade, including nearly $700 million in 2009 and $200 million in 2010, his longtime accountant testified Tuesday.
San Francisco election director to be replaced after 20 years for racial diversity
This is despite the fact that the Mayor of SFO wrote a letter stating that the city runs one of the best elections in the country. I applaud diversity, but if a person is doing a remarkable job, I feel it is unfair to fire that person just because they are a White male.
Supreme Court clears way for Trump tax records to be sent to Congress by IRS
Warnock is leading Herschel by four points in poll just two weeks before Georgia run-off
51/47 for Warnock in the poll. This is a race with two bad candidates.
Saudi Arabia executes 12 people with swords even after Crown Prince's promise to cut back
Twelve executions in ten days and all were males imprisoned for non-violent drug offenses. 132 executions in 2022. For perspective, the US executed 16 in 2022 and our population is 10 times larger than Saudi. This means the Saudi execution rate in 2022 is effectively 82 times more than the US when you adjust for population size.
Most common passwords of 2022—make sure yours isn't on the list
I was a little surprised to read the summary of this study.
'Avatar 2' Needs $2 Billion to Turn a Profit. James Cameron Says
Seems like a huge number to me in the new world of streaming.
Ukrainians faces a dark, cold winter testing their resilience
Temperatures dropping and daylight is running short. Over 10mm Ukrainians have left the country.
Crime Headlines
NYC carjacking crew steals BMW, crashes into accomplices' Mercedes
Elton John concert attack: Los Angeles couple beaten at Dodger Stadium
At least seven dead after 'manager' opens fire in Virginia Walmart
Man who helped pass DC criminal code overhaul shot, killed in southeast
Real Estate
When I lived in NYC, I followed the market very closely. A new development was finishing up called “Greenwich Lane.” It was developed by the Rudin family in Greenwich Village. It was a high-end building with great amenities (gym, pool, doorman, movie theater, garage) and some town homes. Given my dislike of co-ops and the Upper East Side, had I stayed in NYC, it was the kind of place I would have considered. I saw a new listing this week asking $25mm for a 4,000 foot apartment or $6,300 foot asking. The unit is 14A and has great light and finishes. It sold in the summer of 2017 for $19.5mm and again just a few months ago for $22mm. I want to put something into perspective to show the insanity of the high-end Miami market. If you spent $19.5mm in the summer of 2017 in Miami Beach on North Bay Road, you could have bought 2.5 water front lots which would be worth $50mm+ today (lots today are $20-22mm). There are other combinations you could have bought. For example, a house on North Bay and with the remaining money for another home, which today would be worth over $60mm. My point is that at the high-end, the Miami and Palm Beach market has substantially outperformed that of NYC. Also of note the homes in Miami I am referring to are double the square footage of the NYC apartment mentioned. Which view do you prefer? The 1st is out of unit 14A in Greenwich lane and the 2nd is from a home in the 50s on N. Bay Road at my friend’s house.
Investor buying of homes tumbled 30% in the third quarter, a sign that the rise in borrowing rates and high home prices that pushed traditional buyers to the sidelines are causing these firms to pull back, too. Companies bought around 66,000 homes in the 40 markets tracked by real-estate brokerage Redfin during the third quarter, compared with 94,000 homes during the same quarter a year ago. The percentage decline in investor purchases was the largest in a quarter since the subprime crisis, save for the second quarter of 2020 when the pandemic shut down most home buying.
Other R/E Headlines
Inside NYC's Grinnell co-op where units rarely list for sale
I would not live on 157th on Riverside Drive, but the apartments are large and look nice. Four units for sale, which is rare.
The 1st chart is from November 2022 and the 2nd from May of 2022. Note how big of a change in forecast.
Virus/Vaccine
Deterioration continues.
Anthony Fauci's White House farewell goes off the rails as reporters ask about COVID origins
I have written extensively that I felt Fauci failed the US citizens and should have been gone a long time ago. I dedicated a piece on it called, “Fauci Ouchie,” as well in June 2021.
China may have 'passed the point of no return' as Covid infections soar
